Lakers vs. Grizzlies Predictions, Odds, Props: LA Looks to Close Out Memphis in Game 5

On Monday night in LA, the Grizzlies had a 2-point lead — and control of not only Game 4, but potentially the series — in their grasp with 10 seconds to play. But they still had to get one final stop before they could head back to Memphis with the series tied at 2-2.

We all saw what happened next: a difficult layup by LeBron James just before time expired, followed by an overtime period controlled by LeBron and the Lakers (13-7), who won 117-111.

Let’s break down the Grizzlies’ chances of coming back from down 3-1 with a look at the Grizzlies-Lakers odds and props, as well as a prediction for whether the series will end in five games on Wednesday night at FedEx Forum.

Lakers vs. Grizzlies Game 5 Odds

The desperate Grizzlies are -4 at home in Game 5. Oddsmakers expect Ja Morant and homecourt to provide a lift for Memphis, which shot just 22-of-81 (27%) from three in Games 3 and 4.

Lakers vs. Grizzlies Series Price

Going into Game 5, LA’s odds to win the series range from -900 to -1000, while Memphis’ series odds are between +600 and +650.

Lakers vs. Grizzlies Betting News

Grizzlies

Memphis is going to have to improve its three-point shooting drastically — and/or rely way less on outside shooting — to push this series to six or seven games.

Take a look at the Grizzlies’ game-by-game three-point shooting for the series:

• Game 1: 13-for-36 (36.1%)
• Game 2: 11-for-36 (30.6%)
• Game 3: 13-for-39 (33.3%)
• Game 4: 9-for-42 (21.4%)

It’s bad enough to shoot just 30% from three through four games, but it’s almost impossible to win while shooting that poorly on that many attempts per game.

The key to the Grizzlies getting back in this series starts with them committing to attacking the rim, whether that’s Morant driving or Jaren Jackson Jr. posting up.

The Grizzlies have to do better inside, whether they increase their two-point attempts or not. They’re going to be lucky to keep Game 5 close if they shoot below 50% on two-point attempts (they’re at 49.6% for the series). During the regular season, the Grizzlies made 55% of their two-pointers, which shows that they’re capable.

The good news for Memphis is they’ve played solid defense through four games — only Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves have been effective from the outside for LA. As a team, the Lakers are shooting just 31.5% from three on 31.8 attempts per game. Memphis also has to be happy to have held James (24 points per game for the series) and Anthony Davis (19.5) well below their season scoring averages of 29 and 26, respectively.

Lakers

The Lakers have a stranglehold on the series following James’ late heroics in Game 4. Though he finished the game with just 18 shot attempts in 45 minutes, his team’s most important possessions featured James driving to the bucket like he was 28 years old, not 38.

The Grizzlies trail 3-1 despite James struggling from three-point land — he’s made just 5-of-27 in the series. With James content to serve as a facilitator — and a bully on the boards in Game 4, when he pulled down 20 rebounds – the Lakers have succeeded thanks to a balanced approach: five Lakers are averaging better than 14 points per game.

Offensively, the biggest surprise for LA has been Hachimura, who is averaging 18 points per game for the series on 10-for-16 three-point shooting. In 33 regular-season games with the Lakers after he joined the team via trade in January, Hachimura averaged just 9.6 points on sub-30% shooting from outside.

The Lakers have complemented their balanced scoring with outstanding defense, particularly in the paint. In addition to denying Memphis clean looks inside, LA has held the Grizzlies to 30.1% three-point shooting on 38.3 attempts per game, as James and Davis (4.8 blocks per game for the series) have kept Memphis settling for jump shots.

The Lakers’ 9.3 blocks per game as a team are a big reason they’re on their way to the second round of the playoffs.

Also: Where does LeBron sit in NBA Finals MVP odds? | NBA Championship odds

Lakers vs. Grizzlies Betting Trends

Lakers

• The Lakers are 43-43-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
• The Lakers are 17-17 ATS as the favorite, 26-26-1 ATS as the underdog
• The Lakers are 23-21 ATS at home, 20-22-1 ATS on the road
• The Lakers are 3-1 ATS with at least four days off
• The Lakers are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games
• The total has gone 46-41 on the Over in Lakers games

Grizzlies

• The Grizzlies are 38-46-2 ATS this season
• The Grizzlies are 32-32-2 ATS as the favorite, 6-14 ATS as the underdog
• The Grizzlies are 24-18-1 ATS at home, 14-28-1 ATS on the road
• The Grizzlies are 0-3 ATS with at least four days off
• The Grizzlies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
• The total has gone 39-45-2 on the Over in Grizzlies games

Read more: NBA Finals odds | NBA MVP odds | NBA odds

Lakers vs. Grizzlies Series Props

Whether you want to bet on a single game, an entire series, or back a team in the futures market to raise the Larry O’Brien, sportsbooks offer whatever you’re looking for. NBA fans can wager on props for Game 5 and/or the series. Here are a few notable Lakers-Grizzlies prop bets, along with the best price from the top US sports betting apps.

Correct Series Score

• Lakers win series, 4-2: +130 (DraftKings)
• Lakers win series, 4-1: +145 (FanDuel)
• Grizzlies win series, 4-3: +650 (DraftKings & Caesars)
• Lakers win series, 4-3: +850 (DraftKings & Caesars)

Lakers vs. Grizzlies Series & Game 5 Prediction

These teams have been too close — and the Grizzlies have been too frisky all season — to pick Memphis to lose at home in Game 5 of the first round after they earned the top seed in the West.

The law of averages says that the Grizzlies will shoot more efficiently — on fewer attempts — from three-point land. They’ll also finally focus on getting the ball inside, as difficult as that has been with James and Davis in the paint. It’s easy to envision the Grizzlies jumping out to a big first-quarter lead and finally getting James and/or Davis in enough foul trouble to make scoring at the rim a lot easier.

James, who is due for a big night offensively, will keep the Lakers in it — and prevent the Grizzlies from covering — but Memphis will give themselves another shot in Game 6, which is scheduled for Friday in LA (tipoff time TBD).

Game 5 Pick: Lakers +4.5 (-114 via BetRivers)

Series Pick: Lakers 4-2 (+130 via DraftKings)

How to Watch Lakers vs. Grizzlies Game 5

• Game Day: Wednesday, Apr. 26, 2023
• Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: FedExForum | Memphis, Tennessee
• Channel: TNT