MLB Home Run Props: Why This +900 Long Shot Is Worth a Play Tonight

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The MLB rules the sports calendar today with a 15-game slate. This means bettors will have plenty of opportunities to place a bet on the action, including bets on who will hit a home run. With so many games tonight, it can be challenging to find a winner. Luckily, we are here to help with our three-best MLB home run prop bets for Tuesday, June 6.

Tonight’s home run props predictions feature a few names that we have already bet on in the past and a long shot with tremendous value. We have done all the hard work, meaning all you have to do is place a bet on our three-most likely players to hit a home run tonight.

More baseball bettingOdds to win 2023 World Series | MLB game betting lines

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are betting odds from BetMGM Sportsbook on tonight’s MLB slate. Before placing your wagers, check out some of the best US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best lines for your bets.

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Sun (4/21) @ 1:34pm ET HOU Astros +5.5 +210 +3300 o7.5 -110
WAS Nationals -5.5 -278 -10000 u7.5 -120
Sun (4/21) @ 1:35pm ET TB Rays -1.5 +1100 +600 u6.5 +125
NY Yankees +1.5 -5000 -1000 o6.5 -161
Sun (4/21) @ 1:35pm ET CHI White Sox +5.5 +700 +3300 o14.5 +3300
PHI Phillies -5.5 -1429 -10000 u14.5 -10000
Sun (4/21) @ 1:35pm ET BOS Red Sox -4.5 -3333 -10000 o7.5 -120
PIT Pirates +4.5 +1000 +3300 u7.5 -105
Sun (4/21) @ 1:40pm ET LA Angels +2.5 +320 +3300 u3.5 +115
CIN Reds -2.5 -455 -10000 o3.5 -149
Sun (4/21) @ 1:40pm ET OAK Athletics +3.5 +333 +3300 u9.5 +105
CLE Guardians -3.5 -500 -10000 o9.5 -135
Sun (4/21) @ 2:10pm ET BAL Orioles -3.5 -3333 -2000 o5.5 -125
KC Royals +3.5 +1000 +900 u5.5 +100
Sun (4/21) @ 2:10pm ET DET Tigers -4.5 -175 -10000 o6.5 +135
MIN Twins +4.5 +135 +2800 u6.5 -175
Sun (4/21) @ 2:15pm ET MIL Brewers -1.5 -3333 -10000 o2.5 -154
STL Cardinals +1.5 +1000 +3300 u2.5 +120
Sun (4/21) @ 2:20pm ET MIA Marlins -2.5 -667 -10000 u10.5 -164
CHI Cubs +2.5 +425 +2200 o10.5 +130
Sun (4/21) @ 4:05pm ET ARI Diamondbacks -1.5 -556 -10000 o6.5 -120
SF Giants +1.5 +375 +1500 u6.5 -105
Sun (4/21) @ 4:10pm ET NY Mets +9.5 +1000 +900 u10.5 -3333
LA Dodgers -9.5 -3333 -2000 o10.5 +1000
Sun (4/21) @ 4:10pm ET TOR Blue Jays +2.5 +375 +2500 u8.5 -154
SD Padres -2.5 -556 -10000 o8.5 +120
Sun (4/21) @ 7:10pm ET TEX Rangers +2.5 -120 -10000 u12.5 -130
ATL Braves -2.5 -105 +3300 o12.5 +100
Sun (4/21) @ 8:10pm ET SEA Mariners -1.5 +120 -130 u11 -110
COL Rockies +1.5 -145 +105 o11 -110
Mon (4/22) @ 1:05pm ET OAK Athletics +1.5 +100 +190 u8 -110
NY Yankees -1.5 -120 -250 o8 -110
Mon (4/22) @ 6:40pm ET PHI Phillies -1.5 +135 -120 u9 -120
CIN Reds +1.5 -164 +100 o9 +100
Mon (4/22) @ 6:40pm ET MIL Brewers -1.5 +160 +105 o7.5 -125
PIT Pirates +1.5 -208 -125 u7.5 -105
Mon (4/22) @ 6:50pm ET DET Tigers -1.5 +155 -115 o7 -120
TB Rays +1.5 -189 -105 u7 +100
Mon (4/22) @ 7:20pm ET MIA Marlins +1.5 +100 +185 u9 +100
ATL Braves -1.5 -120 -227 o9 -120
Mon (4/22) @ 7:40pm ET TOR Blue Jays -1.5 +150 -110 u8.5 +100
KC Royals +1.5 -185 -110 o8.5 -120
Mon (4/22) @ 7:40pm ET CHI White Sox +1.5 -141 +145 o8 -115
MIN Twins -1.5 +115 -175 u8 -105
Mon (4/22) @ 7:45pm ET ARI Diamondbacks -1.5 +155 -105 o8.5 -110
STL Cardinals +1.5 -189 -115 u8.5 -110
Mon (4/22) @ 8:40pm ET SD Padres -1.5 -125 -189 u10.5 -115
COL Rockies +1.5 +105 +155 o10.5 -105
Mon (4/22) @ 9:38pm ET BAL Orioles +1.5 -208 +100 o8.5 -120
LA Angels -1.5 +155 -120 u8.5 +100

