Manchester City vs. Newcastle Odds, Props & Pick: Are Heavily Favored City Vulnerable to an Upset?

Manchester City host Newcastle on Sunday in a game that Pep Guardiola’s side must win to keep pace with first-place Arsenal in the Premier League title race. In Gaming Today’s analysis of Manchester City vs. Newcastle odds, props, and pick, we’ll consider whether heavily favored City are vulnerable to an upset, or whether Newcastle — winless in the Premier League since Jan. 15 — can get a surprise result.

Based on the Premier League table alone, Newcastle (41 points through 23 matches) remain in the thick of the battle for a coveted top-4 finish, as they are right on the heels of fourth-place Tottenham (45 points through 25 games). With two games in hand on Spurs and Fulham and one on Liverpool, Newcastle’s hopes of qualifying for the Champions League in ’23-24 are even stronger than they appear to be at first glance, even after a stretch of three draws and a loss in their last four matches.

In addition to struggling in the Premier League in recent weeks, Newcastle lost the Carabao Cup Final to Manchester United last Sunday.

City, on the other hand, have won three of their last four in the EPL, but looked vulnerable in a 1-1 draw against Champions League Round of 16 foe RB Leipzig on Feb. 22.

These teams drew 3-3 at St James Park on Aug. 21 in their first matchup this year.

Manchester City vs. Newcastle Odds: Moneyline & Total

Here are the betting lines from top US sportsbooks for Saturday’s Premier League battle between Manchester City and Newcastle. The odds are likely to change between now and kickoff, and it’s always advised to weigh the options at various sports betting apps to find the best sportsbook bonuses and prices.

These odds reflect the prices for both sides on the three-way line, where a bet on either team is a loss in the event of a draw. DraftKings lists the draw at +400, while FanDuel offers +380 and Caesars offers +340.

Manchester City Roster, Injuries, and Betting News

City’s depth has allowed them to raise one Premier League trophy after another in recent years. Guardiola’s side features so many quality options at nearly every position that one of his greatest challenges is choosing how to line up his team for their biggest matches. While that has often proven costly in the Champions League, the luxury of having elite players on the sidelines makes City difficult to beat during the grind of the Premier League season, which requires teams with championship aspirations to rely on key contributors outside the first-choice XI. Case in point: Last weekend, City blew out Bournemouth 4-1, with Kyle Walker, Kalvin Phillips, and Riyad Mahrez all coming in off the bench.

The biggest issue for City this year has been inconsistency. In the last month alone, they’ve shown they have a gear no EPL rival can match with 3-1 wins over Aston Villa on Feb. 12 and Arsenal on Feb. 15, as well as last weekend’s romp against Bournemouth. But they’ve also inexplicably drawn Nottingham Forest and played poorly in a 1-0 loss to Tottenham in recent weeks. Surprising results like those are the biggest reason why City are five points back of Arsenal in the title race and on pace for “only” 83.6 points after finishing with 93 last season.

Roster

The biggest name on the roster for City is 22-year-old Erling Haaland, who scored his 27th goal of the season against Bournemouth and is well on his way to winning the Golden Boot. Haaland is just one of many stars at Guardiola’s disposal, though, with veterans Kevin de Bruyne, Ruben Dias, Rodri, Ilkay Gundogan, Bernardo Silva, and Kyle Walker complemented by younger standouts Phil Foden and Julian Alvarez, to name a few.

Injuries

City are mostly healthy at the moment, though they are without center backs John Stones and Aymeric Laporte.

Newcastle Roster, Injuries, and Betting News

Newcastle are one of the biggest surprises of the EPL season. Though they finished strong a year ago, they were not considered a strong contender to finish top-4 prior to the season. But they got off to a great start to the season, and despite some struggles since returning from the World Cup, they’re among several teams with a legitimate shot to finish fourth behind Arsenal, Manchester City, and Manchester United.

On DraftKings, Newcastle’s top-4 odds are +150. Oddsmakers see Tottenham (+125) and Liverpool (+175) as Newcastle’s top competition for fourth place.

They’ll have to improve on their recent form offensively, though. In their last seven games, Newcastle have scored just three goals. Somehow, they’ve earned results in all but one of those matches (with a record of 1-5-1) during that stretch. No team in the Premier League has allowed fewer goals than Newcastle (15 in 23 matches on the year), but their inability to score has made them all too dependent on getting clean sheets to have a chance.

Roster

One development that should help is the return of star midfielder Bruno Guimaraes, who missed his team’s last three Premier League games due to a suspension. In his first game back from suspension, last Sunday’s EFL Cup Final loss to Manchester United, Guimaraes played 78 minutes but left the game with an ankle injury.

If he’s back at 100% this weekend, he’d provide a massive boost, as his team’s form without him suffered in draws against West Ham and Bournemouth and a 2-0 loss to Liverpool on Feb. 18.

It will be interesting to see whether Manager Eddie Howe turns to forward Alexander Isak to spark the attack. Isak has three goals in five Premier League starts this season and should get more minutes given his team’s lack of offense throughout January and February.

Injuries

Guimaraes’ fitness is easily Howe’s biggest concern on the injury front.

Manchester City vs. Newcastle Props

Below is a sampling of props for Manchester City vs. Newcastle.

Anytime Goalscorer (FanDuel):

• Erling Haaland: -145
• Julian Alvarez: +140
• Riyad Mahrez: +170
• Callum Wilson: +340
• Alexander Isak: +390

Correct Score (FanDuel):

• Man City 1-0: +650
• Man City 2-0: +600
• Man City 2-1: +700
• Newcastle 1-0: +2300
• Newcastle 2-0: +4300
• Newcastle 2-1: +2300
• 0-0: +1500
• 1-1: +800

Total Goal Props (DraftKings):

• Over 0.5 goals -8000, Under 0.5 goals: +1500
• Over 1.5 goals -525, Under 1.5 goals: +370
• Over 2.5 goals -155, Under 2.5 goals: +125
• Over 3.5 goals +160, Under 3.5 goals: -205

Manchester City vs. Newcastle Broadcast Info: Where to Watch

• Date/Time: Saturday, March 4, 7:30 a.m. ET
• Location: Etihad Stadium

Watch this match at one of the following:

• USA Network
• Universo
• fubo TV
• DirecTV Stream
• Sling Blue
• Sling Latino

Manchester City vs. Newcastle Prediction: Man City 2, Newcastle 1

Based on Newcastle’s recent form, it’s hard to see them getting a result at the Etihad. Guimaraes, if 100%, would potentially be a difference-maker, Right now, though, whether Guimaraes is fit or not, it’s hard to imagine Newcastle generating enough offense to challenge Manchester City.

The question for City is which version of them will show up, but against a solid opponent — and coming off back-to-back easy victories — I don’t expect a letdown. With 11 draws in 23 matches, Newcastle could once again earn a point despite struggling to create chances, but another 0-0 or 1-1 finish seems like a lot to ask against a team like City.

Here are a few bets available at DraftKings that are worth checking out:

• Parlay — Man City Win, Over 2.5 (+105)
• Both Teams To Score — Yes (-115)

Also read: Premier League futures | 2026 World Cup odds