The Masters Tournament, the PGA Tour’s first major of the year, begins Thursday at Augusta National. A highlight on every sports bettor’s calendar, sportsbooks across North America are rolling out a variety of options for punters hoping for a big score this weekend.
When betting golf, it can be extremely tempting to take a flyer on a few longshots. The trouble? All the big name hunters lurking at the top of the oddsboard. Getting a bet down on Kevin Kisner at 125/1 looks great until you realize he’s currently the 54th(!) favourite available at sportsbooks.
It’s the dream of every golf bettor to cash a massive longshot on a tournament outright. However, seasoned sharps know there’s a lot more money to be made in the prop market.
But you have to know where to look.
Missing The Cut Props
One of my favourite strategies when betting the majors is to look for popular golfers who haven’t been playing well and making bets on them to miss the cut.
Golf is hard. Full stop. And anyone can have a bad week.
Sportsbooks will be taking an unequal amount of action on the best players in the world to win the tournament. We can use this to our advantage and fade the public by targeting a few “Miss the Cut” props that have odds slightly skewed in our favour.
Two guys to target:
Bryson DeChambeau MC +175
Bryson continues to nurse a sore wrist and has been spraying tee shots all over the place lately. Finding fairways at Augusta is paramount, and he can’t seem to keep the ball in play lately. In his past four trips at Augusta, he’s finished T38-T29-T34-T46, so there’s clearly something about his game that doesn’t translate well here.
Jon Rahm MC +600 (BetMGM)
Stop writing your angry letter to Gaming Today. I hereby acknowledge that Jon Rahm is a deserving favourite to win the Masters at Augusta National and he has a very good shot of doing it.
However, odds of +600 to miss the cut are too high, plain and simple. Rahm has been struggling lately, particularly with his putter. He will not be able to contend if he can’t get putts to drop on these extremely slippery greens. And if his ball striking is off by a fraction of a degree? He’s going to be in trouble. Be sure to tag me @jimbetsports when he wins his second major this week so I can eat my hat.
Tiger Woods To Make The Cut (+110)
I had to check this number at Caesars Sportsbook twice to make sure I was reading it correctly. In his prime, Tiger Woods was -150 to win the Masters. And now he’s +110 just to make the cut. Times have changed.
There is nothing I would love more than to see Tiger Woods win the Masters on Sunday. He is a fierce competitor and knows Augusta National better than anyone. I don’t see any value to bet him outright (as his odds have crashed to as low as +3300) but he’s never missed the cut at Augusta National. His strategy at major championships over the years has been to play conservative golf the first two rounds and to go flag hunting over the weekend. Watch for him to keep the ball in play on Thursday and coast into the weekend within striking distance of the leaders. I love this number.
It’s Tiger Woods. Make the bet.
Will There Be A Hole-In-One?
In the 85-year history of The Masters, there have been 33 hole-in-ones, with several of those aces happening during the same year. That means there have been roughly 55 instances out of 85 Masters Tournaments where no one registered a hole in one. And we’re getting plus money?
Thank you. Next.
Will There Be An Albatross?
YES +1400 (DraftKings)
Consider this bet an insurance policy.
There have only been a handful of albatrosses at Augusta National, the most recent one being Louis Oosthuizen’s shot on the second hole back in 2012. I’ll be watching every minute of the Masters coverage and will never forgive myself if I witness the greatest feat in golf and not have any action on it. Historically, this is a losing proposition at +1400, but the line is just juicy enough for me to waste a few bucks and hope for some fireworks.
Will Anyone Break The Course Record Of 63?
Light rains have been forecast this week so Thursday and Friday’s rounds might see the course playing a little softer and slower than usual. There’s a ton of firepower near the top of the oddsboard this week, so don’t be surprised to see one of the big game hunters make a run at the record. Four reachable par 5s and slower than usual greens? A 62 is definitely in play this week.
Be sure to shop for the best line as I’ve seen this prop as low as +1000. I wouldn’t play it lower than +1500.
Bernhard Langer Top-40 Finish +700
The ageless wonder Bernhard Langer will be playing his 39th Masters Tournament this week. The two-time champion knows the course as well as anyone and always brings his best to Augusta. At 64 years of age, Langer continues to impress on the Champions Tour and is hitting the ball as straight as ever. He’ll be a popular bet as Top Senior at +200, but consider adding a bet on him to finish within the Top 40 at +700.
Langer has a pair of wins on the Champions Tour over the last six months. No need to waste your money on an outright wager, but Langer has cashed this Top 40 bet in 5 out of his last 10 trips to Augusta National. Odds of +700 are too good to pass up.
Those are my best bets this week. What are yours?