LSU At Alabama: Week 10 Betting Odds And Prediction

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A ’Bama quarterback is in the thick of a Heisman Trophy race. The Tide have larger targets, but having Bryce Young—the current Heisman favorite most everywhere—back there is a nice conduit to achieving those goals.

Against the Bayou Bengals, Young might have a field day and post computer-game numbers. Certain parts of the Tide secondary, however, should allow LSU quarterback Max Johnson to thrive, too.

Should Alabama get its usual 52 points at home and the Tigers get their typical 23 on the road, this hits with no sweat.

LSU At Alabama Odds

Our Pick: Over 66 (-110)

LSU LSU vs ALA Alabama Odds NCAAF Odds

NCAAF · Sat (11/6) @ 7:05pm ET

LSU LSU at ALA Alabama
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL

Claim a $50 free bet with a $5 deposit at DraftKings

LSU Tigers (4-4)

The emergence of Johnson, a 6-foot-5, 220-pound sophomore from Athens, Geo., sent Myles Brennan into the transfer portal, where perhaps he’ll cross paths with Rico from the Dr. Pepper commercial.

Johnson has completed 61.4% of his attempts, for 2,008 yards (7.6 yards per pass) and 20 touchdowns, and five have been picked off. He’s also fumbled it away five times.

If the Bengals are going to keep this one close, Johnson will have to be successful against a Tide defense allowing foes to complete 65% of their attempts, which is in the bottom quarter of the country.

Alabama allows a middle-of-the-road 226 passing yards a game. LSU averages 283, among the nation’s top 25 teams. It is very disciplined, with scant penalties, where its opponents have been horrible.

Plus, only five teams have been more lethal scoring inside the red zone, where the Tigers come away with points 95% of the time. All of that will have to come into play for LSU to be within striking range of Alabama in the final 15 minutes.

Bet TypeSpreads
Open

No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)

Why is ’Bama so good? It opens and closes games with authority. Its average of 12.4 first-quarter points is fifth in the country, its 11.9 fourth-quarter average ties it with Notre Dame at fourth.

The Tide runs the ball 51% of the time, passes at a 49% clip. Many coaches preach about the importance of balance, and it doesn’t get much better than what Alabama is doing. Defenses could almost flip a coin, trying to guess what’s coming their way.

That, though, might be a fallacy in Tuscaloosa. When the Tide is dominant, like when it won national championships to cap the 2015 and ’17 campaigns, its ground game is merciless; its run rate was 57.4% in the former, 63.3% in the latter.

Its lone defeat, so far, arrived when it had collected 522 total yards at Texas A&M, to the Aggies’ 379. Alabama, though, turned it over twice to A&M’s single giveaway. A&M won, 41-38.

With Young at the controls, the Tide averages 0.596 points per play, fifth in the land. Its third-down conversion rate is No. 1, at 61.3%, on fourth down (71.4%) it’s 14th—the LSU defense is horrific in those areas. Alabama also owns a top-10 red-zone scoring rate.

Jameson Williams, formerly of Ohio State, is a prized receiver who has a top-20 710 receiving yards and a 20.3-yard average, eighth in the nation. Fellow junior John Metchie’s 52 receptions are in the top 20, too.

Sports Betting Recommendation

The past two meetings between these two squads produced 72 and 87 total points, respectively. Two of our models show 64 and 65 points being scored, the other 69. These two will light up the Tuscaloosa evening.

 

About the Author
Rob Miech

Rob Miech

Rob Miech is a writer and contributor for Gaming Today, covering soccer and producing sports betting features. He has written about college hoops for the Las Vegas Sun, CBS SportsLine and the Pasadena Star-News. He is the author of four books, including Sports Betting for Winners.

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