MLB Home Run Props: Three Best Bets For Tuesday’s Slate

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MLB takes center stage on Tuesday as the only major North American sport on the evening’s schedule. We have a 15-game slate tonight, meaning bettors have plenty of opportunities to find some winners. If you are looking for some plus-money wagers, we have you covered with our three best MLB home run prop bets for Tuesday, May 30.

With so many games to pick from, trying to find the guys who will launch a baseball on any given night can be challenging. Luckily, we did the hard work, digging through the data and finding the three best picks to hit a home run tonight.

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Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from BetMGM for tonight’s MLB slate, although you should check several of the top sports betting apps to find the best prices for your plays. While we are focusing on home run props, knowing how the oddsmakers feel about each game can help you become a more profitable bettor. 

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Mon (4/15) @ 7:10pm ET PIT Pirates +2.5 +225 +1600 u9.5 -303
NY Mets -2.5 -303 -10000 o9.5 +225
Mon (4/15) @ 7:41pm ET KC Royals -1.5 -3333 -10000 u3.5 -130
CHI White Sox +1.5 +1000 +2200 o3.5 +100
Mon (4/15) @ 10:10pm ET WAS Nationals -1.5 -667 -2500 u11.5 -120
LA Dodgers +1.5 +400 +950 o11.5 -105
Tue (4/16) @ 1:10pm ET TEX Rangers -1.5 +140 -120 u8 -110
DET Tigers +1.5 -164 +100 o8 -110
Tue (4/16) @ 6:35pm ET MIN Twins +140 u8 -105
BAL Orioles -164 o8 -115
Tue (4/16) @ 6:40pm ET SF Giants -1.5 +125 -141 u8.5 -125
MIA Marlins +1.5 -149 +115 o8.5 -105
Tue (4/16) @ 6:40pm ET COL Rockies +1.5 +105 +200 o8.5 -105
PHI Phillies -1.5 -125 -250 u8.5 -115
Tue (4/16) @ 6:50pm ET LA Angels +1.5 -164 +125 o8 -110
TB Rays -1.5 +135 -149 u8 -110
Tue (4/16) @ 7:07pm ET NY Yankees -1.5 +145 -110 o8.5 -110
TOR Blue Jays +1.5 -175 -110 u8.5 -110
Tue (4/16) @ 7:10pm ET CLE Guardians -1.5 +155 -105 u9 -120
BOS Red Sox +1.5 -189 -115 o9 +100
Tue (4/16) @ 7:40pm ET SD Padres -1.5 +135 -125 u8.5 -110
MIL Brewers +1.5 -161 +105 o8.5 -110
Tue (4/16) @ 8:10pm ET ATL Braves -1.5 +140 -115 o10 -115
HOU Astros +1.5 -164 -105 u10 -105
Tue (4/16) @ 9:40pm ET CHI Cubs +1.5 -185 +105 u10 -115
ARI Diamondbacks -1.5 +150 -125 o10 -105
Tue (4/16) @ 9:40pm ET STL Cardinals -1.5 +115 -149 u8 -110
OAK Athletics +1.5 -141 +125 o8 -110
Tue (4/16) @ 9:40pm ET CIN Reds +1.5 -185 +110 o7 -115
SEA Mariners -1.5 +150 -135 u7 -105
Mon (4/15) @ 6:35pm ET MIN Twins +2.5 +1200
BAL Orioles -2.5 -5000

MLB Home Runs Prop Predictions (05/30/2023)

Ozzie Albies (+400, BetMGM)

It has been a tough season for Ozzie Albies, but he has been hitting the ball harder than ever, especially against left-handed pitching. When going up against lefties this year, Albies is hitting .452 with five home runs, 15 RBI, a .371 ISO, and a wRC+ of 244.

Braves' Ozzie Albies is one of our MLB HR prop bets for Tuesday night.
Atlanta Braves’ Ozzie Albies (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

For whatever reason, Albies has just seen left-handed pitching much better this season, and he will see another tonight in JP Sears. On the season, Sears has elevated his K/9 and lowered his walk rate, but his HR/9 is up to 2.01, and Sears’ Barrel rate is up to 11%. While he has done an excellent job getting guys to chase, he is giving up a lot of hard contact right now, and Albies, while having a down year offensively, is hitting for more power.

Albies has hit three home runs in May but has not hit one out since May 14 against the Blue Jays off lefty Yusei Kikuchi. The switch hitter has a career slash of .338/.365/.583 with an OPS of .948 against lefties in only 727 ABs. With how well he has hit southpaws, and Sears’ struggles giving up hard contact, expect Albies to hit one out tonight.

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Paul Goldschmidt (+340, DraftKings)

The reigning NL MVP is having another great start to the season, with a slash of .290/.395/.517 with an OPS+ of 149. While he is not at the same production level as last season, Paul Goldschmidt is hitting the ball harder than ever this season.

He enters tonight with career highs in Barrel% (14.7%), HardHit% (55.1%), xwOBA (.409), Exit Velocity (93.8), and Launch Angle (16.6). On the season, he has hit 10 home runs, with three coming in the last week of play. Not only does he hit for power, but Goldschmidt is one of the best pure hitters in the game. His elite feel of the zone and low chase rate give him more opportunity to get his pitch and crank one.

He goes up against Zack Greinke and the Royals tonight, which is a favorable matchup. It is clear that Grenkie is at the end of his rope, as he has been getting smoked all season. He ranks in the 38th percentile in HardHit%, 41st in Barrel%, and 32nd percentile in average exit velocity. In his career, Goldschmidt has nine hits off Grenkie in 21 ABs, three being home runs.

Goldschmidt has been hot lately, and he has a favorable pitching matchup to go yard tonight.

Brandon Lowe (+380, DraftKings)

This season, Brandon Lowe has either hit a home run or hasn’t done much of anything at the plate. Luckily, the Rays are an absolute wagon, so having Lowe in the lineup is actually a benefit. They are so good that they can afford Lowe to strike out a bunch if that means they enjoy his power simultaneously.

His strikeout rate is up, and he enters tonight with a sub-100 wRC+, but his ISO is up to .195, and his HardHit% has risen over 8% to 48.6%. Lowe also has a 12.4% Barrel rate and ranks in the 81st percentile in average exit velocity and Barrel%.

While he has struck out a lot, he is up against Kyle Hendricks, who has only made one start this season and has been regressing yearly since 2019. Last year, Hendricks turned in his highest HR/9 of his career (1.60), and with that came a lot of hard contact with a 9.9% Barrel rate and a launch angle of 16.5°, which is 5° more than his 2021 numbers, or any other season in his career.

He has always been effective at getting batters to swing out of the zone, but he is not the same pitcher anymore. Hendricks was never a strikeout merchant in previous seasons, but he would draw weak contact and let his defense get some work. Unless he has changed something from the last three seasons, Hendricks is a good matchup for this Tampa offense, especially a pure-power guy like Lowe.

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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