Aaron Judge enters the 2023 season as the betting favorite to win the MLB home run title for the second straight year. Here, we look at MLB Home Run Leader odds as the season approaches.
Odds To Lead MLB in Home Runs in 2023
Here is the top of the HR leader oddsboard at Caesars Sportsbook. It’s always smart to shop around various legal US sports betting apps to find the best prices for your bets.
|Player||Team||Caesars (Use Code: TODAYFULL)||2022 Home Run Total||Average HR Per 162 Games|
|Vlad Guerrero Jr.||Blue Jays||+1000||32||33|
|Fernando Tatis Jr.||Padres||+2500||42||48|
|Eloy Jiménez||White Sox||+3500||16||36|
|Ronald Acuña Jr.||Braves||+4000||15||38|
Let’s examine the top candidates and a few longshots.
Aaron Judge, Yankees (+600)
Even if Judge hit 20 fewer home runs than he did in 2022, he’d still be in the mix for leadership in the category. The only reason to think the Yankee may not win the MLB homer title again is if he falls to injury. That hasn’t been unusual for the tall man in pinstripes.
Prediction: 42 HR
Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+1000)
In 2021, Guerrero belted 48 homers to lead the American League. He struggled in May last season, which contributed to his 14-HR dropoff. But, Vlad Jr. has something going for him: he stays in the lineup. He’s missed only three games in the last three seasons.
Prediction: 40 HR
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+1000)
It’s been a while since we’ve seen a more joyous slugger than Schwarber. He just loves to hold the lumber in his meaty hands. Last season, he smacked 46 HR in the regular season and six more in the postseason. He’ll have more protection in the lineup this year, too, with the arrival of Trea Turner.
Prediction: 35 HR
Mike Trout, Angels (+1000)
31-year-old Trout is transitioning into his late-career power phase. It happens to almost every superstar: Willie Mays, Henry Aaron, Ken Griffey Jr. In this period, Trout will use his tree-trunk-like legs and massive forearms to hit more homers. Gone are the days of 35- doubles and 20+ steals. The Millville Meteor is now The Jersey Jackhammer. Expect more taters in Southern California.
Prediction: 43 HR and his first home run title
Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+1200)
There may come a time when Alvarez contends for a triple crown. He’s that talented. But for now, he still hasn’t quite learned the sage advice that Ted Williams often repeated: “Pick your pitch and pull it.” Alvarez showed a penchant for stroking singles the opposite way, which is great for the team, but not if you want to wear the home run crown.
Prediction: 33 HR
Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+2500)
For the first 23 games of the season, Tatis will be a spectator, sidelined due to the suspension that spills over from 2022. How happy would Padres fans be if Tatis were able to win a home run title despite missing basically a month? Could happen, and if it does, a $100 winning bet would get you $2,500 from Caesars.
Prediction: 31 HR
Eloy Jiménez, White Sox (+3500)
The man they call “Big Baby” might be the most-gifted power hitter in the American League, including Judge. That’s because Jiménez has a shorter, more power-packed swing. He hasn’t played even 125 games in a season since 2019, but if he sticks in the Sox lineup, Jiménez could dethrone The Big Fella in the Bronx.
Prediction: 35 HR
Cody Bellinger, Cubs (+15000)
Here’s your longshot pick. Bellinger won the Rookie of the Year in 2017 and the National League MVP Award in 2019. Remember that? Seems like eons ago, right? Since his MVP season for the Dodgers, Bellinger has fallen into a deep hole, hitting .203 while averaging 14 HR per. His slugging percentage has been .376 since he won the MVP. Blech.
But, as they say, a change of scenery can mean everything, and Bellinger will be wearing a different blue in 2023: that of the Cubs. As a lefthanded hitter with a swing that moves short to the baseball, Bellinger could be a perfect fit for cozy Wrigley Field.
A winning $100 bet on Bellinger to win the 2023 MLB home run crown would pay a bank-account-busting $15,000.
Prediction: 44 HR
Also read: 2023 World Series odds | 2023 NL MVP odds | 2023 AL MVP 0dds
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