The most efficient scoring machine in college football is neither Georgia nor Ohio State, but the Michigan Wolverines with a national-best 0.361 points-per-play margin.
In the Boilermakers, we have a squad that’s in the top 25 of that category over their past three games. And indoors in Indianapolis, weather concerns are nil, not that a little wind or precipitation would slow these Wolverines.
Here’s a look at Michigan vs. Purdue odds and a pick in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Michigan vs. Purdue Betting Lines: Point Spread, Total, Moneyline
Here are live odds from around the betting market for Michigan vs. Purdue at Lucas Oil Stadium.
NCAAF · Sat (12/3) @ 8:00pm ET
| PUR Purdue | at | MICH Michigan |
| Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan | ||
No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (12-0, 7-5 Against the Spread)
In this Big Ten title game a year ago, Michigan trounced Iowa, 42-3, soon after having belted Ohio State in Ann Arbor. Then came a bit of a layoff before losing to Georgia, 34-11, in the Orange Bowl or national semifinal.
That’s a lot of learning on how this whole deal works for Michigan boss Jim Harbaugh, who last weekend directed his charges to one of the rousing triumphs in his program’s history, 45-23, over the Buckeyes in Columbus.
On both sides of the ball, Michigan just got stronger as that game progressed. The Wolverines capped it with a 21-3 edge in the fourth quarter. Again, in Columbus.
That is what must occupy the attention of a squad like Georgia, but let’s not get too ahead of ourselves.
Sophomore dynamo Blake Corum couldn’t go at tailback against the Bucks? No worries as 6-foot-2, 200-pound sophomore Donovan Edwards rattled off the game of his life so far, galloping 22 times for 216 yards, including those late TD runs of 75 and 85 yards.
Edwards will enjoy reading the next few words, as Purdue’s rush defense has been breaking down lately. On the season, it’s among the top 40, yielding 136 ground yards per game. Over their past three, however, the Boilers have allowed 160 a game.
Last week at Indiana, they let the Hoosiers romp for 215 yards.
Michigan’s offense has hit the 50s in scoring five times, has been in the 40s twice, and the 30s on three occasions. It has averaged 36.7 points over its past six games.
It breaks 40 here with assorted strikes by Edwards, quarterback JJ McCarthy, and the country’s best kicker in Jake Moody.
Bet Big Ten Championship Game at BetMGM: Use promo code TODAY for up to $1,000 risk-free bet
Purdue Boilermakers (8-4, 5-7 ATS)
Senior quarterback Aidan O’Connell chose to play last weekend in the aftermath of his brother Sean’s death and he went 18-for-29 for 290 yards and two touchdowns in the Boilers’ 30-16 victory in Indiana.
It gave Purdue the Big Ten West Division crown, advancing it to this one.
“For him to come out and play the way he did was just amazing,” receiver Charlie Jones wrote on Twitter. During that game, O’Connell could be seen conferring with team chaplain Marty Dittmar.
Devin Mockobee, a 6-foot, 195-pound sophomore who has emerged out of a gaggle of tailbacks, has run for 849 yards and eight TDs.
Jones, a 6-foot senior transfer from Iowa, is the aerial star, having caught 97 passes for 1,199 yards and 12 TDs. Payne Durham, a 6-5, 255-pound junior tight end, has averaged 10.2 yards on 55 receptions and he’s scored eight times.
The Boilers are not only pass-first, but they’re also one of the nation’s top-six teams at throwing the ball, putting it in the air 42 times a game. Their 279 average passing yards rank 21st, but their yards per pass (6.6) is only 94th.
That steady efficiency decline is a concern as is Purdue’s giveaway rate of 1.5 per game (bottom third of the nation). Worse, nobody has a worse penalty-yards-per-penalty figure than its 10.8 yards.
It can be its own worst enemy.
By contrast, Michigan yields 5.6 yards per pass, 3 yards per rush, and gives the ball away only 0.5 times per game — all of which are No. 2 in the country.
Michigan vs. Purdue Sports Betting Recommendation & Pick
Michigan is in an élite class that might include only Georgia, so the Boilers are in for a stern test.
Purdue has averaged 26 points over their past three games, so they’re familiar with the end zone. But this Wolverines’ defense is magnificent. Our three models average 22 points for the Boilers, but we’ll take 20. Michigan gets 40. Over City.
Our Pick: Over 51 (-110)
Also read: Discover the best sportsbook app for you | How to bet on CFB
About the Author
