Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Odds, Props, Predictions: City Remain Favorites After Leg 1 Draw

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Real Madrid tuned out all the talk about how overmatched they would be against Manchester City last Tuesday. In Leg 1 of these teams’ semifinal showdown, RM scored first at the Santiago Bernabeu and reminded everyone of their Champions League pedigree.

A year ago, Los Blancos needed a huge late comeback in Leg 2 to eliminate City in the semifinals. This year, Real Madrid visits Manchester for Leg 2 with the tie at 1-1. Oddsmakers, however, still have the hosts as heavy favorites, both to win the second leg and to advance to the final.

In Gaming Today’s breakdown of Manchester City vs. Real Madrid odds, props, and prediction, we’ll break down the decisive second leg between Pep Guardiola’s Premier League juggernaut and Carlo Ancelotti’s reigning UCL champs.

Also read: Premier League futures | 2026 World Cup odds

Betting Odds for Wednesday’s Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Match

Here are Manchester City vs. Real Madrid betting lines available on top sports betting apps.

The prices below apply to Leg 2 on Wednesday. Sportsbooks also offer both teams’ odds to advance to the final in Istanbul on June 10.

City are heavily favored to advance on DraftKings  (-340), FanDuel (-340), and Caesars (-333). Real Madrid are the underdogs to qualify on DraftKings and FanDuel (+260), while Caesars offers Los Blancos at +240.

Real Madrid vs Manchester City Odds SOCCER Odds

SOCCER · Wed (5/17) @ 3:00 pm ET

Real Madrid at Manchester City
Etihad Stadium, Manchester, GB

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Manchester City Roster, Injuries, and Betting News

City remain undefeated since Feb. 5, having won most of those matches with ease. But while Guardiola and Co. avoided losing the first leg of the Champions League semifinal against Real Madrid last week, they were by no means dominant at the Bernabeu. That’s noteworthy for a team that’s looked untouchable the last couple of months, especially against its best opponents.

On paper, Real Madrid don’t have quite enough firepower to match Man City, especially when you compare the talent on the bench for these teams.

But the Madrid back line of Dani Carvajal, Antonio Rudiger, David Alaba, and Eduardo Camavinga was outstanding last week. That group limited Bernardo Silva, Erling Haaland, and Jack Grealish in a way that few City opponents have all season, with Rudiger’s work containing Haaland giving Real Madrid a real shot at yet another trip to the Champions League final.

It’s possible Guardiola could sit Grealish for Phil Foden or Bernardo Silva for Riyad Mahrez on Wednesday, especially given the Spaniard’s track record of tweaking his lineups in big Champions League matches.

Kevin De Bruyne scored his team’s only goal in Leg 1 on an outstanding shot from a distance, but the veteran RM midfield held up well against De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan, John Stones, and Rodri.

Even amid a season full of one-sided results in City’s favor, it’s hard to see them beating Real Madrid comfortably on Wednesday.

Injuries

Guardiola will have his first-choice starters at almost every position, with Nathan Ake the team’s only injury issue.

With the Premier League race all but wrapped up, Guardiola was able to rest Grealish, Stones, Silva, and De Bruyne during Sunday’s 3-0 win over Everton. None of those four started that match, but Grealish and Silva did come on as subs.

Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Odds, Props, Predictions: City Remain Favorites After Leg 1 Draw
Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema passes the ball during the Champions League semifinal first leg soccer match. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)

Real Madrid Roster, Injuries, and Betting News

Going into Leg 1, it was difficult to envision a Real Madrid side with some puzzling recent losses to mid-table La Liga clubs hanging with City. But last Tuesday showed, once again, that against the best teams in their schedule — particularly in the Champions League — Real Madrid are a different beast.

Vinicius’ early goal against the run of play, which followed a nice run by Camavinga, came out of nowhere on a night when scoring opportunities were hard to come by for either team.

Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, and Federico Valverde failed to prevent City from controlling possession early in Leg 1, but settled in by halftime and helped their side finish with 45% of possession.

City finished Leg 1 with 6 shots on target, compared to 4 for Real Madrid. Real Madrid had higher quality opportunities, though, at least according to xG (Los Blancos had .7 xG compared to .5 for City).

