We had four days of baseball last week and to say the least it was very eventful as far as results.
I had some winners and losers. The books must have done okay except for the OVER bettors. Favorites were ahead 23-20 vs. the underdogs.
The big thing was that the pitching for the most part stunk. The OVER was way ahead of UNDER, 29-15. That’s a big discrepancy, especially this time of the year.
So what has happened to all the good pitching? We will continue to follow this trend and report next week.
If you have been following this column over the years you may remember how I loved to bet on the +1½ runs when getting even or plus money; but that bet has just about evaporated.
Even when you find a rare bet, the price is around 20 to 30 cents lower than it was three years ago. The books have followed suit with the Islands and adjusted big time. Even if you are laying -1½ runs you are getting the worst of the price.
We will just pass on the run lines and stick with the streaks, which books can’t adjust to. A winner is a winner.
One of the streaks involved the futures bet on the OVER wins with Baltimore getting a road sweep of Tampa Bay – a team I bet UNDER total season wins. The O’s did it with great pitching. All three road wins went UNDER and the prices were all good ones. The first win was at +175.
The Brewers lost all their games, the Rangers got a surprising sweep of the Red Sox as their bats were booming against the now 0-3 Red Sox.
The Phillies began 3-0 and stay at home to play the Mets, who went 2-1 at Florida. This may be a good three-game series with some attractive dog prices on the Mets.
The Astros lost all three of their games in Philadelphia and now must go to Cincinnati, which is off a home sweep of the Brewers. The Reds will be a good team to use in parlays in this series.
The Royals won three of four from the Angels in Kansas City and will play the White Sox in a short two-game series in Chicago.
It’s a long season so start slow; we will keep following all the good trends. Don’t forget those first five inning bets, especially early in the year when betting a good pitcher who may only go five or six.
We’re just four Saturdays away from the most exciting two minutes in sports and the next big betting event in Las Vegas. This past Sunday we had the Florida Derby, one of the big preps for the Kentucky Derby. The speedy Shackleford almost stole the race at a huge price but was caught on the line by Dialed In, one of the KD favorites.
Trained by the ever popular Nick Zito, who is no stranger to the Florida Derby or the Kentucky Derby, Dialed In will be a serious threat that first Saturday in May. He will need some things to go perfectly being a deep closer in a 20 horse field.
The favorite, Soldat, never could get into contention and the rest were not around. That includes the highly regarded To Honor and Serve trained by Bill Mott, who has been colder than last year’s Florida Derby winner Ice Box.
The Derby picture gets fuzzier each and every week, but this Friday at the Palace Station race book, Vic Vivio, Ralph Siraco and yours truly will clear it up at the racing seminar.
Vivio, the race guy at Palace, is a top handicapper in his own right and a man with a serious opinion. Siraco is the main man on his Race Day Las Vegas and Bad Beat radio shows. He’s won many contests here in Vegas and is one of the sharpest handicapping minds I have met over the years.
Ralph and I have been friends since he arrived in Vegas in the 70’s and we own some responsibility for the big growth of racing. And, I will come up with a winner now and then.
The seminar is free and starts at 6 p.m. Our host, Josh Pool, director of the Palace Station Race and Sports Book, will be serving dinner and drinks for free at 5:30. The book will be packed so come early, get a good seat and stay for the seminar. I will be there early to bet so stop by and say hi. I just may be able to pass on a good play at Santa Anita.