Miami vs. Texas Predictions, Odds, Props: Why we are Backing the Underdog in This Elite Eight Matchup

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We are down to just a handful of teams as the final game of the Elite Eight round of March Madness features the No. 5 seed Miami Hurricanes and the highest remaining seed in the tournament, the No. 2 Texas Longhorns. These teams are playing for a Final Four spot, so we should be in for some competitive basketball. If you need help picking a side, we have you covered, as we break down Miami vs. Texas predictions, odds, and props.

Miami just whooped up on Houston in the Sweet 16, and although the Hurricanes struggled coming into the tournament and looked vulnerable against both Drake and Indiana, they ended up separating from both of those teams, and they punched Houston in the mouth from the first tip. Meanwhile, Texas survived a scare against Penn State in the Round of 32, and they responded with a start-to-finish butt-kicking of Xavier to make it to the Elite Eight for the first time in 15 years.

The final game of the Elite Eight may signal that March Madness 2023 is coming to a close, but this is when the competition gets fierce, and we should be in store for a great end to an enjoyable tournament. We have you covered if you want to make a betting pick for Miami vs. Texas.

Miami vs. Texas March Madness Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

When you go to make your Miami vs. Texas betting pick, it is critical that you scan the odds and lines from several of the top sports betting apps, so you can get the best number for your wager. This will also open you up to all the March Madness bonus offers available.

Here are Miami vs. Texas odds from some of our favorite mobile sportsbooks.

Miami (FL) vs Texas Odds NCAAB Odds

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MIA Miami (FL) at UT Texas
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Miami vs. Texas Betting Trends

Miami

  • Miami is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 games
  • Miami is 1-4 SU in its last five games against the Big 12
  • Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when playing as the underdog
  • Miami is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games

Texas

  • Texas is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of Texas’ last eight games
  • Texas is 8-0 SU in its last eight games when playing as the favorite
  • The total has gone OVER in six of Texas’ last seven games against the ACC.

Read more: March Madness odds.

Miami Hurricanes Betting Overview (28-7, 20-14-1 ATS)

Even though Miami has one of the most high-powered offenses in the country, it was shocking to see what they did to Houston in the Sweet 16. The Cougars are the top-ranked team in opponents’ shooting percentage, and they allowed the Hurricanes to shoot 52% from the field and a blistering 44% from beyond the arc.

What might be even more shocking is just how well Miami’s defense fared against one of the best offenses in the country. The Hurricanes held Houston to just 37.5% shooting from the field and 29% from deep. Simply put, Miami blew this team out in the way we knew they could, with an explosive offense, and they also did it on the defensive side of the court.

Miami’s defense is not horrible, but they rank 104th in KenPom‘s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rating, and they are giving up 71.7 points per game, which is 211th in the country. Although Houston had nothing for this Miami team, the Hurricanes defense will be a real problem in this matchup, as they’re going up against a Texas team that is effective on the offensive side of the court.

Speaking of offense, Maimi is ranked sixth in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rating, and they are ranked inside the top 20 in scoring (79.4), assist per game (14.7), free throw percentage (77.6%), shooting percentage (48.2%), and shooting efficiency (1.156). They don’t hit the deep ball often, but with players like Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller, Nijel Pack, Bensley Joseph, and Wooga Poplar all shooting over 35% from three, this team is a threat to knock down three-pointers, as we saw against Houston.

Texas Longhorns Betting Overview (29-8, 19-17-1 ATS)

Texas is the highest-remaining seed left in March. They fall in that magical space of being ranked in the top 20 in KenPom’s Adjusted Offense and Defensive Efficiency Ratings, making them one of only two teams left in March with that distinction; the other is UConn.

The Longhorns are a well-balanced team, but the defense might be what separates them from the rest of the remaining teams. They are giving up only 67.3 points per game, and they can defend all three levels at a high level, which will be critical in this matchup as Miami cannot seem to miss a shot this March. They allow teams to shoot 32.4% from deep, but the Hurricanes are not a three-point-reliant team, no matter what the box scores tell you from this tournament.

If Miami continues taking threes at a high clip, Texas can and will be able to defend from deep as they are long, athletic, and one of the best defensive teams in the nation this season.

Offensively, Texas shoots 47% from the field, 53.9% from the two-point territory, and they rank inside the top 55 in both effective field goal percentage (53.2%) and shooting efficiency (1.124).

Miami vs. Texas Prediction Against the Spread

While Texas is the better team in this matchup, they have struggled against up-temp offenses. Miami does not play lightning fast, but this team can run, and if they throw the Longhorns off rhythm early and continue to shoot the lights out, Miami will be starting right down the barrel of its first Final Four appearance in school history.

The Longhorns are going to fight, and they very well may win this game, but they have a tall ask against a red-hot Miami team, and we have seen them struggle against teams with a similar style of play (Kansas State, Kansas, Baylor, Etc.).

This very well could be the most exciting game of the Elite Eight, and with how hot they’re playing, we will roll with Miami to cover the spread.

Pick: Miami +4

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Miami vs. Texas Prop Bet

Isaiah Wong To Make 2+ Threes (+100, FanDuel)

Wong is the leading scorer for Miami, and over the last two games, he has been the driving force of Miami’s offense success, averaging 23.5 points and seven rebounds per game on a blistering 62.5% shooting from deep. He is also taking 4.0 threes per game, which, if he continues shooting like he has all tournament, will be more than enough for us to hit this prop. 

Texas is an excellent defensive team, but if there is one clear area of struggle: defending the three-point line. They are allowing just under 20 three-point attempts per game, and they are ranked 88th in three-point shooting percentage. 

Miami has made it to its second-straight elite eight with tremendous offensive play, and if they want to finally break through to the Final Four, that will have to continue Sunday, and it starts with Wong. Make sure you jump on this prop at FanDuel Sportsbook while it is still set at EVEN odds. This means that if you wager $100 and this prop hits, you will win $100.  

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How To Watch Miami vs. Texas

Date: Sunday, March 26, 2023

Tipoff: 5:05 p.m. ET 

Location: T-Mobile Center — Kansas City, MO

Where to Watch: CBS

About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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