Kentucky sports betting gains the essence of NFL betting — a wagering delight and an assessment quandary — to kick off their first day on the mobile betting platform.
Thursday’s Week 4 opener between the host Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions packs a wallop for Bluegrass State bettors pursuing “digital green.”
For all the nationwide gamblers across the vast sports-wagering landscape, here’s a look at Lions vs. Packers odds, props, and a prediction.
More action: NFL Week 4 odds | NFL Week 4 betting trends | Super Bowl 58 odds | NFL MVP odds
Early Public Betting Sentiment for Lions vs. Packers
Detroit money rode the early betting train. The game had opened at Green Bay -1.5 at DraftKings more than a week ago. A surge in Lions’ sentiment drove that number to between -1 and -1.5 early this week.
This is a great game to bet on either side because the moneyline wager is realistic for both. The winner grabs the NFC North lead.
The Over-Under total of 46 has mixed sentiment. Bettors back the Under with 59% of the handle, but only 46% of the bets at DraftKings. This indicates that the total is right about where most people think this game finishes.
Green Bay is 2-1 on the Over. Detroit is 2-1 with the Under.
Handicapping Primer for Lions vs. Packers
Detroit notched a monstrous under-the-radar roll last year. It followed a 1-6 start with an 8-2 finish, just missing the playoffs.
The Lions were an NFC North best of 6-0 against the spread and 5-1 on the moneyline, including five straight victories.
Detroit opened this year with a 21-20 triumph over the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, stumbled to a 37-31 overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and then stuffed the Atlanta Falcons 20-6.
The Packers toppled the Chicago Bears 38-20, lost 25-24 to the Falcons, and nipped the New Orleans Saints 18-17. They have waged two straight one-point games.
The Jordan Love era has begun well in place of the traded four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers.
Green Bay is already in a no-lose position.
Love is a strong quarterback and Rodgers was lost for the season four snaps into his first series as a New York Jet. Green Bay essentially has a slew of free draft picks going forward.
Love did a fine Rodgers impersonation in the Packers’ last game when the Packers came back from a 17-0 deficit after three quarters.
Green Bay became the third team in the past 30 years to win after being shut out 17-0 or worse through three periods. The others were the Carolina Panthers against the Philadelphia Eagles on Oct. 21, 2018 and the Tennessee Titans against the New York Giants on Nov. 26, 2006.
That’s rare company.
Based on how this Week 3 game was progressing, the Packers had no business winning. But New Orleans lost starting quarterback Derek Carr with a shoulder injury, Green Bay caught fire, and then New Orleans missed a potential game-winning field goal.
If Green Bay wins the division, this will be a signature moment.
Green Bay is 2-1 on the moneyline and a bizarre 3-0 against the spread to some bettors. Bizarre because in their last two games, the Packers opened the betting as favorites and wound up as a slight dog on gameday.
Packers bettors have underscored the “timing is everything” philosophy.
Early Scoring Props for Lions vs. Packers (DraftKings)
Touchdown Scorers, First and Anytime
- A.J. Dillon (+550 First, -120 Anytime)
- Aaron Jones (+650, +115)
- David Montgomery (+650, +115)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (+750, +120)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (+850, +140)
- Romeo Doubs (+900, +145)
- Christian Watson (+1100, +195)
- Sam LaPorta (+1200, +220)
This is an exceptionally tricky decision.
A star running back or receiver is usually the prime betting target, in the neighborhood of even money, regarding touchdown props.
However, additional injury factors may make some of these difficult game-time calls. Here are live lines available at multiple sportsbooks:
TNF Betting Prop Considerations
Injury Overview of Lions vs. Packers
Christian Watson
A major wild card in favor of the Packers. He became Love’s favorite receiving target last year. Their synergy is reminiscent of Rodgers and Davante Adams.
Bettors raked in plenty of money during Adams’ three straight seasons of 1,000-plus yards and 100-plus catches.
But Watson has missed the first three games with a hamstring injury. He reportedly has a better-than-average chance to return here.
The Packers face a tough decision regarding when to deploy him. A hammy can easily be aggravated and cause a longer period on the sidelines.
If the Packers hold him out, they get 10 days more to rest him. But this is a big game.
They may also have a new star in Romeo Doubs. His acrobatic catch provided the winning touchdown against the Saints. Players recording these feats often gain momentum and gamblers look to play them the next week.
David Montgomery
A stud running back for the Lions, he missed Week 3 with a thigh injury. If the Lions sit him, they get 10 more days for him to heal before the next game.
If he can’t go, Gibbs should become the workhorse. He had 17 carries for 80 yards in Week 3.
Prop and Price Shopping TNF Betting Menu (FanDuel)
Half-point shoppers seeing the Packers at +1.5 will grab that while they can.
Here are some of the countless offerings at FanDuel.
With this wager, gamblers have a higher return but must hit both the spread and the Over/Under in the same pick with the Lions’ -1.5 spread and 45.5 total.
- Detroit and the Over, +280
- Detroit and the Under, +270
- Green Bay and the Over, +260
- Green Bay and the Under, +240
First Drive Results Gets Gamblers in the Game Right Away
- Punt, +110
- Offensive touchdown, +250
- Field goal attempt, +400
- Any other, +550 (this includes a turnover, a defensive score, or a turnover on downs)
Passing Yardage
- Jordan Love, 224.5 (both sides -114)
- Jared Goff, 249.5 (both sides -114)
BetMGM Offers Unique Menu
Do you like margin-of-victory props? Here are a few for Thursday at BetMGM.
Detroit Lions
- 1-6 points, +310
- 7-12 points, +500
- 13-18 points, +775
Green Bay Packers
- 1-6 points, +310
- 7-12 points, +550
- 13-18 points, +775
One hedge some people like is to take two consecutive bands, like 1-6 and 7-12. It provides two chances to win and pays about half as much.
Score and Win Props (Both Parts of the Bet Must Hit for It to Cash)
Players to Tally Touchdown and Lions Win
- Gibbs, +160
- Montgomery, +188
- St. Brown, +200
- LaPorta, +320
- Josh Reynolds, +320
Players to Tally touchdown and Packers Win
- Jones, Dillon, Daubs, +260 (each is a separate bet)
- Watson, +300
- Jaylen Reed, +375
Read more: Offensive Rookie of the Year odds | Odds to make 2024 NFL playoffs | NFL betting sites | NFL betting promos
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