With changes in 12 of the top 13 ranked teams in college football this week, the NCAA season is in full effect.
With all the movement and excitement at mid-season, I went and spoke to one of the most respected people in the business, my friend, Jay Kornegay. The Executive Vice President of Race and Sports Operations at the SuperBook at the Westgate told me that this has been a good season for the book, winning consistently.
He went on to say that the SuperBook are fans of Clemson and Ohio State, meaning that they have liability on Alabama and Oklahoma. Currently, they have the odds to win the National Championship at Alabama at 2-1, Clemson at 3-1, Ohio State at 9-2, Oklahoma at 5-1 and LSU at 7-1.
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The SuperBook gave me an exclusive on a new contest and event. The Silver and Black Watch Party will begin this Sunday as the Raiders take on the Packers. Some of the prizes include an all-inclusive with airfare, hotel and tickets for two to the final game of the season in Oakland this year. They also have a prize of tickets, airfare, and hotel accommodations for two, to opening night here in Las Vegas next year.
Jay wanted to remind everyone not to forget the SuperBook Reboot Mid-season Contest. You don’t have to be in the original contest. This is for Weeks 9 through 17, and the deadline is November 2nd, with an entry fee of $500.
Here are this week’s Best Bets (As always, a reminder that the lines are as of Tuesday and can change. If a line is around a Hot Number or moves against us, be smart):
Boise State -6.5 at BYU: Boise State has had their way with BYU, taking the last three in this series, including a 24-7 win and cover in Provo, two years ago.
The Cougars starting quarterback Zach Wilson is out and backup Jaren Hall (check status) is listed as questionable with concussion-like symptoms. This is a team riding a three-game losing streak and no cover slide, dropping five of the last six as a home ‘dog.
Undefeated BSU (6-0 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) should see the return of Hank Bachmeier. But, even if the quarterback doesn’t go, backup Chase Cord (295 yards passing, 6 TDs) will step in nicely to lead the 11th ranked passing unit in the nation.
Look for the Broncos’ RB tandem of Robert Mahome and George Holani (741 yards rushing, six TD’s combined) to trample the 123rd ranked run defense of the Cougars. BOISE STATE
Oregon -3 at Washington: I’m sure many bettors will take Washington here getting points at Husky Stadium for the first time in four years. However, the Huskies have let some mediocre offenses put up points on them and the 23-13 loss to Stanford as a 13.5-point favorite just doesn’t sit right with me.
The Oregon offense (30.0 PPG) will score at will in this matchup. But, it is their third-ranked defense (8.7 PPG allowed) that will shine here. The Ducks are 5-1 ATS the last six at the Huskies and 12-3-1 ATS the last 16 overall against the Huskies. OREGON
Kentucky at Georgia -25: I really do feel bad for Kentucky here. Georgia comes off their first loss of the season, dropping seven spots in the polls. Last week’s 20-17 defeat at the hands of South Carolina is going to motivate them this week. They will take out their frustrations and make a statement to the pollsters. The Bulldogs have won nine straight in this series, going 7-2 ATS, covering the last six meetings.
The Wildcats are forced to go with Lynn Bowden Jr. (a converted wide receiver) at quarterback due to injuries. This is not a very good offense (99th, 23.5 PPG) to begin with and now they face the stout Bulldogs seventh-ranked stop-unit (12.3 PPG allowed).
Expect quarterback Jake Fromm (70.4 percent completion rate, 1,371 yards passing, 9 TDs, 3 INTs) to bounce back in a big way after the worst performance of his collegiate career.The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS the last seven vs. conference opponents. GEORGIA
LSU -19 at Mississippi State: The second-ranked Tigers own the nation’s top-scoring offense (52.5 PPG) on the No. 2 passing unit in college football. They must keep their foot on the gas as they have Texas A&M up next and the Crimson Tide in two weeks.
They will beat up on a 3-3 (2-4 ATS) Mississippi State team that doesn’t score too much (26.8 PPG) and just can’t seem to stop anyone from reaching the end zone (27.2 PPG allowed). The key mismatch is Joe Burrow (2,157 yards passing, 79.6 percent completion rate, 25 TDs, 3 INTs) and potent aerial attack of the Tigers going up against the 75th ranked pass defense of the Rebels.
LSU is 9-3 ATS the last 12 at the Rebels, 4-0 ATS the last four on the road, and 12-4 ATS the last 16 vs. the SEC. LSU
Last week: 2-2