We are back with another round of home run prop predictions for tonight’s loaded MLB slate. There are 15 games on the schedule, giving us plenty of batters to pick from for our three best MLB home run prop bets for Wednesday, June 7.
Our MLB home runs props have continued to be profitable, as a $100 bettor from last night’s home run predictions would be up $120. Still, we can do better than that, and our MLB home run props for tonight all have terrific value, thanks to our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook. Tonight’s home run calls feature three players we have not bet on yet this season, including a young superstar playing in only his second career game.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/07/2023)
Christian Walker (+360, FanDuel)
Although Christian Walker‘s on-base numbers are a little down this year, he still hits the ball hard, especially against lefties. Facing southpaws, Walker has a .283/.371/.679 slash with an OPS of 1.050 and an ISO of .396. Against right-handed pitching, Walker becomes extremely average, with a 91 wRC+ and a wOBA of .309, but he has hit half of his 12 home runs off right-handed pitching.
While lefties often pitch around him because he can make them pay, tonight Walker goes up against Patrick Corbin and a Washington Nationals bullpen that has the second-most home runs allowed in the league and the fewest strikeouts.
Corbin is having a bounce-back season. The problem is that a bounce-back season for Corbin looks like a 4.92 ERA and only slightly cutting down on hard contact. He has been one of the worst southpaws in baseball for a few seasons now, and tonight, he faces a surprise Diamondbacks team that can hit for a lot of power, especially Walker.
While Corbin has cut his HR/9 to 1.46 and is not giving up as many barrels, his xERA of 6.11 points towards regression, and a 5.59 K/9 is pretty awful for a starting pitcher. In fact, Crobin’s K/9 is the third-lowest in all of baseball.
Walker has been swinging a hot bat but has hit only one home run in his last 16 games. With his power numbers against lefties, he should be in a good spot to knock one out tonight, and you can get an attractive price at FanDuel Sportsbook.
LaMonte Wade Jr. (+400, FanDuel)
The fan-favorite in the Bay is having a terrific year at the plate. Not only has he been hitting the ball as hard as ever, but he has been very disciplined at the dish, with an 18.1% walk rate. On the season, LaMonte Wade Jr. has a slash of .285/.429/.480 with an OPS of .909 and a wOBA of .401.
He has never been a traditional power guy but has always hit the ball decently hard. Everything has just clicked for Wade this year, as he ranks in the top 3% of the league in wOBA and 95th percentile in xwOBA.
Playing in Colorado tonight, with the wind blowing out and a pitcher, Connor Seabold, who has been getting shelled this year, Wade is in a good position to hit one out. Seabold has done a good job as of late limiting hard contact but still has an HR/9 of 1.51, and he ranks towards the bottom of the league in average exit velocity, xSLG, fastball velocity, K%, and Whiff%.
It is hard to ignore just how good Wade has been this year, and he is due to hit a home run. If you were to bet on any player to hit a home run, if the game is taking place at Coors Field, you have an excellent chance, especially when the wind is blowing out.
Elly De La Cruz (+420, FanDuel)
You can tell from watching his Major League debut last night: Elly De La Cruz will be a problem in this league. The top prospect in baseball picked up a double and two walks in five plate appearances. With only five ABs on the season, he has two hard hits, and tonight he faces Noah Syndergaard, who has just lost all ability to be a quality starting pitcher.
Entering tonight, Syndergaard has a 6.54 ERA and a career-high 1.72 HR/9. While he has limited hard contact this year, he is not striking guys out and isn’t getting guys to chase. When we say he limits hard contact, Syndergaard still has given up 15 barrels on the year and allowed five home runs in his last four starts, which is slightly better than last year.
The weather can play a significant factor with home run props, especially since we are betting on a rookie playing in his second game ever to hit a homer. Luckily, the wind is blowing out to right-center, which gives left-handed hitters an added boost if they can barrel one up.
His first hit in the show was a double that registered 112 mph off the bat, so if De La Cruz can get a hold of one of Syndergaard’s fastballs, which pretty much everyone has this year, look for him to hit his first career home run tonight. It also helps that the Dodgers bullpen has been very shaky this season, allowing the third-most home runs on the season and ranking 25th in bullpen ERA.
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