Minnesota Twins are a perfect 3-0 with the system

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We are nine weeks into the baseball season, and the data is flowing.

Analytics are starting to become much more consistent, and it’s a good time to start recognizing specific ones you may not think of, but lend themselves to winning trends either on sides or totals.

I’ll get to one I’ve uncovered in a moment, but first, let’s revisit one of the betting systems I spoke of during the exhibition season, that being starting pitchers making their MLB debut.

After Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller was hammered on Memorial Day, the system dropped to 9-6 on the year, with $100 bettors up $285. Eight of the pitchers who made their debuts were favorites, the biggest being Houston’s Corbin Martin on May 12, when he laid $2.10 to the Texas Rangers. Martin struck out and allowed two runs, three hits and one walk over 5 1/3 innings during a 15-5 shellacking of the Rangers.

The San Diego Padres lead the league with four pitchers making their starting debut this season and have seen their rookies split those games. The Seattle Mariners (2-0) and Rangers (0-2) have each debuted two pitchers.

Keep an eye on this system over the next month, and up to the trade deadline, for a flurry of debuts, and then again in August into September.

There was also the “Magical Fourth” system, which calls for bettors to play on teams riding a three-game win streak looking to win their fourth straight, provided it is on their home turf. Through Monday’s games, that system was 30-22 with $100 bettors breaking even give or take a few bucks depending on the line you’re getting with games at a near pick.

The offensively surging Minnesota Twins, who through Monday are on pace to belt 320 home runs, are a perfect 3-0 with the system, and the Los Angeles Dodgers are 3-1. There are 17 teams with at least one win involving the system, while the New York Yankees (0-2), Chicago White Sox (0-2), Philadelphia Phillies (0-2), San Francisco Giants (0-2) and Washington Nationals (0-1) have failed to capitalize on their own field while riding three-game streaks.

This is another system that ages well through the season, and one I highly advise you look for every day before you start your handicapping.

Now, about that quirky stat I’ve found, in relation to MLB totals.

Errors can be costly. They’ve doomed the Mariners, who have been dismal since their 13-2 start to the season. Seattle leads the league with 59 errors, followed in the distance by the White Sox (44), Cubs (41) and four others with 40.

It’s probably of no coincidence that four of the seven teams that have committed the most errors rank in the top nine of totals going over, while three of them had nine of the highest ERAs in the league.

Heading into Tuesday’s games, the Mariners had the most overs with 35 and the fourth-highest ERA (5.12), the Cubs ranked third with 30, the Yankees were sitting sixth with 29 and Washington was ninth in both categories, with 28 overs and a 4.89 ERA. The White Sox had the third-highest ERA at 5.15.

Conversely speaking, three of the top six teams with the fewest errors rank in the top four with the most unders.

The Tampa Bay Rays are tied for first, with the Kansas City Royals, for the least amount of errors (19) and had the league’s best ERA (2.97). They were followed by the Arizona Diamondbacks (20), Cincinnati Reds (23), Houston Astros (24) and Milwaukee Brewers (25).

The Brewers ranked second in the league with 22 unders, the Astros had the third-fewest unders (21) and second-best ERA (3.40) and the Reds were tied with Houston in unders (21) and ranked fourth with a 3.61 ERA.

It wouldn’t hurt to keep an eye on some of these teams, and when they happen to face one another, be it a pair of teams that commit a lot of errors, and tend to run their scores high, or two of the more disciplined teams meeting and the total staying low.

Now, for the good stuff; let’s feed off last week’s 2-1 showing with three more plays for this week.

Thursday

Giants at Marlins: Let’s head to South Beach for this National League matinee, while I insist on listing the scheduled starters: Sandy Alcantara over Drew Pomeranz.

The Marlins are just trying to spark any kind of flame that might help them ascend from the National League East cellar. Miami headed into this series riding a 7-3 streak in its last 10 and should be able to get to Pomeranz early.

San Francisco’s lefty is just 1-5 on the season with a 6.45 ERA. He just got rocked for five runs in 2 2/3 innings against Arizona last Friday and has struggled to pitch deep into games. Alcantara just had a rough outing of his own, also giving up five runs. He lasted five innings against Washington on Saturday. Pomeranz pitched more than five innings just one time in nine starts thus far.

The home team is the value play, and list both. MARLINS

Red Sox at Yankees: I’m not sure who is going to start for the Pinstripes in this one, but I do know Chris Sale has been penciled in for the Crimson Hose, and I’m siding against the struggling lefty. In fact, I’d suggest listing only Sale in this game. This is becoming the narrative with Boston’s supposed ace, but he didn’t have his best stuff the last time out, at Houston, where he allowed four runs over six innings.

I know the Yankees have been a bright spot on Sale’s résumé, with the southpaw sporting a stingy 1.93 ERA in 20 appearances to go along with a mediocre 7-5 mark. But the Yankees have surged to the top of the American League East and were tied for fourth on Tuesday with 285 runs scored this season.

The Red Sox haven’t necessarily impressed me of late, so I’m going to roll with New York’s lineup pounding Sale early in the Boogie Down and stealing the win. YANKEES

Friday

Cubs at Cardinals: I don’t know why the Cardinals opted to tweak their rotation so Miles Mikolas could face Chicago in this series lid-lifter, as the right-hander has struggled of late and could find himself getting the hook early if the Cubs’ bats come to life. He is 2-3 this month and has seen his ERA dip below 4.00 just one time all season.

Since dropping to 3.83 on May 11, Mikolas has been tagged for 10 earned runs in his last two starts, at Texas and vs. Atlanta, pushing the ERA back to 4.76.

The Cubs have one of the more potent lineups in baseball and went into Tuesday’s game tied for seventh with a .258 batting average. They’re arriving in St. Louis after a tough series in Houston and will be looking to exhale a bit against a team they swept earlier this season by a combined final of 23-10. Look for the baby bears to get the money. CUBS

Last week: 2-1

Season: 15-9

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About the Author

W.G. Ramirez

W.G. Ramirez is a 32-year veteran covering sports in Southern Nevada, and resident of 46 years. He is a freelance reporter in Las Vegas and the Southern Nevada correspondent for The Associated Press.

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