MLB Home Run Derby Odds & Predictions: Alonso Favored to Win Third Title

The best all-star festivities in sports take place on the diamond, and no event is better than the MLB Home Run Derby. With some of the game’s best power hitters meeting up to blast some absolute moonshots, here’s a look at 2023 Home Run Derby odds and predictions. 

Across the board, New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso is favored to win the Derby, which would be his third title and tie him with Ken Griffey Jr. for the most all-time. FanDuel has the best odds on an Alonso victory at +320. Outside of Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+350), we have a fresh crop of HR Derby participants, ranging from Luis Robert Jr. (+400), who is tied for the third most home runs in baseball, and youth-sensation Adley Rutschman (+1800).

The 2023 MLB Home Run Derby will be held at T-Mobile Park in Seattle on Monday, July 10, at 8 p.m. ET, and we are here to break down the odds from the top sports betting apps and give our best predictions.

Odds to Win 2023 MLB Home Run Derby

Here are the Home Run Derby odds from some of our favorite mobile sportsbooks.

Home Run Derby Bracket

Fox Sports tweeted on Wednesday night the bracket for this year’s competition.

The 2023 Home Run Derby bracket is set. 🤩

Who is going to be the champion?! 👑 pic.twitter.com/1DraFKCqld

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 6, 2023

Seeding for the derby was determined by the batters’ 2023 home run numbers through July 4. Robert and Alonso had 25 home runs apiece at the time of seeding, and the tie was broken by the number of home runs hit from June 15 through July 4, in which Robert had nine home runs to Alonso’s three. 

As a result, Robert ended up with the top seed in the field and takes on Rutschman, who has the longest odds to win the Home Run Derby. Alonso has a bit of a tougher matchup, as he takes on hometown kid Julio Rodriguez, who finished runner-up to Juan Soto at last year’s HR Derby in Los Angeles at Dodgers Stadium. 

The No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup features Mookie Betts (3) taking on Guerrero Jr. (6). This is Betts’ first Home Run Derby, and it’s Guerrero Jr.’s first appearance in the event since his unbelievable performance in Cleveland in 2019. While he lost to Alonso that year, Guerrero Jr. outlasted Joc Pederson in a thrilling second-round performance, hitting a record 40 home runs in that round.

The last first-round matchup is between two newcomers, as Adolis Garcia (4) takes on Randy Arozarena (5). This matchup features two players on the top teams in the American League. While Garcia is the better power bat, baseball fans remember Arozarena from his dominating performance in the 2020 playoffs, where he hit a postseason home run record of 10 homers.

Our Home Run Derby Prediction

This is a fascinating field of Home Run Derby participants. Not only are some of the best power-hitters in the field, but we have a healthy mix of some of the best young talent in the game. The Derby is always unpredictable, but placing a responsible wager can make the night much more enjoyable.

A look back at past winners shows that power hitters usually have an edge. With Soto, Alonso, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton as the most recent winners, that should give you a good idea of which type of player could win it this year.

Alonso feels like the safe pick, especially with how hard he has been hitting the ball this season, but none of that matters when the guy pitching will be throwing meatballs. For our Home Run Derby prediction, we will go with the guy with the record for most home runs hit in a single round and a guy whose game was tailor-made for a contest such as this.

Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+400, Caesars Sportsbook)

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Home Run Derby Props

The home run derby will dominate the sports schedule tonight, and bettors can take advantage of all the different Home Run Derby prop bets. Here, we will break down our favorite Home Run Derby props, and give our predictions.

Distance of Longest Home Run

• Over 485.5 (-112)
• Under 485.5 (-112)

There are a lot of power hitters in the field this year, meaning we may see a lot of moonshots. Last season, the longest home run hit in Dodgers stadium was from Soto, who hit one about 482 feet.

In 2021, tons of home runs went over 500 feet, but that is because of the Colorado air. Outside of that, we have not seen many 480+ foot shots recently. Despite putting on one of the best derby performances of all time, Guerrero only hit one 476 feet in Cleveland, and the year before that in Washington, the furthest hit ball went only 473 feet. 

Again, this derby lineup has a lot of power, but Rutschman has hit the longest home run amongst the participants (461 feet). According to Statcast park factor, T-Mobile Park ranks in the bottom half of the league in HR factor, and while we are in for a fun night of dingers, don’t expect to see many home runs flirting with 490+ feet tonight. 

Pick: Under 485.5 via FanDuel Sportsbook

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Player To Hit Most Home Runs In Round 1

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+300)
• Pete Alonso (+400)
• Julio Rodriguez (+400)
• Randy Arozarena (+700)
• Mookie Betts (+750)
• Luis Robert (+800)
• Adolis Garcia (+800)
• Adley Rutschman (+800)

As mentioned above, Guerrero put on a clinic in 2019, setting a record for most home runs hit in a single round. While his overall power numbers have dipped since then, when he gets ahold of one, they still go a long way. 

However, we are going to hunt for some value with this pick. Robert has some great odds among the longshots to have the most home runs in Round 1. Not only does he have one of the strongest bats in the field, but his effortless swing generates a lot of power, and he has the most home runs during the season amongst the derby participants. 

While guys like Alonso and Guerrero are favored for a reason, Robert has been swinging a hot bat this year, and at +800 odds, you can get some good value for him to have the most home runs in the first round. 

Pick: Luis Robert Jr. (+800) via BetMGM Sportsbook

Player To Hit Longest Home Run

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+240)
• Pete Alonso (+340)
• Luis Robert Jr. (+400)
• Julio Rodriguez (+700)
• Adolis Garcia (+700)
• Randy Arozarena (+750)
• Adley Rutschman (+2500)
• Mookie Betts (+2800)

This is a powerful field, and any of the top players in odds to hit the furthest home run would be a wise choice. While Rutschman has the longest home run this season, he and Betts do not have big ‘power profiles’ and, as a result, are long shots to hit the furthest home run. 

Prior to Rutschman’s monster blast, Rodriguez had the longest home run, and with this being his home ballpark, we are going to take a shot with the hometown kid.

Pick: Julio Rodriguez (+700) via FanDuel

Home Run Derby Format

The Home Run Derby is a three-round, single-elimination tournament where each participant has three minutes through the first two rounds and two minutes in the finals to hit as many home runs as possible. Batters get one timeout in the first two rounds and earn an additional stoppage if they reach the finals.

Each batter also gets 30 extra seconds at the end of his round and has the chance to earn an additional 30 seconds for every home run that is hit over 475 feet. If there is a tie at the end of the round, a 60-second swing-off will occur with no timeouts or bonus time.

If a tie remains after the swing-off, participants engage in a three-swing swing-off until a winner is crowned.

How To Watch The Home Run Derby

Date: Monday, July 10

First Pitch: 8 p.m. ET

Location: T-Mobile Park — Seattle, WA

Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN 2 (statcast viewing experience)