The MLB rules the sports calendar today with a 15-game slate. This means bettors will have plenty of opportunities to place a bet on the action, including bets on who will hit a home run. With so many games tonight, it can be challenging to find a winner. Luckily, we are here to help with our three-best MLB home run prop bets for Tuesday, June 6.
Tonight’s home run props predictions feature a few names that we have already bet on in the past and a long shot with tremendous value. We have done all the hard work, meaning all you have to do is place a bet on our three-most likely players to hit a home run tonight.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/06/2023)
Matt Olson (+300, DraftKings)
Entering tonight’s matchup, Matt Olson has been in a bit of a slump. Over his last 10 games, Olson is only batting .222 but also has an OBP of .356, SLG of .372, and a .828 OPS. Also, three of his eight hits have been homers, proving that although he is having a down year at the plate compared to his standards, he can still hit the ball for power.
On the season, Olson is striking out at a career-high rate, but he is hitting the ball as hard as ever, with a 55.6% HardHit% and a Barrell% of 21.1%, both of which rank in the 99th percentile. Tonight, he will go up against Carlos Carrasco and the New York Mets, which is a favorable matchup for a left-handed power bat.
Although Carrasco has had back-to-back starts allowing only one earned run, he has not been very good this year, giving up a lot of hard contact and not getting guys to swing and miss. In his days with Cleveland, Carrasco would constantly be towards the top in K% and did not give up as many Barrels and hard-hit balls. With the Mets, he has been giving up more home runs than ever, and with a power bat that has been hitting balls out during a slump, Olson should be in a good position to hit a homer tonight.
Even if he does not hit one against Carrasco, the Mets’ bullpen has given up the fourth-most home runs on the season.
J.D. Martinez (+320, FanDuel)
I wouldn’t necessarily call this the resurgence of J.D. Martinez‘s career, but he has been mashing the ball this season. Sure, he is striking out at an alarming rate and is not getting on base as often, but he enters tonight’s game with career highs in HardHit% (54.8%) and Barrel% (18.5%).
Martinez has also been elite at hitting for power against righties as he has a wRC+ of 168 and 12 of his 14 home runs this season against right-handed pitching. His previous best season against righties was in 2018, when we saw the best version of Martinez with the Red Sox. He has been just as impactful against righties this year as in 2018, and he has a better ISO (.389), SLG (.695), and his HardHit% is over 10% higher this season.
Tonight, he is going up against a Reds pitching staff ranked 10th in HR/9 and fourth in team ERA (4.96). Cincinnati will send out Luke Weaver to get the start, and although his xERA points towards positive regression tonight, Weaver is giving up a lot of barrels and hard contact.
He ranks in the 15th percentile in Barrel%, 22nd percentile in HardHit%, and for his career, he has lived near the bottom of the league in max exit velocity, ranking in the 28th percentile this season. Martinez has hit five home runs in his last seven games, and with a favorable matchup, he is worth a play again tonight.
Gabriel Arias (+900, FanDuel)
This is a bit of a prayer, but FanDuel Sportsbook offers incredible odds on Gabriel Arias to hit one out tonight. If you look at his stats, he has not been all that great, as he is slashing .214/.308/.379 with a wRC+ of 93.
However, Arias has been swinging the bat very well as of late and is making it tougher to leave him out of the Guardians’ lineup. Cleveland has always had trust in Arias, as he even started a playoff game at first base last year despite never having a start there before in the majors. He responded with two hits, including a big double. This year, despite not having a sexy slash line, Arias has a 43.1% HardHit% and ranks in the 60th percentile in max exit velocity.
Trying to find playing time for Arias has been challenging, but Tito Francona has made it a point to get him in the lineup more, which has worked wonders for Arias. Since May, Arias has hit three home runs and has generated a 130 wRC+, which is among the best on the team.
Tonight, Arias will get a favorable matchup with James Paxton, who ranks towards the bottom of the league in Barrel rate, HardHit%, xSLG, and average exit velocity. Paxton has also posted career highs in HR/9 (1.89) and launch angle.
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