The Joes have been getting the better of the Pros on the NFL betting board and that recent trend continued this past Sunday. The main reason for the success of recreational bettors in the NFL of late has been the dominating performances of favorites.
The chalk has owned it of late with favorites going 28-6 SU over the last three Sundays of the NFL season along with a strong 20-12-2 ATS mark during that span. Last week in this column, I talked about teams that may be fading in terms of effort and intensity on a weekly basis while mired in a disappointing season. One I mentioned was the New York Giants, who more than lived up to that billing on Sunday in a feeble and horrific effort against the previously winless San Francisco 49ers as the G-Men went down 31-21, both SU and ATS.
The Giants surprisingly took most of the money as they were bet up to -3 by kickoff and all of it went to the books in a game where the Giants allowed 474 total yards to C.J. Beathard and the 49ers offense. The Giants showed a distinct lack of effort on a bunch of plays in Sunday’s loss and appeared to look like a team that is starting to tune out their head coach Ben McAdoo.
The Giants are a hard team to back even with the pointspread value increasing on this team simply because this squad appears to be throwing in the towel on its season more than any other in the NFL right now. The Houston Texans are also on the fast track to implosion at this point in time as they suffered their second straight loss SU and ATS in a row since the season ending injury to their No. 1 QB Deshaun Watson occurred during a practice prior to last week’s game against Indianapolis.
Houston was outscored 51-21 in the last two weeks against the Colts and Rams. QB Tom Savage has been terrible in the passing game completing just 37-of-80 passes in his first two starts since taking over for a paltry 46% completion rate and the Texans once strong and stingy defense is anything but allowing 94 points in the last three games combined with the injuries to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus (both on IR) really hurting this team.
Since those two players went down, the Texans have lacked any sort of pass rush and their secondary has been torched repeatedly surrendering over 600 yards through the air to Jacoby Brissett and Jared Goff over their last two games. Houston is now at 3-6 and are a full three games behind AFC South co-leaders Jacksonville and Tennessee and you have to start to wonder with no sign of progress being shown by Tom Savage at the QB position and a defense that is crumbling if the effort and intensity continues to decline on this squad in the weeks to come. At least in terms of this bettor, I am penciling in Houston firmly in the ‘bet against’ category until further notice.
College Scene
We saw things get shaken up quite a bit among the College Football Playoff Top 4 ranked teams. Notre Dame entered last week as No. 3 in the CFP rankings but were thoroughly and soundly whipped 41-8 as a small FG road favorite at the hands of the now 9-0 Miami Hurricanes on Saturday night. Notre Dame was doomed by a -4 TO margin in the loss. The Irish had their ground game silenced but also couldn’t stop Miami on the ground with Travis Homer rushing for 146 yards.
Miami has certainly lived up to the billing of being one of the best teams in the country with B2B quality wins over Virginia Tech and Notre Dame and they finish with games against Virginia and Pitt prior to facing Clemson for the ACC Championship. I have to wonder though if we see Miami’s ‘A’ game next week against Virginia following these two mammoth wins and with the pressure of finishing the season undefeated ratcheting up. Georgia is the other team that was taken down a good notch or two this past weekend as their defense finally looked human struggling to shut down QB Jarrett Stidham and the impressive Auburn Tigers uptempo offense which handed the Bulldogs their first loss of the season in a convincing 40-17 victory as slim home underdogs.
Auburn outgained Georgia 488-230 so this was not at all a fluky result. Auburn was full marks for the dominating performance on both sides of the football. Auburn has UL Monroe next week prior to the showdown against Alabama in the Iron Bowl which could decide not only the SEC West but possibly a spot in the playoff too. Georgia has games on tap against Kentucky and Georgia Tech to wrap up the regular season.
The Wildcats are an improved team at 7-3 on the season and Georgia Tech is always a tricky rivalry game.
Georgia went into a bit of a tailspin last season under head coach Kirby Smart after suffering their first loss of the season at Ole Miss as they went 1-3 SU in the following 4 games. That’s why after last week’s loss, I’m not ready to trust Georgia to bounce back from a wagering standpoint against Kentucky.