This is it: One final chance to win the individual title in the LIV Tour season-long chase.
That’s the good news. The bad news is mathematically it’s down to just three players with the opportunity to win that $18 million prize the champion will pocket.
This week’s tournament, the LIV Golf Jeddah, will be held at Royal Greens Golf and Country Club in Saudi Arabia.
The 54-hole event will see the individual payday race be determined, as well as the team seedings for next week’s finale: The Team Championship in Miami.
But we’re getting ahead of ourselves.
Let’s look at this week’s event which will be a battle among three players: Cam Smith, Talor Gooch, and a hard-charging Bryson DeChambeau.
Those three, because of their spots in the point standings, are the only three that can win the season-long points race.
Smith is on top with 170 points followed by Gooch at 162 and DeChambeau at 146. Fourth is Patrick Reed at 121.
A tournament winner receives 32 points so even if Reed wins, he only winds up at 153, which leaves him still out of the top two (depending on how the top three finish).
The points drop down quickly as eighth place is the final point-getter and is awarded just one point. There are a few permutations for Smith, Gooch, and DeChambeau to win, but both Gooch and DeChambeau will likely need a win or, at worst, a second-place finish.
And Smith can put all the math numbers to rest with a victory.
Let’s take a look at who just might pick up the 32 points, as well as the $4 million first-place check in our LIV Golf Jeddah odds and predictions.
Odds To Win the LIV Tour Jeddah Event by Caesars
| Player | Caesars Sportsbook |
|---|---|
| Bryson DeChambeau | +800 |
| Cameron Smith | +1000 |
| Dustin Johnson | +1200 |
| Talor Gooch | +1400 |
| Abraham Ancer | +1500 |
| Brooks Koepka | +1600 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +1800 |
| Anirban Lahiri | +2000 |
| Mito Pereira | +2000 |
| Patrick Reed | +2000 |
| Marc Leishman | +2500 |
| Harold Varner III | +2800 |
| Sergio Garcia | +3300 |
| Jason Kokrak | +3500 |
| Henrik Stenson | +3500 |
| Dean Burmester | +3500 |
We list odds from Caesars but shop around at other top-rated sportsbooks to find the best prices on your plays.
Which Brooks Koepka Will Show Up?
Brooks Koepka, who is +1600 this week, won last year’s Jeddah event when he beat Peter Uihlein in a playoff.
It was Koepka’s first LIV win. He also won on the LIV Tour earlier this year in Orlando but that’s where the positivity ends.
In his last four events, he has had no finishes in the top 15 and in his last three outings, he was 41st, 38th, and 26th.
That doesn’t give us a whole lot of confidence this week that he’s going to repeat.
And that’s especially true since he’s also coming in after a 1-1-1 record for Team USA in the Ryder Cup where Team Europe earned the victory.
We’re going to stay away from a defending champ winning as he’s been too hot and cold for us… and, lately, way too cold.
It’s Talor Gooch Time
We’re back on the Talor Gooch bandwagon this week.
He has the best chance to steal the big prize away from Cam Smith as well as win his fourth event of the season.
Gooch, who is +1400 this week, has three wins (Smith and DeChambeau both have two victories) including back-to-back earlier in the year.
Granted, he hasn’t won over the past four events but he also had the top finish of the trio here last year.
And Gooch comes into this event after a seventh-place finish in the last event in Chicago while Smith wound up 40th.
DeChambeau has won two of the last three tournaments, but he was only 21st at Jeddah last year (tied with Smith) while Gooch was 12th.
That’s a lot of numbers to digest but the one number we’re banking on is that he has three wins this season after having not been able to win in his years on the PGA Tour.
We’re Going Out on a Limb With Lahiri Again
We backed Anirban Lahiri in the last event when he wound up third.
That gives Lahiri, who is +2000 this week, a second and a third in the last two LIV events.
Those last two finishes, along with another second-place finish earlier this season, have moved him into 10th in the player standings.
When you look at the guys who he is ahead of — players like Joaquin Niemann, Marc Leishman, Sergio Garcia, and others — he’s starting to make his way into contention more often.
He still hasn’t won on either tour, but he’s been oh-so-close.
He had two runner-up finishes on the PGA Tour before jumping to the LIV Tour where he also has a pair of runner-up finishes.
It’s just a matter of time before he puts everything together and his last two impressive finishes show he’s right there.
Plus, a win would move him into the top five (and possibly as high as No. 3), which would mean an even bigger payday.
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