The 2022 MLB Draft is set to take place Sunday, July 17 through Tuesday, July 19, as part of this season’s All-Star festivities in Los Angeles. Sports bettors can find odds at DraftKings on which player the Orioles will take with the No. 1 pick, as well as on other draft-related outcomes.
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Let’s examine MLB Draft odds for the No. 1 selection and a couple of other betting markets.
MLB Draft Odds: Who’s Going First?
Odds are current at DraftKings as of Friday afternoon, July 15:
- Druw Jones -120
- Brooks Lee +125
- Termarr Johnson +275
- Jackson Holliday +700
- Jacob Berry +2500
- Elijah Green +3000
- Gavin Cross +10000
- Kevin Prada +10000
Who will the Orioles take? That’s a good question. Baltimore general manager Mike Elias is known for not giving the press any indication of where the team is leaning. The last time the Orioles had the No. 1 pick was in 2019. Like this year, there was no clear indication then leading up to the draft how they were leaning.
They ended up taking the player perceived as the best prospect in the class, Adley Rutschman. But this year, Elias has given us something; he’s said the team does not expect to go with a pitcher at No. 1 and will likely take a high school player.
However, a shift in the betting market throughout the week suggests they could go another route.
Of the top five prospects in the country (according to MLB.com’s rankings), Brooks Lee is the only college player. The Athletic’s latest mock draft (as of July 11) has him going No. 1. His odds early in the day on Monday were closer to +900; they improved to +300 early in the afternoon. But as of Friday, they have gone down even further, to +125.
That means he has a 44.44% chance to go No. 1.
A recent MLB.com article makes Lee look like a strong possibility. Since the Orioles aren’t talking, the writer talked to other team executives and personnel. Of the 27 that responded, nine of them seem to think the Orioles will go with Lee. Why? Because there is a better chance Lee advances through the minors faster and becomes big league ready sooner.
However, while Lee received nine votes, Druw Jones received eight. Jones is considered the best player in the class and his odds still give him a better than 50% chance of going No. 1. Since the Orioles have the largest bonus pool ($17 million) to work with, they can afford to go after someone that will command top dollar.
Jackson Holliday, whose odds have taken a big dip since Monday, received three votes and Termarr Johnson received three. Baltimore has selected an outfielder with a top-five pick the last three years. A five-tool shortstop like Holliday would be a solid pick, and Johnson has been called the best high school hitter in years.
MLB Draft Props
Justin Crawford Draft Position: Under 13.5 +190
He’s not much of a power hitter, but the son of former MLB great Carl Crawford is a solid contact hitter, athletic, and one of the better defenders in the draft. MLB.com ranks him as the No. 13 prospect, but some mocks have him going as high as No. 9.
Kevin Parada Draft Position: Under 4.5 +170
Parada is rated as the No. 6 prospect in the draft, which means someone will need to be in the market for a catcher that can hit for him to go in the top four. Either Lee or Jones will go No. 1; whoever doesn’t will go No. 2. Jackson Holliday will probably go No. 3– which leaves the Pirates (who could really use a catcher like Parada) picking at No. 4.
Betting Analysis: Predictions and Sleeper Picks
Since Elias does not give us much help, it is challenging to predict what the Orioles will do with the No. 1 pick. Jones is still a heavy favorite, but it is hard to ignore all the attention Lee is getting. At this point, either appear to be a decent bet, but if you’d rather roll the dice on a sleeper pick with long odds– think about Elijah Green.
His odds only give him a 3.23% chance of going No. 1. But he is the No. 3 rated prospect in the draft. Yes, many mocks have had him slipping later in the top 10. But if the Orioles are going to shock us with who they take, he’d be a good selection.
Where to Bet on The MLB Draft
Bettors can place wagers on the MLB Draft in the following states, either online, at retail sportsbooks, or both:
Michigan West Virginia Arkansas
Virginia New Hampshire Delaware
Tennessee Rhode Island Mississippi
Colorado Oregon New Mexico
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MLB Draft History
The following table contains information on the No. 1 pick in the MLB Draft dating back to 2000:
|2021||Henry Davis||Pittsburgh Pirates||Catcher||Louisville|
|2020||Spencer Torkelson||Detroit Tigers||Third baseman||Arizona State University|
|2019||Adley Rutschman||Baltimore Orioles||Catcher||Oregon State University|
|2018||Casey Mize||Detroit Tigers||Right-handed pitcher||Auburn University|
|2017||Royce Lewis||Minnesota Twins||Shortstop||JSerra Catholic High School|
|2016||Mickey Moniak||Philadelphia Phillies||Outfielder||La Costa Canyon High School|
|2015||Dansby Swanson||Arizona Diamondbacks||Shortstop||Vanderbilt University|
|2014||Brady Aiken||Houston Astros||Left-handed pitcher||Cathedral Catholic High School|
|2013||Mark Appel||Houston Astros||Right-handed pitcher||Stanford University|
|2012||Carlos Correa||Houston Astros||Shortstop||Puerto Rico Baseball Academy and High School|
|2011||Gerrit Cole||Pittsburgh Pirates||Right-handed pitcher||University of California, Los Angeles|
|2010||Bryce Harper||Washington Nationals||Outfielder/Catcher||College of Southern Nevada|
|2009||Stephen Strasburg||Washington Nationals||Right-handed pitcher||San Diego State University|
|2008||Tim Beckham||Tampa Bay Rays||Shortstop||Griffin High School|
|2007||David Price||Tampa Bay Rays||Left-handed pitcher||Vanderbilt University|
|2006||Luke Hochevar||Kansas City Royals||Right-handed pitcher||Fort Worth Cats|
|2005||Justin Upton||Arizona Diamondbacks||Shortstop||Great Bridge High School|
|2004||Matt Bush||San Diego Padres||Shortstop||Mission Bay Senior High School|
|2003||Delmon Young||Tampa Bay Devil Rays||Outfielder||Adolfo Camarillo High School|
|2002||Bryan Bullington||Pittsburgh Pirates||Right-handed pitcher||Ball State University|
|2001||Joe Mauer||Minnesota Twins||Catcher||Cretin-Derham Hall High School|
|2000||Adrián González||Florida Marlins||First baseman||Eastlake High School|
MLB Draft FAQs
Yes, there is the Rule 5 Draft. It is held in December and used to prevent teams from stockpiling too many young players. Then there is the Rule 4 or Amateur Draft, held in July.
The 2022 MLB Amateur Draft starts on July 17 at 7 p.m. ET and will conclude on Tuesday, July 19,
With many prospects graduating high school or college around the middle of the season, teams want to get them into their farm systems sooner rather than later so they can develop into big-league players quicker. Hence, drafting in July rather than waiting for the end of the season to hold the amateur draft in November.
Since the draft began in June 1965, 23 players have bypassed the minors and gone straight to the big league team. It has only happened three times since 2000: Xavier Nady (2000), Mike Leake (2010), and Garrett Crochet (2020).
It depends on how much work the team thinks he needs and how quickly he develops. It is not unusual to see drafted players spend two to four years in the minors before getting called up.
Yes, ESPN and MLB Network have live coverage of the first round beginning Sunday at 7 p.m. ET .