MLB Home Run Props: Why This +900 Long Shot Is Worth a Play Tonight is an independent sports news and information service. has partnerships with some of the top legal and licensed sportsbook companies in the US. When you claim a bonus offer or promotion through a link on this site, Gaming Today may receive referral compensation from the sportsbook company. Although the relationships we have with sportsbook companies may influence the order in which we place companies on the site, all reviews, recommendations, and opinions are wholly our own. They are the recommendations from our authors and contributors who are avid sports fans themselves.

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The MLB rules the sports calendar today with a 15-game slate. This means bettors will have plenty of opportunities to place a bet on the action, including bets on who will hit a home run. With so many games tonight, it can be challenging to find a winner. Luckily, we are here to help with our three-best MLB home run prop bets for Tuesday, June 6.

Tonight’s home run props predictions feature a few names that we have already bet on in the past and a long shot with tremendous value. We have done all the hard work, meaning all you have to do is place a bet on our three-most likely players to hit a home run tonight.

More baseball bettingOdds to win 2023 World Series | MLB game betting lines

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are betting odds from BetMGM Sportsbook on tonight’s MLB slate. Before placing your wagers, check out some of the best US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best lines for your bets.

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Wed (9/27) @ 2:10pm ET ARI Diamondbacks -2.5 -400 -10000 o4.5 -141
CHI White Sox +2.5 +280 +1800 u4.5 +110
Wed (9/27) @ 6:10pm ET TB Rays -4.5 -250 -10000 u6.5 -120
BOS Red Sox +4.5 +190 +3000 o6.5 -105
Wed (9/27) @ 6:10pm ET CIN Reds +2.5 +180 +1250 o5.5 -161
CLE Guardians -2.5 -250 -5000 u5.5 +125
Wed (9/27) @ 6:35pm ET WAS Nationals +3.5 -141 +1150 u7.5 -154
BAL Orioles -3.5 +110 -3333 o7.5 +120
Wed (9/27) @ 6:40pm ET PIT Pirates -1.5 +190 -120 u15.5 -154
PHI Phillies +1.5 -250 -105 o15.5 +120
Wed (9/27) @ 7:20pm ET CHI Cubs -1.5 -110 -200 u9.5 +100
ATL Braves +1.5 -115 +160 o9.5 -130
Wed (9/27) @ 8:40pm ET LA Dodgers -2.5 +100 -208 u12.5 -115
COL Rockies +2.5 -120 +170 o12.5 -105
Wed (9/27) @ 9:38pm ET TEX Rangers -1.5 +100 -161 u8.5 +100
LA Angels +1.5 -120 +135 o8.5 -120
Wed (9/27) @ 9:40pm ET HOU Astros -1.5 +150 -115 o8 -105
SEA Mariners +1.5 -185 -105 u8 -115
Wed (9/27) @ 9:45pm ET SD Padres +1.5 -200 -105 o8.5 -115
SF Giants -1.5 +165 -115 u8.5 -105
Thu (9/28) @ 1:10pm ET KC Royals -1.5 +165 -105 u7.5 -115
DET Tigers +1.5 -200 -115 o7.5 -105
Thu (9/28) @ 1:10pm ET OAK Athletics +1.5 +100 +220 u8.5 -110
MIN Twins -1.5 -120 -278 o8.5 -110
Thu (9/28) @ 4:10pm ET STL Cardinals +1.5 -135 +165 u8 -115
MIL Brewers -1.5 +110 -200 o8 -105
Thu (9/28) @ 7:07pm ET NY Yankees +1.5 -141 +155 o8.5 -115
TOR Blue Jays -1.5 +115 -189 u8.5 -105
Thu (9/28) @ 7:10pm ET MIA Marlins -1.5 +135 -135 o8 -105
NY Mets +1.5 -161 +110 u8 -115
Thu (9/28) @ 9:40pm ET TEX Rangers +1.5 -200 +110 u7.5 -110
SEA Mariners -1.5 +165 -135 o7.5 -110

MLB Home Run Predictions (06/06/2023)

Matt Olson (+300, DraftKings)

Entering tonight’s matchup, Matt Olson has been in a bit of a slump. Over his last 10 games, Olson is only batting .222 but also has an OBP of .356, SLG of .372, and a .828 OPS. Also, three of his eight hits have been homers, proving that although he is having a down year at the plate compared to his standards, he can still hit the ball for power.