MLB Home Run Predictions (06/06/2023)

Matt Olson (+300, DraftKings)

Entering tonight’s matchup, Matt Olson has been in a bit of a slump. Over his last 10 games, Olson is only batting .222 but also has an OBP of .356, SLG of .372, and a .828 OPS. Also, three of his eight hits have been homers, proving that although he is having a down year at the plate compared to his standards, he can still hit the ball for power.

On the season, Olson is striking out at a career-high rate, but he is hitting the ball as hard as ever, with a 55.6% HardHit% and a Barrell% of 21.1%, both of which rank in the 99th percentile. Tonight, he will go up against Carlos Carrasco and the New York Mets, which is a favorable matchup for a left-handed power bat.

Although Carrasco has had back-to-back starts allowing only one earned run, he has not been very good this year, giving up a lot of hard contact and not getting guys to swing and miss. In his days with Cleveland, Carrasco would constantly be towards the top in K% and did not give up as many Barrels and hard-hit balls. With the Mets, he has been giving up more home runs than ever, and with a power bat that has been hitting balls out during a slump, Olson should be in a good position to hit a homer tonight.

Even if he does not hit one against Carrasco, the Mets’ bullpen has given up the fourth-most home runs on the season.

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J.D. Martinez (+320, FanDuel)

I wouldn’t necessarily call this the resurgence of J.D. Martinez‘s career, but he has been mashing the ball this season. Sure, he is striking out at an alarming rate and is not getting on base as often, but he enters tonight’s game with career highs in HardHit% (54.8%) and Barrel% (18.5%).

Martinez has also been elite at hitting for power against righties as he has a wRC+ of 168 and 12 of his 14 home runs this season against right-handed pitching. His previous best season against righties was in 2018, when we saw the best version of Martinez with the Red Sox. He has been just as impactful against righties this year as in 2018, and he has a better ISO (.389), SLG (.695), and his HardHit% is over 10% higher this season.

Tonight, he is going up against a Reds pitching staff ranked 10th in HR/9 and fourth in team ERA (4.96). Cincinnati will send out Luke Weaver to get the start, and although his xERA points towards positive regression tonight, Weaver is giving up a lot of barrels and hard contact.

He ranks in the 15th percentile in Barrel%, 22nd percentile in HardHit%, and for his career, he has lived near the bottom of the league in max exit velocity, ranking in the 28th percentile this season. Martinez has hit five home runs in his last seven games, and with a favorable matchup, he is worth a play again tonight.

Gabriel Arias is worth a play in our MLB home run props despite being a +900 long shot.
Cleveland Guardians’ Gabriel Arias is worth a play in our MLB home run props despite being a +900 long shot. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Gabriel Arias (+900, FanDuel)

This is a bit of a prayer, but FanDuel Sportsbook offers incredible odds on Gabriel Arias to hit one out tonight. If you look at his stats, he has not been all that great, as he is slashing .214/.308/.379 with a wRC+ of 93.

However, Arias has been swinging the bat very well as of late and is making it tougher to leave him out of the Guardians’ lineup. Cleveland has always had trust in Arias, as he even started a playoff game at first base last year despite never having a start there before in the majors. He responded with two hits, including a big double. This year, despite not having a sexy slash line, Arias has a 43.1% HardHit% and ranks in the 60th percentile in max exit velocity.

Trying to find playing time for Arias has been challenging, but Tito Francona has made it a point to get him in the lineup more, which has worked wonders for Arias. Since May, Arias has hit three home runs and has generated a 130 wRC+, which is among the best on the team.

Tonight, Arias will get a favorable matchup with James Paxton, who ranks towards the bottom of the league in Barrel rate, HardHit%, xSLG, and average exit velocity. Paxton has also posted career highs in HR/9 (1.89) and launch angle.

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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