MLB Home Run Leader Odds for 2023: Aaron Judge the Favorite, but Consider a Bet at Longer Price is an independent sports news and information service. has partnerships with some of the top legal and licensed sportsbook companies in the US. When you claim a bonus offer or promotion through a link on this site, Gaming Today may receive referral compensation from the sportsbook company. Although the relationships we have with sportsbook companies may influence the order in which we place companies on the site, all reviews, recommendations, and opinions are wholly our own. They are the recommendations from our authors and contributors who are avid sports fans themselves.

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Aaron Judge enters the 2023 season as the betting favorite to win the MLB home run title for the second straight year. Here, we look at MLB Home Run Leader odds as the season approaches.

Odds To Lead MLB in Home Runs in 2023

Here is the top of the HR leader oddsboard at Caesars Sportsbook. It’s always smart to shop around various legal US sports betting apps to find the best prices for your bets.

PlayerTeamCaesars (Use Code: TODAYFULL)2022 Home Run TotalAverage HR Per 162 Games
Aaron JudgeYankees+6006249
Vlad Guerrero Jr.Blue Jays+10003233
Kyle SchwarberPhillies+10004639
Mike TroutAngels+10004040
Yordan ÁlvarezAstros+12003743
Pete AlonsoMets+12004045
Austin RileyBraves+20003835
Shohei OhtaniAngels+20003436
Matt OlsonBraves+25003439
Fernando Tatis Jr.Padres+25004248
Juan SotoPadres+30002733
Giancarlo StantonYankees+30003143
Kyle TuckerAstros+30003030
Eloy JiménezWhite Sox+35001636
Ronald Acuña Jr.Braves+40001538
Byron BuxtonTwins+45002827

Let’s examine the top candidates and a few longshots.

Aaron Judge, Yankees (+600)

MLB Home Run Leader Odds for 2023: Judge the Favorite, but Consider This Longshot
Aaron Judge is the betting favorite to lead MLB home runs in 2023. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez, File)

Even if Judge hit 20 fewer home runs than he did in 2022, he’d still be in the mix for leadership in the category. The only reason to think the Yankee may not win the MLB homer title again is if he falls to injury. That hasn’t been unusual for the tall man in pinstripes.

Prediction: 42 HR

Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+1000)

In 2021, Guerrero belted 48 homers to lead the American League. He struggled in May last season, which contributed to his 14-HR dropoff. But, Vlad Jr. has something going for him: he stays in the lineup. He’s missed only three games in the last three seasons.

Prediction: 40 HR

Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+1000)

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a more joyous slugger than Schwarber. He just loves to hold the lumber in his meaty hands. Last season, he smacked 46 HR in the regular season and six more in the postseason. He’ll have more protection in the lineup this year, too, with the arrival of Trea Turner.

Prediction: 35 HR

Mike Trout, Angels (+1000)

31-year-old Trout is transitioning into his late-career power phase. It happens to almost every superstar: Willie Mays, Henry Aaron, Ken Griffey Jr. In this period, Trout will use his tree-trunk-like legs and massive forearms to hit more homers. Gone are the days of 35- doubles and 20+ steals. The Millville Meteor is now The Jersey Jackhammer. Expect more taters in Southern California.

Prediction: 43 HR and his first home run title

Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+1200)

There may come a time when Alvarez contends for a triple crown. He’s that talented. But for now, he still hasn’t quite learned the sage advice that Ted Williams often repeated: “Pick your pitch and pull it.” Alvarez showed a penchant for stroking singles the opposite way, which is great for the team, but not if you want to wear the home run crown.

Prediction: 33 HR

Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+2500)

For the first 23 games of the season, Tatis will be a spectator, sidelined due to the suspension that spills over from 2022. How happy would Padres fans be if Tatis were able to win a home run title despite missing basically a month? Could happen, and if it does, a $100 winning bet would get you $2,500 from Caesars.

Prediction: 31 HR

Eloy Jiménez, White Sox (+3500)

The man they call “Big Baby” might be the most-gifted power hitter in the American League, including Judge. That’s because Jiménez has a shorter, more power-packed swing. He hasn’t played even 125 games in a season since 2019, but if he sticks in the Sox lineup, Jiménez could dethrone The Big Fella in the Bronx.

Prediction: 35 HR

Cody Bellinger, Cubs (+15000)

Here’s your longshot pick. Bellinger won the Rookie of the Year in 2017 and the National League MVP Award in 2019. Remember that? Seems like eons ago, right? Since his MVP season for the Dodgers, Bellinger has fallen into a deep hole, hitting .203 while averaging  14 HR per. His slugging percentage has been .376 since he won the MVP. Blech.

But, as they say, a change of scenery can mean everything, and Bellinger will be wearing a different blue in 2023: that of the Cubs. As a lefthanded hitter with a swing that moves short to the baseball, Bellinger could be a perfect fit for cozy Wrigley Field.

A winning $100 bet on Bellinger to win the 2023 MLB home run crown would pay a bank-account-busting $15,000.

Prediction: 44 HR

Also read: 2023 World Series odds | 2023 NL MVP odds | 2023 AL MVP 0dds

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About the Author
Dan Holmes

Dan Holmes

Writer and Contributor
Dan Holmes is a writer and contributor for Gaming Today with plenty of experience under his belt. Dan has written three books about sports and previously worked for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Major League Baseball. Currently, Dan is residing in Michigan with his family.

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