On the season, Olson is striking out at a career-high rate, but he is hitting the ball as hard as ever, with a 55.6% HardHit% and a Barrell% of 21.1%, both of which rank in the 99th percentile. Tonight, he will go up against Carlos Carrasco and the New York Mets, which is a favorable matchup for a left-handed power bat.

Although Carrasco has had back-to-back starts allowing only one earned run, he has not been very good this year, giving up a lot of hard contact and not getting guys to swing and miss. In his days with Cleveland, Carrasco would constantly be towards the top in K% and did not give up as many Barrels and hard-hit balls. With the Mets, he has been giving up more home runs than ever, and with a power bat that has been hitting balls out during a slump, Olson should be in a good position to hit a homer tonight.

Even if he does not hit one against Carrasco, the Mets’ bullpen has given up the fourth-most home runs on the season.

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J.D. Martinez (+320, FanDuel)

I wouldn’t necessarily call this the resurgence of J.D. Martinez‘s career, but he has been mashing the ball this season. Sure, he is striking out at an alarming rate and is not getting on base as often, but he enters tonight’s game with career highs in HardHit% (54.8%) and Barrel% (18.5%).

Martinez has also been elite at hitting for power against righties as he has a wRC+ of 168 and 12 of his 14 home runs this season against right-handed pitching. His previous best season against righties was in 2018, when we saw the best version of Martinez with the Red Sox. He has been just as impactful against righties this year as in 2018, and he has a better ISO (.389), SLG (.695), and his HardHit% is over 10% higher this season.

Tonight, he is going up against a Reds pitching staff ranked 10th in HR/9 and fourth in team ERA (4.96). Cincinnati will send out Luke Weaver to get the start, and although his xERA points towards positive regression tonight, Weaver is giving up a lot of barrels and hard contact.

He ranks in the 15th percentile in Barrel%, 22nd percentile in HardHit%, and for his career, he has lived near the bottom of the league in max exit velocity, ranking in the 28th percentile this season. Martinez has hit five home runs in his last seven games, and with a favorable matchup, he is worth a play again tonight.

Gabriel Arias is worth a play in our MLB home run props despite being a +900 long shot.
Cleveland Guardians’ Gabriel Arias is worth a play in our MLB home run props despite being a +900 long shot. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Gabriel Arias (+900, FanDuel)

This is a bit of a prayer, but FanDuel Sportsbook offers incredible odds on Gabriel Arias to hit one out tonight. If you look at his stats, he has not been all that great, as he is slashing .214/.308/.379 with a wRC+ of 93.

However, Arias has been swinging the bat very well as of late and is making it tougher to leave him out of the Guardians’ lineup. Cleveland has always had trust in Arias, as he even started a playoff game at first base last year despite never having a start there before in the majors. He responded with two hits, including a big double. This year, despite not having a sexy slash line, Arias has a 43.1% HardHit% and ranks in the 60th percentile in max exit velocity.

Trying to find playing time for Arias has been challenging, but Tito Francona has made it a point to get him in the lineup more, which has worked wonders for Arias. Since May, Arias has hit three home runs and has generated a 130 wRC+, which is among the best on the team.

Tonight, Arias will get a favorable matchup with James Paxton, who ranks towards the bottom of the league in Barrel rate, HardHit%, xSLG, and average exit velocity. Paxton has also posted career highs in HR/9 (1.89) and launch angle.

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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