MLB Home Run Leader Odds for 2023: Aaron Judge the Favorite, but Consider a Bet at Longer Price

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Aaron Judge enters the 2023 season as the betting favorite to win the MLB home run title for the second straight year. Here, we look at MLB Home Run Leader odds ahead of Opening Day on Thursday.

Odds To Lead MLB in Home Runs in 2023

Below is the top of the HR leader oddsboard at Caesars Sportsbook. It’s always smart to shop around various legal US sports betting apps to find the best prices for your bets.

PlayerTeamCaesars (Use Code: TODAYFULL)2022 Home Run TotalAverage HR Per 162 Games
Aaron JudgeYankees+6006249
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Blue Jays+10003233
Kyle SchwarberPhillies+10004639
Mike TroutAngels+12004040
Yordan ÁlvarezAstros+12003743
Pete AlonsoMets+12004045
Austin RileyBraves+20003835
Shohei OhtaniAngels+20003436
Ronald Acuña Jr.Braves+25001538
Matt OlsonBraves+25003439
Giancarlo StantonYankees+25003143
Fernando Tatis Jr.Padres+25004248
Juan SotoPadres+30002733
Kyle TuckerAstros+30003030
Eloy JiménezWhite Sox+35001636
Rafael DeversRed Sox+40002733
Julio RodríguezMariners+40002834
Byron BuxtonTwins+45002827

Betting Favorites for 2023 MLB HR Crown + Predictions

Let’s examine the top candidates and a few longshots.

Aaron Judge, Yankees (+600 odds)

MLB Home Run Leader Odds for 2023: Judge the Favorite, but Consider This Longshot
Aaron Judge is the betting favorite to lead MLB home runs in 2023. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez, File)

Even if Judge hit 20 fewer home runs than he did in 2022, he’d still be in the mix for leadership in the category. The only reason to think the Yankee may not win the MLB homer title again is if he falls to injury. That hasn’t been unusual for the tall man in pinstripes.

Prediction: 42 HR

Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+1000 odds)

In 2021, Guerrero belted 48 homers to lead the American League. He struggled in May last season, which contributed to his 14-HR dropoff. But, Vlad Jr. has something going for him: he stays in the lineup. He’s missed only three games in the last three seasons.

Prediction: 40 HR

Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+1000 odds)

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a more joyous slugger than Schwarber. He just loves to hold the lumber in his meaty hands. Last season, he smacked 46 HR in the regular season and six more in the postseason. He’ll have more protection in the lineup this year, too, with the arrival of Trea Turner.

Prediction: 35 HR

Mike Trout, Angels (+1200 odds)

31-year-old Trout is transitioning into his late-career power phase. It happens to almost every superstar: Willie Mays, Henry Aaron, Ken Griffey Jr. In this period, Trout will use his tree-trunk-like legs and massive forearms to hit more homers. Gone are the days of 35- doubles and 20+ steals. The Millville Meteor is now The Jersey Jackhammer. Expect more taters in Southern California.

Prediction: 43 HR and his first home run title

Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+1200 odds)

There may come a time when Alvarez contends for a triple crown. He’s that talented. But for now, he still hasn’t quite learned the sage advice that Ted Williams often repeated: “Pick your pitch and pull it.” Alvarez showed a penchant for stroking singles the opposite way, which is great for the team, but not if you want to wear the home run crown.

Prediction: 33 HR

Longshots To Win 2023 MLB Title

Julio Rodríguez, Mariners (+4000 odds)

There will come a day when Rodríguez, who won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, will hit 40+ homers. But he’s still figuring out the league, and most power hitters hit their prime “tater” years in their late 20s and early 30s. Rodríguez is 22, and he may lead the Mariners back to the playoffs for a second consecutive season, but we don’t see the Dominican superstar competing for HR honors…yet.

Prediction: 29 HR

Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+2500 odds)

For the first 23 games of the season, Tatis will be a spectator, sidelined due to the suspension that spills over from 2022. How happy would Padres fans be if Tatis were able to win a home run title despite missing basically a month? Could happen, and if it does, a $100 winning bet would get you $2,500 from Caesars.

Prediction: 31 HR

Eloy Jiménez, White Sox (+3500 odds)

The man they call “Big Baby” might be the most-gifted power hitter in the American League, including Judge. That’s because Jiménez has a shorter, more power-packed swing. He hasn’t played even 125 games in a season since 2019, but if he sticks in the Sox lineup, Jiménez could dethrone The Big Fella in the Bronx.

Prediction: 35 HR

Cody Bellinger, Cubs (+15000 odds)

Here’s your longshot pick. Bellinger won the Rookie of the Year in 2017 and the National League MVP Award in 2019. Remember that? Seems like eons ago, right? Since his MVP season for the Dodgers, Bellinger has fallen into a deep hole, hitting .203 while averaging  14 HR per. His slugging percentage has been .376 since he won the MVP. Blech.

But, as they say, a change of scenery can mean everything, and Bellinger will be wearing a different blue in 2023: that of the Cubs. As a lefthanded hitter with a swing that moves short to the baseball, Bellinger could be a perfect fit for cozy Wrigley Field.

A winning $100 bet on Bellinger to win the 2023 MLB home run crown would pay a bank-account-busting $15,000.

Prediction: 44 HR

Also read: 2023 World Series Odds | MLB Game Odds | MLB Betting Offers | MLB MVP Odds | Run Line Betting

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About the Author
Dan Holmes

Dan Holmes

Writer and Contributor
Dan Holmes is a writer and contributor for Gaming Today with plenty of experience under his belt. Dan has written three books about sports and previously worked for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Major League Baseball. Currently, Dan is residing in Michigan with his family.

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