Before breaking down the Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Champions League Round of 16 Leg 1 odds, props, and predictions, it’s worth looking back at the last time these teams met.
Last May, four years after meeting on the same stage in the 2018 Champions League Final, Liverpool and Real Madrid clashed in Paris. Thanks to a massive performance by Thibaut Courtois, Los Blancos raised the trophy despite being outshot 9-1.
This season, Liverpool have only a top-four spot to play for in the EPL, and Real Madrid are eight points behind first-place Barcelona in La Liga. But these teams are still among oddsmakers’ favorites in the Champions League futures market. Entering Tuesday’s matchup, Liverpool have the third-shortest odds (+900) of the 16 teams in the field to win the UCL, while Real Madrid have the fifth-shortest (+1100).
As for Tuesday’s game, Liverpool are the clear favorites, according to both oddsmakers and FiveThirtyEight. The analytics site gives Liverpool a 41% chance of winning, pegging the chance of a Real Madrid win at 35% and a draw at 23%.
While neither Liverpool nor Real Madrid (16-3-3) have lived up to expectations in league play (in the latter’s case), they just haven’t kept stride with a Barcelona side that have been nearly perfect — both played well in the Champions League group stage. Liverpool captured 15 of 18 possible points but finished second behind Napoli in Group A. Real Madrid finished first in Group F ahead of Red Bull Leipzig, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Celtic.
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Odds: Moneyline & Total
Here are the betting lines from top US sportsbooks for Tuesday’s Champions League match between Liverpool and Real Madrid. The odds are likely to change between now and kickoff, and it’s always advised to weigh the options at various sports betting apps to find the best sportsbook bonuses and prices.
These odds reflect the prices for both sides on the three-way line, where a bet on either team is a loss in the event of a draw. DraftKings lists the draw at +265, while FanDuel offers +250 and BetRivers lists it at +255.
SOCCER · Tue (2/21) @ 3:00 pm ET
|Anfield, Liverpool, GB|
Liverpool Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
What a difference a week has made for Jurgen Klopp’s side. They entered last Monday’s Merseyside derby against Everton in the midst of an abysmal stretch, but have rebounded over the last seven days. After beating Everton 2-0 on Feb. 13, Liverpool got a huge win in the top-four race over Newcastle (also by a score of 2-0) on Saturday.
Those results — which coincided with the return of not only star center back Virgil van Dijk but also Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino as subs — have improved Liverpool’s immediate outlook dramatically. Sportsbooks have taken notice, with DraftKings shortening Liverpool’s odds for a top-four Premier League finish to +130.
There are still concerns in the midfield for Liverpool. But with van Dijk returning to anchor a back line that has produced back-to-back shutouts and Mo Salah getting big contributions up top from Darwin Núñez and Cody Gakpo (the pair combined for three goals and an assist total against Everton and Newcastle), Liverpool look dangerous again.
It’s still too early to say for sure, but if January addition Gakpo and Núñez have found their footing under Klopp, Liverpool are going to be a problem. And they’re that much more dangerous with Jota and Firmino (they each played 31 minutes against Newcastle) back on the pitch.
One bit of bad news that came out of the win over Newcastle on Saturday was a shoulder injury to Núñez that could limit or keep him out of Tuesday’s match against Liverpool. But with Firmino and Jota available, the Reds have alternatives to pair with Gakpo and Salah.
Liverpool will also be missing center back Ibrahima Konate, winger Luis Diaz, or midfielder Thiago Alcantara.
Real Madrid Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
Last year, Real Madrid took down one Champions League favorite after another en route to the title, eliminating PSG in the Round of 16, Chelsea in the quarterfinals, and Manchester City in the semis before the final against Liverpool.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side showed a knack for comebacks throughout their run, stunning both PSG and City in victories that required late heroics. The story for Real Madrid was Karim Benzema being even more dominant than usual. The Frenchman scored 15 Champions League goals in ’22-23, including a total of 10 in the two-leg Round of 16, quarterfinal, and semifinal wins over PSG, Chelsea, and Man City.
The question is whether Real Madrid can make more noise this year if they are not better defensively — last year, they needed three goals over two legs against PSG, five against Chelsea, and six against City. Scoring goals has been no problem for Benzema and Co. this season — they lead La Liga with 46 in 22 games — but they’ve sometimes struggled to defend against top opponents.
After starting Champions League group play with shutouts of Celtic and RB Leipzig, Madrid gave up six goals in their final four group games last fall, including a 3-2 loss to RB Leipzig on October 25.
With Luka Modric and Toni Kroos still playing at a high level in the midfield, and Fede Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, and Eduardo Camavinga giving Ancelotti impressive depth in the middle of the pitch, that area remains a massive strength.
Benzema alone gives this team a ton of firepower up top, but Vinicius and Rodrygo have also emerged as stars in their own right. With Marco Asensio in form as well, the RM attack is much more balanced and dangerous than it was prior to Vini Jr.’s breakout 2021-22 season when he exploded for 10 goals and seven assists in La Liga.
As Liverpool fans recall all too well, Courtois showed in last year’s Champions League final why he’s arguably the best keeper in the world. But the matchup that will likely decide this game is how well the RM back line can limit chances for Liverpool. With just one goal allowed in their last six matches in La Liga, that group — led by David Alaba and Antonio Rudiger — has been outstanding over the last month. Their strong play has come despite left back Ferland Mendy’s absence due to a thigh injury.
Against Liverpool, Real Madrid will not have Mendy, Kroos (illness), or Tchouameni (illness).
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Props
Below is a sampling of props for Liverpool vs. Real Madrid.
Anytime Goalscorer (FanDuel):
- Karim Benzema: +160
- Mo Salah, Darwin Núñez: +170
- Diogo Jota: +185
- Rodrygo: +250
- Vinicius: +280
Correct Score (FanDuel):
- Liverpool 1-0: +900
- Liverpool 2-0: +1200
- Liverpool 2-1: +800
- Real Madrid 1-0: +1100
- Real Madrid 2-0: +1700
- Real Madrid 2-1: +1000
- 0-0: +1200
- 1-1: +600
Total Goal Props (DraftKings):
- Over 0.5 goals -6000, Under 0.5 goals: +1300
- Over 1.5 goals -475, Under 1.5 goals: +350
- Over 2.5 goals -145, Under 2.5 goals: +115
- Over 3.5 goals +175, Under 3.5 goals: -220
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Broadcast Info: Where to Watch
- Date/Time: Tuesday, Feb. 21, 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Anfield
Watch this match at one of the following:
- fubo TV
- DirecTV Stream
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Prediction: Liverpool 2, Real Madrid 1
It’s hard to recommend betting against Liverpool at Anfield in the Champions League. It’s that much more questionable after Klopp’s team’s gutty Premier League win at Newcastle on Saturday. Real Madrid won a number of Champions League games a year ago in which the statistics indicated they were outplayed, none more than the final against Liverpool. At a raucous Anfield, I like Liverpool’s chances to (at least temporarily) avenge the UCL Final losses to Real Madrid in both ’18 and ’22.
While Real Madrid have been impressive in their last two matches in La Liga, they haven’t faced an opponent like Liverpool — or an atmosphere like Anfield — in a while. They also face a tough upcoming schedule. After returning from Liverpool, RM host Atletico Madrid on Saturday, then welcome Barcelona to the Bernabeu on March 2. Given the tough spot for Real Madrid, a hard-fought, 2-1 Liverpool win is the pick.
Here are a few bets available at DraftKings that are worth checking out:
- Liverpool (+130)
- Parlay: Liverpool Win, Under 3.5 (+130)