MLB Home Run Props: Three Best Bets For Tuesday’s Slate

MLB takes center stage on Tuesday as the only major North American sport on the evening’s schedule. We have a 15-game slate tonight, meaning bettors have plenty of opportunities to find some winners. If you are looking for some plus-money wagers, we have you covered with our three best MLB home run prop bets for Tuesday, May 30.

With so many games to pick from, trying to find the guys who will launch a baseball on any given night can be challenging. Luckily, we did the hard work, digging through the data and finding the three best picks to hit a home run tonight.

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Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from BetMGM for tonight’s MLB slate, although you should check several of the top sports betting apps to find the best prices for your plays. While we are focusing on home run props, knowing how the oddsmakers feel about each game can help you become a more profitable bettor. 

MLB Home Runs Prop Predictions (05/30/2023)

Ozzie Albies (+400, BetMGM)

It has been a tough season for Ozzie Albies, but he has been hitting the ball harder than ever, especially against left-handed pitching. When going up against lefties this year, Albies is hitting .452 with five home runs, 15 RBI, a .371 ISO, and a wRC+ of 244.

For whatever reason, Albies has just seen left-handed pitching much better this season, and he will see another tonight in JP Sears. On the season, Sears has elevated his K/9 and lowered his walk rate, but his HR/9 is up to 2.01, and Sears’ Barrel rate is up to 11%. While he has done an excellent job getting guys to chase, he is giving up a lot of hard contact right now, and Albies, while having a down year offensively, is hitting for more power.

Albies has hit three home runs in May but has not hit one out since May 14 against the Blue Jays off lefty Yusei Kikuchi. The switch hitter has a career slash of .338/.365/.583 with an OPS of .948 against lefties in only 727 ABs. With how well he has hit southpaws, and Sears’ struggles giving up hard contact, expect Albies to hit one out tonight.

Paul Goldschmidt (+340, DraftKings)

The reigning NL MVP is having another great start to the season, with a slash of .290/.395/.517 with an OPS+ of 149. While he is not at the same production level as last season, Paul Goldschmidt is hitting the ball harder than ever this season.

He enters tonight with career highs in Barrel% (14.7%), HardHit% (55.1%), xwOBA (.409), Exit Velocity (93.8), and Launch Angle (16.6). On the season, he has hit 10 home runs, with three coming in the last week of play. Not only does he hit for power, but Goldschmidt is one of the best pure hitters in the game. His elite feel of the zone and low chase rate give him more opportunity to get his pitch and crank one.

He goes up against Zack Greinke and the Royals tonight, which is a favorable matchup. It is clear that Grenkie is at the end of his rope, as he has been getting smoked all season. He ranks in the 38th percentile in HardHit%, 41st in Barrel%, and 32nd percentile in average exit velocity. In his career, Goldschmidt has nine hits off Grenkie in 21 ABs, three being home runs.

Goldschmidt has been hot lately, and he has a favorable pitching matchup to go yard tonight.

Brandon Lowe (+380, DraftKings)

This season, Brandon Lowe has either hit a home run or hasn’t done much of anything at the plate. Luckily, the Rays are an absolute wagon, so having Lowe in the lineup is actually a benefit. They are so good that they can afford Lowe to strike out a bunch if that means they enjoy his power simultaneously.

His strikeout rate is up, and he enters tonight with a sub-100 wRC+, but his ISO is up to .195, and his HardHit% has risen over 8% to 48.6%. Lowe also has a 12.4% Barrel rate and ranks in the 81st percentile in average exit velocity and Barrel%.

While he has struck out a lot, he is up against Kyle Hendricks, who has only made one start this season and has been regressing yearly since 2019. Last year, Hendricks turned in his highest HR/9 of his career (1.60), and with that came a lot of hard contact with a 9.9% Barrel rate and a launch angle of 16.5°, which is 5° more than his 2021 numbers, or any other season in his career.

He has always been effective at getting batters to swing out of the zone, but he is not the same pitcher anymore. Hendricks was never a strikeout merchant in previous seasons, but he would draw weak contact and let his defense get some work. Unless he has changed something from the last three seasons, Hendricks is a good matchup for this Tampa offense, especially a pure-power guy like Lowe.

Best MLB Sports Betting Bonuses

As you go to place your MLB home run bets, make sure you check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers. For every sportsbook you sign up with, you can claim bonus bets, which can help you build your bankroll for the MLB season.

Here are the best sportsbook bonuses from our favorite mobile sports betting platforms.