The 2023 Fiesta Bowl between the Liberty Flames and Oregon Ducks will kick off Monday, Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN. If you want to bet on the Fiesta Bowl odds, check out our Liberty vs. Oregon odds, picks, and predictions.
The final non-playoff New Year Six bowl features an undefeated group of five teams in Liberty going up against an Oregon team that was one game away from competing for a national title. According to the latest Liberty vs. Oregon odds, the Ducks will play as a point favorite with the total sitting at .
Here, we will give our best Fiesta Bowl predictions for Liberty vs. Oregon.
Liberty vs. Oregon Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total
Before making your Fiesta Bowl picks, check out the best Liberty vs. Oregon odds from our top-rated sports betting apps. This will ensure you get the best odds and lines for your wagers on the Fiesta Bowl spread, moneyline, and point total.
Liberty Flames (13-0, 9-4 ATS)
Liberty earned the group of five New Year’s Six bowl spot after an undefeated season. The Conference USA champions did not have the most challenging road, but there is something to be said about finishing the season with no losses.
While Oregon is a much better team, the Ducks will have more opt-outs and players entering the transfer portal. As of Tuesday, Dec. 26, Liberty’s offense will run at full strength, which includes star quarterback Kaidon Salter.
However, the Flames will be shorthanded on defense, as eight players have entered the transfer portal. This includes their top safety, Preston Hodge, and four players on the defensive line. With Oregon’s high-powered attack, this defense could be in for a long night.
Even if everyone from the defense was available, Oregon could still move the ball on this unit. On the season, Liberty’s defense ranked 57th in yards per play and 44th in yards per rush, and they did not do so well at getting third-down stops.
The Ducks’ offense will be without some key players at receiver and the offensive line but will have Bo Nix for one last game. Luckily, Oregon will also be without some top defensive production, which is probably the only way Liberty can compete.
With almost every regular player back for the Fiesta Bowl, the No. 5 ranked scoring offense could put up a big number over an Oregon defense that is very leaky.
Oregon Ducks (11-2, 9-3-1 ATS)
Oregon has dominated every opponent it has seen for about 95% of the season. However, two losses to Washington, with the latter coming in a win-and-in Pac-12 Championship game, kept the Ducks out of the playoffs.
In the games that did not include Washington, Oregon outscored its opposition 510-155. The defense is solid but has problems allowing big plays. This season, like most in Eugene, the offense ran the show.
Under Nix, who will play his last college game at the Fiesta Bowl, the Ducks offense ranked in the top 10 in scoring (41.1), yards per game (510.6), points per play (0.606), yards per play (7.5), yards per rush (7.5), and yards per pass (9.4).
Even with Nix back, the opt-outs and players entering the portal are a big blow to this team. Oregon’s offense will be without:
- WR: Troy Franklin (opt-out)
- WR: Kris Hutson (transfer)
- WR: Josh Delgado (transfer)
- WR: Ashton Cozart (transfer)
- RB: Dante Dowdell (transfer)
- OL: Jackson Powers-Johnson (opt-out)
The overall roster talent still favors the Ducks, but they are without a lot of depth on both sides of the ball.
Liberty vs. Oregon Betting Trends
- Liberty is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Liberty’s last seven games.
- Liberty is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games.
- Oregon is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games as the favorite.
- The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Oregon’s last 18 games.
- Oregon is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games.
Liberty vs. Oregon Prediction: Ducks Roll in the Desert
It is pretty clear that Oregon is the more talented team in the 2023 Fiesta Bowl. However, with some key players unavailable on both sides of the ball, Liberty has a real chance to finish an undefeated season with its first New Year Six bowl victory.
Both teams rank in the top five in scoring and have defenses prone to allowing big plays. With crucial defensive players out for both teams, we may be in for a high-scoring matchup.
The Flames deserve a lot of credit for going undefeated, but this Oregon team, despite the opt-outs and transfers, is infinitely more talented than any team they have seen all season. Liberty’s offensive line will have a tough time against this Oregon front seven, which could disrupt one of the best offenses in the country.
Even if Nix and the Oregon defense plays its worst game of the year, it still will not be enough to keep up with one of the top teams in the nation. The Flames will be able to move the ball, but drives stalling out or settling for field goals are the biggest concerns.
No matter what happens in the Fiesta Bowl, the first season of the Jamey Chadwell era at Liberty was a massive success. But the Ducks should cover the large spread and finish a disappointing season on a high note before they enter the Big Ten starting next season.
Fiesta Bowl Prediction: Oregon
How To Watch Liberty vs. Oregon
Date: Monday, Jan. 1, 2024
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Where to Watch: ESPN