Last Wednesday, the Atlantis sports book in Reno was the first Nevada book to post NFL season win totals. On Friday, Cantor Gaming released theirs, and coming up next will be MGM Resorts, William Hill and the LVH Super Book.
These season win totals get the professional bettors fired up because they’re sometimes able to put themselves in a no lose situation by playing every sports book against each other. For instance, they can bet the Steelers UNDER 10 wins (EV) at the Atlantis and OVER 9½ wins (-110) at Cantor Gaming and hope the Steelers win 10 games to win one bet and push on the other. The worst case scenario is losing juice on the OVER bet.
Of all the totals posted, the Steelers total stood out the most, particularly the Atlantis’ number of 10 wins. They come off an 8-8 season, but more importantly enter 2013 with too many questions. One of the biggest surrounds QB Ben Roethlisberger who hasn’t played a full season since 2008. Last season he started 13 games, and it’s more likely for his injury trend to continue at his age, than get better.
There was a full game differential with the Broncos total between the two books where Cantor has the number at 11 OVER (-120) and Atlantis 12 OVER (-130).
The Broncos won 13 games last season and figure to run through the AFC West again and contend for home field advantage, but losing only four games is a tough task, which makes betting the UNDER here a must. Or as the Sharps will do, bet the UNDER at Atlantis and OVER at Cantor and hope it lands on the probable number of 11 or 12 wins.
After a few weeks, nearly every number around town will be relatively similar as the books adjust their numbers based on the action taken. Once there is a solid consensus number, then you’ll start to see every other book post a number, which in many ways might be the proper way to go for books.
We love seeing books being competitive with their own opinions, but in the end, it’s the bettors who have all the cards. Ideally, a bookmaker would like to see bettors making plays on who they actually like rather than simply betting against the market.
A look at the numbers offered by Atlantis is at bottom of story. (See page 11 for Cantor’s take).
March gladness: Nevada sports books won a record $21.5 million on basketball in March, according to numbers released by the Nevada Gaming Commission.
The total includes winnings from both the NBA and college basketball, but the profit was mostly spurred by college hoops where the madness was reported to be greater than ever in Las Vegas.
Between pro and college basketball, the books wrote $324 million in bets, holding 6.6%, in a month that usually serves as the most consistent hold among all others. The other 11 months typically show all kinds of ups and downs with little consistency.
Thanks to March Madness, the books can usually bank on holding six to eight percent each year in March.
Avello’s Preakness odds: If looking to bet on the Preakness before Thursday pari-mutuel odds are open, go check out John Avello’s odds at the Wynn.
Avello has Kentucky Derby winner Orb as the 6-5 favorite followed by Daparting at 7-2. Itsmyluckyday is 5-1 and Goldencents is 7-1. Avello also has several matchups posted, including Orb -240 against Departing. Bettors can bet whether or not Orb will win the Triple Crown with No being -260 and Yes getting +220.
Avello and every other race book director around town will be hoping for an Orb win just to create a massive frenzy for the Belmont Stakes. Books can expect up to 40 percent more handle for Belmont if a horse is going for the Triple Crown.
Atlantis NFL Over/Under wins
Arizona Cardinals 6 Under -120;
Atlanta Falcons 10 Over -135;
Baltimore Ravens 9½ Over -120;
Buffalo Bills 5 Over -135;
Carolina Panthers 6½ Over -130;
Chicago Bears 8½ Over -145;
Cincinnati Bengals 9 Over -115;
Cleveland Browns 5 Under -150;
Dallas Cowboys 8½ Over -150;
Denver Broncos 12 Over -130;
Detroit Lions 7 Over -115;
Green Bay Packers 12 Over -115;
Houston Texans 11 Over -140;
Indianapolis Colts 8 Over -150;
Jacksonville Jaguars 4½ Over -140;
Kansas City Chiefs 6½ Over -130;
Miami Dolphins 7½ Over -115;
Minnesota Vikings 7½ Over -115;
New England Patriots 11½ Over -140;
New Orleans Saints 9½ Over -115;
New York Giants 9 Over -120;
New York Jets 7 Over -120;
Oakland Raiders 5½ Over -115;
Philadelphia Eagles 6½ Over -150;
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 Over -130;
San Diego Chargers 7 Under -130;
San Francisco 49ers 11½ Over -120;
Seattle Seahawks 11 Over -140;
St. Louis Rams 8 Over -115;
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6½ Over -115;
Tennessee Titans 6½ Under -140;
Washington Redskins 9 Under -120.
Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas race and sports book director, and longtime motorsports columnist and sports analyst at GamingToday. Follow Micah on Twitter @MicahRoberts7 Contact Micah at [email protected].