For the second time in two days following USA-Iran on Tuesday, a CONCACAF side that has struggled to score needs a win in their final match of group play to advance at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. On Wednesday, Mexico meets Saudi Arabia with a slim chance of advancing.
El Tri is currently +275 to advance from Group C on DraftKings, as they have just one point through two games. Mexico not only needs to win but have Poland beat Argentina to go through. Saudi Arabia would advance with a win, while a draw would keep them alive, depending on the Poland-Argentina result.
Mexico can also potentially reach the round of 16 if they win and Argentina wins. In that case, Argentina would win the group with six points, while Mexico and Poland would be tied with four points apiece. To win the tiebreaker with Poland, Mexico would need Wednesday’s results to close Poland’s sizable advantage in goal differential — Poland is currently +2 in that category, while Mexico is -2.
In Gaming Today’s breakdown of Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia odds, props, and predictions, we examine the Round 3 matchup.
Best Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia Odds: Moneyline, Total for World Cup Clash
Here are the betting lines from the top US sportsbooks for Mexico-Saudi Arabia. The odds are likely to change between now and kickoff, and it’s always advised to weigh the options at various sports betting apps to find the best bonuses and prices.
These odds reflect the prices for both sides on the three-way line, where a bet on either team is a loss in the event of a draw. DraftKings prices the draw at +310, while FanDuel offers it at +320 and BetRivers lists it at +300.
SOCCER · Wed (11/30) @ 2:00 pm ET
|Lusail Stadium, Lusail, QA|
Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia odds lists Mexico as the clear favorite, while Saudi Arabia is a massive underdog. On paper, Mexico boasts the superior roster. But with no goals through two games in Qatar and against a Saudi Arabia side that already beat Argentina, betting against Mexico in this match makes a lot of sense.
The total in this match is 2.5 goals, with the Over priced at -120 on DraftKings and the Under at -105. Mexico’s inability to score so far makes the Under a solid bet. Elimination games typically mean more open play, though. With that in mind, bettors should probably lean toward the Over.
Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia: World Cup History
El Tri has participated in every World Cup since 1994, advancing from group play in each of those years. While Mexico has navigated group play as well as any team in recent history, they have not managed to win a game in the knockout rounds since 1986 when they reached the quarterfinals.
Saudi Arabia made four consecutive World Cups from 1994 through 2006 but failed to qualify in 2010 and 2014. They returned in 2018 when they were eliminated in group play. Saudi Arabia’s best World Cup showing was in 1994 when they advanced to the round of 16.
Mexico and Saudi Arabia have never met in a World Cup.
Mexico Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
Mexico entered the World Cup with Manager Tata Martino on the hot seat after his team lost to the USMNT in the finals of the CONCACAF Nations League and Gold Cup last summer. In CONCACAF qualifying, Mexico played well against everyone but Canada and USA, drawing both those teams once and losing to them once.
Mexico enters this match without a goal in group play despite creating four shots on goal against Poland and holding possession for 61% of the match. Against Argentina, Mexico mustered only one shot on target on just four total attempts.
The Mexican squad is anchored by veteran keeper Guillermo Ochoa. The roster’s other stars include forwards Hirving Lozano of Napoli and Raul Jimenez of EPL side Wolverhampton Wanderers. Martino started Alexis Vega, Henry Martin, and Hirving Lozano up top against Poland.
Mexico went with just Lozano and Vega up top against Argentina, as they lined up with an extra player on the back line to try and contain Lionel Messi and Co.
Jimenez, who played just 212 minutes for Wolves this fall due to injuries, came on as a sub in the 71st minute against Poland and entered the Argentina match in the 66th.
In the midfield, Mexico features a couple of veterans of top European sides. In addition to Hector Herrera (now with the Houston Dynamo after his stint with Atletico Madrid), El Tri also relies on Andres Guardado (Real Betis), Edson Alvarez (Ajax), and Luis Chavez (Liga MX side Pachuca).
Jimenez being fit enough to start and play 90 minutes would give El Tri a big boost. Guardado left the Argentina match before halftime and his availability for Wednesday is up in the air.
Saudi Arabia Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
The Saudis shocked the world by beating Argentina in their World Cup opener, quickly making Manager Herve Renard one of the darlings of the tournament. The Saudis scored two highlight-reel goals against Argentina — Saleh Al-Shehri got the equalizer, and Salem Al-Dawsari delivered the jaw-dropping game-winner — to win that match after falling behind 1-0 in the first half.
Against Poland, Saudi Arabia once again conceded a first-half goal, and Robert Lewandowski put the Saudis away with a goal in the 82nd minute.
Saudi Arabia lacks household names on the pitch, but Renard is one of the most recognizable managers in international soccer. While no Saudi players play major minutes for recognizable European club powers, goals like Al-Dawsari’s prove these players’ talent — even if they’re unheralded outside their home country.
Saudi Arabia will be missing Abdulelah Al-Malki after he picked up two yellow cards earlier in group play. Another question mark for Renard’s side is the health of Nawaf Al-Abed, who injured his ankle against Poland.
Also read: Updated 2022 World Cup odds
Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia Props
Below is a sampling of props on Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia.
Anytime Goalscorer (FanDuel):
- Uriel Untuna: +370
- Raul Jimenez: +410
- Hirving Lozano: +420
- Alexis Vega: +460
- Feras Al Brikan: +1000
Correct Score (DraftKings):
- Mexico 1-0: +700
- Mexico 2-0: +750
- Mexico 2-1: +800
- Saudi Arabia 1-0: +1300
- Saudi Arabia 2-0: +2500
- Saudi Arabia 2-1: +1400
- 0-0: +1500
- 1-1: +650
Total Goal Props (DraftKings):
- Over 0.5 goals -4000, Under 0.5 goals: +1200
- Over 1.5 goals -425, Under 1.5 goals: +300
- Over 2.5 goals -120, Under 2.5 goals: -105
- Over 3.5 goals +215, Under 3.5 goals: -275
Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia Broadcast Info: Where to Watch
- Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2 p.m. ET
- Lusail Stadium
- Fox Sports App
Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia Prediction: Saudi Arabia 2, Mexico 1
Mexico simply has not inspired much confidence through two matches in Qatar. Losing to pre-World Cup favorite Argentina was understandable, especially given that side’s desperation after their own shocking loss to Saudi Arabia.
But while it was valuable to salvage a point from the 0-0 draw against Poland to start the tournament, Mexico was extremely fortunate that Ochoa was able to deny a Lewandowski penalty to keep that match scoreless.
The bad vibes around Mexico date back to those two losses to the USMNT in the CONCACAF tournament finals last summer and El Tri also looked like the weaker side for most of the four matches against Canada and the USA in qualifiers.
It all adds up to a likely draw or worse for Mexico against a Saudi Arabia side with nothing to lose, though I do expect El Tri to find its first goal of the tournament.
Here are two game parlays on DraftKings worth checking out:
- Saudi Arabia Double Chance – Win or Draw: +120
- Both Teams To Score – Yes: -125