It’s Friday, and we have a full slate of baseball to enjoy tonight. With 15 games on the schedule, bettors have plenty of opportunities to place a few wagers. Among the most exciting bets to make on the diamond is on a player to go deep, and we are here to offer our three best MLB home run prop bets for Friday, June 2.
Our home runs prop bets for tonight include some of the best power hitters in the game. There are hundreds of home run props to pick from, which can be overwhelming. That is where we come in, as we have poured over the data and found the three most likely players to hit a bomb on Friday.
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Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are betting odds from Caesars Sportsbook on tonight’s MLB slate. Before placing your wagers, check several of the best US sports betting apps to make sure you are getting the best lines for your bets.
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/02/2023)
Aaron Judge (+310, FanDuel)
It is getting ridiculous how good Aaron Judge is at hitting baseballs. After last season, it was hard to imagine Judge could replicate that production level. However, he is on pace to hit 63 home runs and drive in 162 runs, which is remarkable.
The power for Judge has always been there, as evident by a 52-home run rookie campaign. His problems have always been health and a high Whiff rate. While he still ranks towards the bottom of the league in K% and Whiff%, Judge is in the 100th percentile in xwOBA, Barrel%, xSLG, average exit velocity, and HardHit%.
This year, he has cut down on swings outside the strike zone, but Judge also enters tonight with career highs in Barrel rate (30.6%), HardHit% (64%), and xwOBA (.479). Judge goes up against Clayton Kershaw tonight, which is a favorable matchup considering Kershaw is giving up more hard contact than ever. While Judge has struggled against lefties this season, the Dodgers bullpen has given up the seventh-most home runs this year.
For whatever reason, Judge hits right-handed pitching better but still has a career slash of .271/.408/.562 with an OPS of .969 against lefties. This is a big-time player going up against a big-time pitcher in a big-time ballpark. The stage is set for Judge to hit one out and continue his second-consecutive historic season.
Matt Olson (+330, FanDuel)
While this is not the most productive year at the plate for Matt Olson, he has been crushing the ball better than ever this season. Olson enters tonight with 17 home runs and a 136 wRC+. He also holds career highs in ISO (.300), Barrel% (22.1%), and HardHit% (55.1%).
He has benefited from some luck this season, with his xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA all being lower than his actual production, but that does not change the fact that when he makes contact, it is a scene.
Olson has struggled against the fastball this season, which is usually the pitch he hits the best. With a -2 run value and a Whiff% of 35.1% against the four-seamer, Olson is not hitting the ball as often and as well as in previous seasons. This could be a problem as DBacks starter Merrill Kelly has a good fastball. However, Olson has a HardHit% of 62% against fastballs this year and has always hit that pitch well.
He also has the pleasure of hitting at Chase Field. While this is not necessarily a hitter-friendly ballpark, it is a dome that greatly benefits power hitters such as Olson. With how hard he is hitting the ball, he has a good shot at hitting one tonight.
J.D. Martinez (+550, DraftKings)
In his first year with the Dodgers, J.D. Martinez is starting to look like the old version of himself. While he is striking out at an alarming rate, he is also hitting the crap out of the ball and enters play with a 145 wRC+.
His last few seasons with the Red Sox were not pretty as he was not hitting the ball as hard as he used to, and his swinging strike rate kept increasing. While the swing and miss numbers continue to rise, Martinez is also posting career highs in Barrel% and HardHit%, and his xSLG and xwOBA point towards some positive regression.
Tonight, he faces Domingo Germán, who has had a couple of great starts this year, albeit with a little outside help. He was shelled in his last outing, giving up four earned runs and three walks in 6.1 IP. On the season, Germán has a 3.98 ERA, and he improved his K/9 to 8.78 this season. However, he is also giving up the hardest contact of his career, and his HR/9 sitting at 1.33 is very concerning.
The wind is blowing out tonight at Dodger Stadium, and the ballpark has the second-highest home run factor in MLB, according to Park Factor by Statcast. Martinez has been on fire, which should continue tonight.
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