Mets vs. Yankees Predictions, Odds, Props: Expect Runs in Subway Series

The final Subway Series of the season is here, as the New York Mets head to the Bronx to take on the New York Yankees. Both teams enter Tuesday night’s contest in the middle of disappointing seasons, but this should still be a great matchup.

These cross-city rivals split a two-game series at Citi Field in June and now look to settle the season series at Yankee Stadium, starting tonight at 7:05 p.m. ET on TBS.

If you need help making a betting pick in this game, we have you covered, as we break down the action with a Mets vs. Yankees predictions, odds, and props preview.

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Mets vs. Yankees Betting Odds: Run Line, Moneyline, Total

Before making your Mets vs. Yankees pick, check out the odds and lines from the top US sports betting apps. This will ensure you get the best numbers for your wager, and with each sportsbook having its own bonus offers, you can rake in the bonus bets for tonight’s action.

Here are the Mets vs. Yankees odds from some of our favorite mobile sportsbooks.

Mets vs. Yankees Betting Trends

Here are some trends to consider for tonight’s Subway Series encounter.

Mets Betting Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in four of the Mets’ last five games.
• The Mets are 1-4 SU in their last five road games.
• The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Mets’ last 14 games when playing at Yankee Stadium.
• The Mets are 2-6 SU in their last eight games against the AL East.

Yankees Betting Trends

• The Yankees are 2-5 SU in their last seven games against the NL.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the Yankees’ last five games against the Mets.
• The total has gone OVER in four of the Yankees’ last five home games.
• The Yankees are 5-2 SU in their last seven games against the NL East.

MLB odds: Runlines, moneylines, totals 

Mets’ Surprising Season

It has been a shocking season for the New York Mets, coming off a 100-win 2022 campaign. There was some obvious regression coming from some of their bats, but they are just not a good team right now. Any chance of catching the Braves in the NL East is gone, as they are 18.5 games back, and the Mets are seven games back of a wild-card spot.

The playoffs are not even a thought in Queens right now. The rest of the season will be dedicated to seeing what and who they need for 2024. Rumors are already swirling that they could be sellers at the trade deadline next week, and tonight’s starter, Justin Verlander, is among the player the Mets are likely shopping.

Although Verlander has been quietly improving all season, he still has not been very good on the road, as he has a 5.18 ERA, and his strikeout rate drops almost 7% away from home. But the Mets offense has done a nice job on the road, as they rank ninth in runs (255) and 12th in HRs (63), and they have a 100 wRC+ when away from Citi Field.

Judge’s Absence Looms Large

The New York Yankees have been without Aaron Judge since June 3, and in that time, the Yankees are 18-22 and have fallen into last place in the AL East. While they still have a winning record and are only 2.5 games back of a playoff spot, and Judge is slowly working his way back into action, this team is just not a threat to win the World Series

Since Judge’s injury, the Yankees’ offense has practically been lifeless. However, in the second half, they have been even worse. In nine games since the All-Star break ended, the Yankees are ranked 24th in runs (40), 21st in HRs (12), and 17th in fWAR (0.9).

Luckily, they are getting some production offensively, as Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu have been swinging hot bats. However, the pitching has been an absolute disaster in the second half as they ranked 29th in fWAR (-0.7) and allowed 29 runs across six games against the Rockies and Royals.

Tonight’s starter, Domingo German, did throw a perfect game earlier this season but has not been all that great in 2023. He enters this start with a 4.52 ERA, and his stats at Yankee Stadium are troubling.

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Mets vs. Yankees Prop Bets

Francisco Alvarez 2+ Total Bases (+140, FanDuel)

The former top prospect in baseball is having an excellent rookie season for the Mets. Although he likely will not catch Corbin Carroll in NL Rookie of the Year odds, he still has registered a 2.1 fWAR and is swinging a ridiculously-hot bat this month.

In July, Alvarez is slashing .315/.383/.704 with a 1.087 OPS and seven home runs in 15 games. While he has not hit this number in his last four games, Alvarez has recorded 2+ total bases eight times this month.

He has been much better on the road this season, with a slash of .256/.303/.609 with a .912 OPS and 14 home runs in 39 games. Alvarez also has 16 home runs and 22 extra-base hits against right-handed pitching this season, and he is going up against a pitcher in German that has given up a ton of hard contact.

It also helps that the Yankees’ bullpen has been awful in the second half of the season. They rank last in fWAR (-1.0), HRs (9), and Barrel%.

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Mets vs. Yankees Prediction

The Yankees offense has been practically worthless without Judge, as Torres and LeMahieu are the only players that have played daily and shown any life. However, both those guys have been really good, and while Verlander has improved through the season, he and the Mets bullpen are still very shaky. 

The same can be said for German and the Yankees bullpen. The New York ‘pen has been the worst in baseball since the All-Star break, and German has not improved, except for one perfect night in Oakland. 

Offensively, the Mets have been decent all season, but they have been swinging hot bats in the second half. While the Yankees’ struggles scoring runs without Judge is concerning, it will be a warm night in the Bronx, with the wind blowing out hard. 

For this matchup, we can expect a lot of scoring off two inconsistent pitching staffs and for this game to easily go over the total. 

Mets vs. Yankees Pick: Over 8.5 (-102) via FanDuel Sportsbook

How To Watch Mets vs. Yankees

Date: Tuesday, July 25, 2023

First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Location: Yankee Stadium— Bronx, NY

Where to Watch: TBS