MLB Draft Odds: Son of Former MLB Star Favored To Go No. 1, But Market Continues To Shift Toward Lee

The 2022 MLB Draft is set to take place Sunday, July 17 through Tuesday, July 19, as part of this season’s All-Star festivities in Los Angeles. Sports bettors can find odds at DraftKings on which player the Orioles will take with the No. 1 pick, as well as on other draft-related outcomes.

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Let’s examine MLB Draft odds for the No. 1 selection and a couple of other betting markets.

MLB Draft Odds: Who’s Going First?

Odds are current at DraftKings as of Friday afternoon, July 15:

• Druw Jones -120
• Brooks Lee +125
• Termarr Johnson +275
• Jackson Holliday +700
• Jacob Berry +2500
• Elijah Green +3000
• Gavin Cross +10000
• Kevin Prada +10000

Who will the Orioles take? That’s a good question. Baltimore general manager Mike Elias is known for not giving the press any indication of where the team is leaning. The last time the Orioles had the No. 1 pick was in 2019. Like this year, there was no clear indication then leading up to the draft how they were leaning.

They ended up taking the player perceived as the best prospect in the class, Adley Rutschman. But this year, Elias has given us something; he’s said the team does not expect to go with a pitcher at No. 1 and will likely take a high school player.

However, a shift in the betting market throughout the week suggests they could go another route.

Of the top five prospects in the country (according to MLB.com’s rankings), Brooks Lee is the only college player. The Athletic’s latest mock draft (as of July 11) has him going No. 1. His odds early in the day on Monday were closer to +900; they improved to +300 early in the afternoon. But as of Friday, they have gone down even further, to +125.

That means he has a 44.44% chance to go No. 1.

A recent MLB.com article makes Lee look like a strong possibility. Since the Orioles aren’t talking, the writer talked to other team executives and personnel. Of the 27 that responded, nine of them seem to think the Orioles will go with Lee. Why? Because there is a better chance Lee advances through the minors faster and becomes big league ready sooner.

However, while Lee received nine votes, Druw Jones received eight. Jones is considered the best player in the class and his odds still give him a better than 50% chance of going No. 1. Since the Orioles have the largest bonus pool ($17 million) to work with, they can afford to go after someone that will command top dollar.

Jackson Holliday, whose odds have taken a big dip since Monday, received three votes and Termarr Johnson received three. Baltimore has selected an outfielder with a top-five pick the last three years. A five-tool shortstop like Holliday would be a solid pick, and Johnson has been called the best high school hitter in years.

MLB Draft Props

Justin Crawford Draft Position: Under 13.5 +190

He’s not much of a power hitter, but the son of former MLB great Carl Crawford is a solid contact hitter, athletic, and one of the better defenders in the draft. MLB.com ranks him as the No. 13 prospect, but some mocks have him going as high as No. 9.

Kevin Parada Draft Position: Under 4.5 +170

Parada is rated as the No. 6 prospect in the draft, which means someone will need to be in the market for a catcher that can hit for him to go in the top four. Either Lee or Jones will go No. 1; whoever doesn’t will go No. 2. Jackson Holliday will probably go No. 3– which leaves the Pirates (who could really use a catcher like Parada) picking at No. 4.

Betting Analysis: Predictions and Sleeper Picks

Since Elias does not give us much help, it is challenging to predict what the Orioles will do with the No. 1 pick. Jones is still a heavy favorite, but it is hard to ignore all the attention Lee is getting. At this point, either appear to be a decent bet, but if you’d rather roll the dice on a sleeper pick with long odds– think about Elijah Green.

His odds only give him a 3.23% chance of going No. 1. But he is the No. 3 rated prospect in the draft. Yes, many mocks have had him slipping later in the top 10. But if the Orioles are going to shock us with who they take, he’d be a good selection.

Where to Bet on The MLB Draft

Bettors can place wagers on the MLB Draft in the following states, either online, at retail sportsbooks, or both:

New York                      Nevada                         Ontario

Michigan                       West Virginia              Arkansas

Virginia                          New Hampshire        Delaware

Tennessee                      Rhode Island             Mississippi

Colorado                       Oregon                         New Mexico

New Jersey                    Montana                    North Carolina

Pennsylvania                 Arizona                      South Dakota

Illinois                            Wyoming                   Maryland

Iowa                               Connecticut                Wisconsin

Indiana                          Louisiana                    Washington

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New bettors looking to get in on the action for the MLB Draft may want to explore these welcome bonuses:

MLB Draft History

The following table contains information on the No. 1 pick in the MLB Draft dating back to 2000:

MLB Draft FAQs