One of the most interesting questions in Leg 2 is whether both teams will be content to approach the match cautiously, or whether City will aggressively pursue an early goal. Given their Champions League experience, Real Madrid will probably be happy to wait as long as they need to for a good opportunity for Vinicius or Benzema. The home side, on the other hand, will likely try to create as much early pressure as possible on the RM back line.

The other major question is how Guardiola will adjust his tactics to free up Haaland, who had just 18 touches as Rudiger and Real Madrid effectively marked him. In Leg 1, Real Madrid appeared comfortable in a low block while City controlled possession early, and their shape made it impossible for Haaland to make the runs that have allowed him to score 58 goals in all competitions this season.

Injuries

Injuries are not going to be an issue for Real Madrid, who can start the same XI they did last week. The tricky decision for Ancelotti is what to do at Rudiger’s position. The German played well in place of first-choice starter Eder Militao last week as Militao missed the match due to suspension.

Rudiger presumably played too well for Ancelotti to bench him, but it’s certainly possible that RM could make that switch.

One way for Ancelotti to play Carvajal, Rudiger, Militao, and Alaba would be to move Alaba from center back to left back, Camavinga from left back to the midfield, and Valverde from the midfield to the right wing. That would make Rodrygo the odd one out.

It seems drastic to consider making three changes to the starting lineup, especially after the personnel and game plan in place last week worked so well, but the versatility of Alaba, Camavinga, and Valverde does make that an option.

Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Props

Below is a sampling of props for Manchester City vs. Real Madrid.

Anytime Goalscorer (FanDuel):

  • Erling Haaland: -135
  • Julian Alvarez: +145
  • Riyad Mahrez: +170
  • Karim Benzema: +200
  • Kevin De Bruyne: +240
  • Rodrygo: +310
  • Vinicius: +320

Correct Score (FanDuel):

  • Manchester City 1-0: +750
  • Manchester City 2-0: +800
  • Manchester City 2-1: +650
  • Real Madrid 1-0: +2000
  • Real Madrid 2-0: +3200
  • Real Madrid 2-1: +1600
  • 0-0: +1600
  • 1-1: +750

Total Goal Props (DraftKings):

  • Over 0.5 goals -5000, Under 0.5 goals: +1300
  • Over 1.5 goals -525, Under 1.5 goals: +370
  • Over 2.5 goals -170, Under 2.5 goals: +135
  • Over 3.5 goals +145, Under 3.5 goals: -180

Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Broadcast Info: Where to Watch

  • Date/Time: Wednesday, May 17, 3:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Etihad Stadium

Watch this match at one of the following:

  • CBS
  • Paramount+
  • Univision
  • TUDN
  • Fubo
  • DirecTV Stream

Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Prediction: Manchester City 1, Real Madrid 2

When picking this game, you’re either betting against the recent history of Real Madrid (and for a team with lousy luck in this tournament), or you’re betting against one of the deepest, most talented teams in recent memory in City.

Last week, I leaned toward City’s talent. After watching them fail to create any separation in Leg 1, though, I’ve changed my mind. Real Madrid won’t have a lead until the final minutes, or possibly not even until extra time, but I think they’ll find a way to stay in it until the closing minutes.

At that point, the side that has prevailed in one UCL nailbiter after the other over the years (Real Madrid) will find another memorable goal to leave City heartbroken yet again.

To put it another way, if you give me two teams as evenly matched as these sides were last week, and tell me a bet on one of them will pay out like a bet on Real Madrid will in this match, even a coin toss becomes an easy decision.

Here are a few bets available at DraftKings that are worth checking out:

  • Real Madrid to Advance (+260)
  • Double Chance: Tie or Real Madrid (+140)
  • Both Teams To Score – Yes (-150)

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About the Author
Tyler Everett

Tyler Everett

Writer
Tyler Everett has been a sports writer since joining the student newspaper at his alma mater, NC State, back in 2008. He's covered sports and sports business for a number of newspapers and websites, including the Denver Broncos, Charlotte Observer, High Press Soccer, and Sports Business Journal, where he currently works full-time.

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