MLB Home Run Props: Judge, Harper Headline Wednesday’s Best Bets

We have another full slate of baseball that lasts all day on Wednesday, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to place some MLB wagers. With a 14-game slate, it can be tricky trying to find a winner. Luckily, we are here to do the work for you and find the three best MLB home run props bets for Wednesday, May 31.

Our home run props went 0-3 last night, but in baseball, sometimes you have a tough night. All you can do is dust yourself off and get back in the lab to find some winners. Based on pitching matchups and recent trends, we have identified three players who are most likely to hit one out of the park tonight. 

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Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from our friends at BetMGM for tonight’s MLB slate. It’s always wise to shop around several of the top US sports betting apps to find the best prices for your plays.

MLB Home Run Predictions (05/30/2023)

Aaron Judge (+220, FanDuel)

Coming off his historic MVP season, Aaron Judge has not slowed down one bit. With another home run in last night’s game against the Mariners, that makes three-straight games with a bomb, including two home runs in the first game of this series.

While he is not making as much contact as last season, the power in his bat has gotten even stronger. He enters tonight’s game ranked in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity, xwOBA, Barrel%, xSLG, and HardHit%. Judge also has laid off pitches out of the zone, which gives him more opportunity to get his pitch and knock one out.

Tonight, he goes up against Seattle’s George Kirby, who does a solid job at limiting hard contact but has given up seven home runs in 63 IP, compared to 13 longballs in 130 IP last season. Luckily for the Mariners, they have one of the best bullpens in the league and have given up the fewest home runs.

However, Judge has been on another level this season and is swinging a scorching hot bat right now. This season, Judge has homered in nine percent of his ABs, and for his career against Seattle, he has a slash of .288/.410/.721 with an OPS of 1.131.

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Bryce Harper (+350, DraftKings)

In only 23 games played since returning from Tommy John surgery, Bryce Harper continues to be one of the best hitters in the baseball. While the power has not fully been displayed, Harper carries a slash of .306/.406/.482 with a wRC+ of 139.

Harper only has three home runs in 101 plate appearances, but he is still hitting the ball hard, with a Barrell% of 12.9%, a tick higher than last season. His HardHit% rate is down almost 8%, but as the season progresses, Harper’s bat should start warming up. With an xSLG of .510, Harper is due for some positive regression with his power, and tonight is a great night for that to happen.

Tonight, he goes against Carlos Carrasco and the New York Mets, which is a favorable matchup for a power-hitting Phillies lineup. Carrasco has a 6.75 ERA on the season, and his HR/9 is up to 1.78. What’s more alarming is that Carrasco’s K% has dropped by almost 10%, and he is giving up a ton of hard contact, even to guys who do not hit for power.

It also helps that the Mets bullpen, while not as bad as the numbers indicate, has been getting smoked all season. They have given up 29 home runs, tied for the second-most in baseball, and have only walked 77 batters. That may not sound like it matters, but Harper is very patient at the dish, so he gets walked a lot. As long as Carrasco and the Mets bullpen continue to give up moonshots, Harper should be in an excellent spot to hit a home run tonight.

The Phillies have a potent lineup, so make sure you check out each player’s odds of hitting a home run tonight. Other good Phillies’ home run props for tonight include Kyle Schwarber (+320), Nick Castellanos (+500), and Brandon Marsh (+800), who has hit the ball well as of late.

Jorge Soler (+290, DraftKings)

Outside of Judge, there may not be a hotter hitter on the planet than Jorge Soler. He has not hit a home run in his last two games, and that makes me think he is due. Before these last two games, where Soler is 0-7 with three Ks, Soler had hit a home run in five straight games.

On the season, Soler ranks in the 97th percentile in xSLG and Barrel%, and his ISO is up to .305. He has always been a pure-power hitter, and he showcased that in the World Series with the Atlanta Braves, but this year, his bat carries more pop. His Barrel rate is up to 18.9%, and even his HardHit% has risen from last year.

Despite how well he has been swinging the bat lately, he still comes in with an xBA (.264) and xSLG (.604) that are higher than his actual stats, pointing towards some positive regression. Tonight, he faces Blake Snell, which is a very favorable matchup. Against lefties this year, Soler has nine home runs and a slash of .354/.456/.958 with an OPS of 1.414 and a wRC+ of 267. Those are monster numbers.

While Snell traditionally does not give up a lot of hard contact, that is not the case this year. His Barrell% is up 5%, and he is giving up 1.62 HR/9, by far the highest in his career. The Padres bullpen has been good at limiting hard contact, but Soler has been crushing baseballs as of late, and you can still get a good price for him to hit one for tonight’s game.

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