Another day of baseball is upon us, with a loaded 15-game slate on the diamond. This gives bettors plenty of opportunities to get a bet on tonight’s action, including one of the most exciting bets in baseball, a home run prop bet. With so many games, finding a winner can be challenging, but we have poured through the data and found the best MLB home run props for Friday, June 10.
For the first time this week, our MLB home run props went 0-fer, but that will not stop us from finding the people a winner. For tonight’s home runs prop bets, we go back to a familiar name, who just so happens to be one of the best hitters in baseball history and a youngster who is proving to be a future star.
More baseball betting: Odds to win 2023 World Series | MLB game betting lines
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from BetMGM for the games we have a home run prop on. Before placing your wagers, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your bet.
At the time of writing (early Friday), we have given the best odds for each home run prop, but the home run odds will change throughout the day. This is why making sure you get the best odds by scanning each sportsbook is very important.
| Game Time | Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat (9/23) @ 6:40pm ET | PIT Pirates | +3.5 -110 | +425 | u11.5 -115 |
| CIN Reds | -3.5 -120 | -667 | o11.5 -110 | |
| Sat (9/23) @ 8:40pm ET | STL Cardinals | +1.5 -135 | +150 | u8.5 -115 |
| SD Padres | -1.5 +110 | -185 | o8.5 -105 | |
| Sat (9/23) @ 9:10pm ET | SF Giants | +1.5 -110 | +180 | u8.5 -115 |
| LA Dodgers | -1.5 -110 | -227 | o8.5 -105 | |
| Sun (9/24) @ 1:05pm ET | NY Mets | +1.5 -141 | +150 | o9 +100 |
| PHI Phillies | -1.5 +115 | -185 | u9 -120 |
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/09/2023)
Bryce Harper (+310, FanDuel)
Since returning from Tommy John surgery in the offseason, Bryce Harper has continued to be one of baseball’s best hitters. While the power numbers have not entirely caught up yet, Harper enters tonight’s game with a slash of .296/.390/.452 with a 127 wRC+ and a wOBA of .364.
He has not hit a home run since May 25 against the Braves and only has three on the year in 30 games played. However, he still ranks in the top 10% of the league in max exit velocity, xSLG, and xwOBA. Again, he is still getting warmed up after a significant injury, but Harper is still swinging a good bat and hitting the ball hard, with a 40.5% hard-hit rate and a 10.7% Barrel%.
Tonight, he goes up against Michael Grove and the Los Angeles Dodgers, which is a favorable matchup for a left-handed power hitter. On the season, Grove has been tattooed, giving up four home runs in 21 IP, and he carries an 8.14 ERA and a FIP of 4.90. While his xERA of 4.19 and xFIP of 4.31 point toward significant positive regression, that is not saying much.
Grove does not strike guys out or have swing-and-miss stuff, and he has been dreadful against lefties this season. Left-handed hitters carry a slash of .385/.467/.692 with a wOBA of 4.90. He has done a much better job at limiting hard contact against lefties but still ranks in the bottom half in average exit velocity, xSLG, and xwOBA.
Harper has been due to hit one out for quite some time, and if he doesn’t get one off Grove, he can feast on a Dodgers bullpen that has given up the fourth-most home runs in baseball.
Last night, we had Kyle Schwarber on our home run props card, and he failed to hit one out. Tonight would also be an excellent night to back Schwarber (+215 FanDuel), but our official pick for this game is Harper will break his home run drought.
Spencer Steer (+650, DraftKings)
There is some tremendous value on Spencer Steer to hit a home run tonight at DraftKings Sportsbook. Steer, one of the Reds’ young and exciting players, has sprinted out to a hot start this season with eight home runs and 32 RBI in 59 games.
He also enters tonight with a slash of .291/.371/.491 with an OPS+ of 126 and a wRC+ of 124. The numbers indicate that he has benefited from some luck, but Steer also has improved his HardHit% by 6%, and he has very good discipline at the plate. His K% ranks in the 67th percentile in the league, and he also ranks in the top 15% in whiff rate.
Although he has yet to hit one out in June, he is still swinging a hot bat, with a .316 BA and a .921 OPS, and he has a favorable matchup tonight in Jordan Montgomery. Against left-handed pitching, Steer has hit three home runs and carries a 125 wRC+. It also helps that Montgomery has struggled this season, especially against right-handed hitters.
Montgomery allows righties to slash .270/.329/.482 with a wOBA of .349 and a hard-hit rate of 37.8%. He has given up a home run in five of his last six starts, and during that period, he has a 5.23 ERA and has allowed 21 runs in just 31.0 IP.
The wind is blowing in tonight at Busch Stadium, but Steer has been mashing the ball this season, and Montgomery has been giving up more hard contact and barrels than ever before.
Best MLB Sports Betting Bonuses
Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
Here are the best sportsbook bonuses from our favorite sports betting platforms.
📱Sportsbook ⭐️Why We Like It 💰Promotion 🎯 Promo Code 🇺🇸 States With Legal App
📱Caesars Sportsbook ⭐️ Best for deposit match 💰Up to $1,000 First Bet on Caesars 🎯 Click to claim with code TODAY1000 🇺🇸 AZ, CO, IN, IA, IL, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA & WV
📱BetMGM Sportsbook ⭐️ Best for new bettors 💰Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets 🎯 Click to claim with code TODAY 🇺🇸 AZ, CO, DC, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MS, NJ, OH, NV, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV & WY - Note: Offer not available in DC, MS, NV or NY
📱BetRivers ⭐️ Best for easy deposit bonus 💰Second Chance Bet Credit up to $500 ($100 in AZ, IA, NY, OH, & WV; $250 in CO & NJ) 🎯 Click to claim with code TODAYRIV 🇺🇸 AZ, CO, IL, IN, IA, LA, MD, MI, OH, NJ, NY, PA, VA & WV
📱FanDuel Sportsbook ⭐️ Best overall app (iOS & Android) 💰Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets 🎯 Click to Claim 🇺🇸 AZ, CO, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV & WY
📱Bet365 ⭐️ Best welcome offer 💰Bet $1, Get $365 in Bonus Bets 🎯 Click to claim 🇺🇸 CO, IA, KY, NJ, OH & VA
📱PointsBet Best for advanced bettors 💰Get up to $1,000 in Second Chance Bets. 🎯 Click to claim CO, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, VA & WV
📱DraftKings Sportsbook ⭐️ Best for ongoing promotions 💰Claim up to $1,400 in Bonus Offers 🎯 Click to Claim 🇺🇸 AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NH, NJ, OH, PA, VA, WV & WY
About the Author
