Professional tout and ultimate shark Bill Krackomberger isn’t offended by those terms nor the fact I’m fortunate enough to call him a friend.
Out of curiosity I searched his name on the Internet and at the top of a list of past articles came an intro from Matthew Chaprales, a contributor to a website called Buzzfeed.
It’s an accurate description of the big man with the black beret and bulging wallet.
“Professional bettors view themselves as traders of sports commodities and frequently liken their industry to Wall Street. Similar to the types of shops on Wall Street, there are betting firms of all sizes, with the major syndicates representing the JP Morgans and Goldman Sachs of the world.
“Krackomberger may be the closest thing to a lone wolf among these syndicates, but his boutique firm nonetheless features a small circle of trusted associates and confidantes, none more integral to his success than a quantitative analyst named Warren Sharp, who he meets up with in the VIP section of the Hard Rock sportsbook.”
When I sat down over brunch with the Krackman last week, he again spoke of Sharp, calling him the premier totals handicapper in the business. I only mention Sharp to let you know Krackomberger will lend an ear to those he trusts, rather than many in his field that throw figures out there and can’t back them up.
Not only does Krackomberger win, he moves lines and gets tossed out of a number of Vegas books. You see, Krackman won’t hesitate to bet amounts large enough to where books won’t take his action for fear of losing.
That’s why for the biggest sporting event in the USA, we seek his opinion. And he definitely has one for Super Bowl 51 along with some chosen words for the business he loves and makes a very good living from. If you’ve seen a photo of his girlfriend, you would want to consult him as well. He’s doing fine.
“It’s the year of the square,” he began. “Favorites and OVER. I challenge people in our business to hit over 60 percent winners. They don’t. The OVERS in the NFL were amazing this season. The books actually adjusted the lines to make it even harder this year. You would see totals in the 30’s at one time. Now it’s 40’s and higher. You will never see 30’s much again.”
Krackomberger said he bet the OVER right away when it first came out at 56.
“I hate to see I’m OVER because nobody is looking to bet UNDER,” he said. “The best line on a game is in Vegas, not offshore. You can get a low money line in town. Lay the $1.45 on 3 at the Golden Nugget. I like Atlanta at that price and to win straight up.
His top wager of all is Atlanta OVER 27 points.
“I think they will score more than 27 and New England will also score more than 27,” Krackman said. “I think (Coach Bill) Belichick will come out with a no-huddle offense. With props, Westgate will put out numbers thinking the public will bet OVER. Normally you could blanketly take UNDERS, but not so much with this Super Bowl.
“There are a lot of trees that have been chopped down to make these prop sheets,” he continued. “This year I am looking more to the OVERS. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the total go 60. Never in my life would I have bet on any game OVER at that number, but I think that is the way to go this year.”
Krackomberger will go to any book that will take his action, but the number is dwindling.
“I don’t have any collections set up for Jimmy Vaccaro at South Point or anyone else,” he said. “They have definitely been hurt on Sundays this year, but they win almost every month. MGM and Caesars will take a bet. They are at the top of my list and I use them. I can bet $3,000 on almost anything.”
Krackman isn’t likely to use local books like Station and Boyd properties because their limits are lower and they cater to the public, which often makes up most of the volume.
“Station threw me out and I’m proud of it,” he said. “They will take a dime, but not much above and I get it. They are basically a locals book and great properties. I go to casinos who will take my bets and know what to do with it.
“When gaming goes nationwide, William Hill wants to be the place. And that makes perfect sense since they want the smaller action which is what most of the public will provide.
“As for Brent Musburger’s new venture at South Point, I’ve been talking about it for days… he’ll make a ton of money. He’ll be a marketing guy, who will make more money than RJ Bell.
“Musburger has a name, but is not a handicapper and doesn’t know what I know. I am more and more open to get into that side of the business. He will see how tough it is to make 52.7 percent wins, which is what you have to do to make money.
When you talk success in sports betting it’s about spread and totals, not straight up wagers.
“If Musburger could hit 57% he would make money and if he hits 60 like Warren’s done, he’ll be great,” Krackomberger said. “… I would be open to be a part of that venture with him and I have never felt that way before.”
Krackomberger had some final comments about those in the media who will talk gambling.
“ESPN’s Chad Millman calls me an interviewer’s dream because I keep on going. The Phil Steele preview books are piled this high. So is Marc Lawrence. They don’t win. If they claim to be 55-23 straight up in college football, well if you pick 25-point favorites straight up you would win that much too.”
Krackomberger brings his computer everywhere and had it at Westgate when they first released their SB props last Thursday night.
“I just like breaking down the winner,” he said. “That’s where I make my living and proud to be doing it. I bet my own picks. I do OK.”
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