Louisville vs NC State Odds & Predictions: Value with the Road Favorite in this ACC Showdown

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Week 5 of the college football season features an exciting Friday night matchup as the NC State Wolfpack hosts the Louisville Cardinals. With Kentucky sports betting now available online, local fans can also jump in on the action.

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Louisville enters this game undefeated, and one more win should be enough for them to sneak into next week’s AP Top 25 poll. While they have had a couple of close calls, the Cardinals’ offense is the best unit in this game, led by transfer quarterback Jack Plummer. Meanwhile, NC State is 3-1, but their only loss came against Notre Dame, and the Wolfpack kept it close before the Irish pulled away late in the fourth quarter. 

As of Wednesday afternoon, Louisville is playing as a point favorite with the total sitting at . This should be an exciting Friday night game, and if you need help picking a side, we have got you covered as we break down the Louisville vs. NC State odds and give our best prediction. 

Louisville vs. NC State Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Here are the up-to-date Louisville vs. NC State odds from some of the best sports betting apps:

Louisville Cardinals (4-0, 2-2 ATS)

The first year of the Jeff Brohm era has started strong, as Lousiville is undefeated, and they have had one of the best offenses in the country. While they have not played a particularly hard schedule, the offense ranks 14th in scoring (38.7), eighth in points per play (0.601), and fifth in yards per play (7.7). 

Most of the success on offense comes from explosive plays. They rank 17th in yards per rush (5.3), third in yards per pass (11.6), and they have the most plays of 40+ yards this season (12), and they have 219 20+ yard plays as well. 

Although the passing attack led by Jack Plummer has led to more explosive plays, the running back room has quietly been one of the best in the country, led by Jawhar Jordan. On the season, Jordan has 478 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. He also ranks second in all-purpose yardage (676), and he leads the nation in plays from scrimmage that result in 30+ yard gains. 

The offensive line has also been really good in the passing game, which allows this insanely talented skill room more time to get open. The run-blocking has not been all that great, but you cannot argue the results at this point. 

Defensively, they struggle, especially against the pass. This secondary ranks 103rd in yards per pass, and while they have some talent up-front, they have not produced a lot of pressures. Luckily, NC State’s offense is fairly mediocre, which is a massive advantage for the Cardinals in this game. 

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NC State Wolfpack (3-1, 0-4 ATS)

The Wolfpack are 3-1, which is the most important thing. However, they are not playing up to expectations, as they have yet to cover in a single game this season, which is mildly concerning when three of the four teams you have faced are pretty bad.

Not only has the defense been bad, but the offense ranks towards the bottom in the FBS in explosive plays, and they only have 12 offensive touchdowns so far. Losing a top-tier quarterback in the offseason certainly did not help, and replacing him with Brennan Armstrong, who has not been ‘good’ since 2021, has not fixed things. 

The offensive line has been good in pass-block situations, which should help as Lousivlle does not get a lot of pressure in the backfield, but with no threat of a pass or run game, NC State’s defense will have to pick up the slack. 

While most of the damage against the defense came in the Notre Dame game, NC State’s pass defense has not been great. They consistently leave guys open, and they do not tackle very well. There are some really talented players on this unit, but based on what we have seen, they could be in for a long night against Louisville’s offense. 

Louisville vs. NC State Betting Trends


  • Louisville is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Louisville’s last nine games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Louisville’s last six games against the ACC.
  • Louisville is 4-12 SU in its last 16 road games.

NC State

  • NC State is 0-5 ATS in its last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of NC State’s last five games. 
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of NC State’s last five games against Louisville.
  • NC State is 17-2 SU in its last 19 home games.

Read: How to bet on CFB | Heisman Trophy odds | NCAAF National Championship odds

Louisville vs. NC State Prediction: Cardinals Stay Perfect With Big Road Win

NC State has had a lot of success at Carter-Findley Stadium recently. However, they also just went through one of the best runs in school history with now-Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary. Obviously, they were going to take a step back this season, especially with the amount of talent they have sent off to the NFL over the last couple of years. 

While Lousiville has not been all that great as a road underdog, this is a much-improved team. They brought in a ton of top-end transfer talent this offseason, including a quarterback familiar with Brohm’s system. 

Even though the defense has not lived up to expectations, this is a very talented unit, and they are facing an NC State offense that has yet to show any real signs of life. Outside of their Week 2 win over VMI, NC State’s offense only averages 24 points per game. If Lousivlle’s offense continues to rip off chunk plays, 24 points simply will not be enough to win this game. 

This is not a great NC State team, and Lousiville’s defensive talent should shine and keep the Wolfpack out of the endzone. Although the Louisville vs. NC State odds indicate a tight game, as long as the offense continues to do what it has all season, the Cardinals will win and cover the spread. 

Pick: Louisville

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How To Watch Louisville vs. NC State

  • Date: Friday, Sept. 29, 2023
  • Kick Off: 7 p.m. ET
  • Location: Carter-Findley Stadium — Raleigh, NC
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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