It is a light day on the diamond tonight, with only eight games on the schedule. Although fewer games equal fewer opportunities to find a winner, we have done the hard part for you and have come up with the three best MLB home run prop bets for Monday, June 12.
Our last two home run prop predictions have not produced a winner unless you count mentioning Kyle Schwarber has good value on a Bryce Harper home run call. Still, we are eager to get back in the win column tonight, and with our home runs props featuring two of the game’s best power hitters, we may do just that.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
At the time of writing (Monday afternoon), we have given the best odds for each home run prop, but the home run odds will change throughout the day. This is why it is so important to check out the home run odds from each sportsbook.
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/12/2023)
Jorge Soler (+285, FanDuel)
With our home run props slowing down as of late, we will turn back to ol’ reliable and take Jorge Soler to hit a home run tonight. He hit two home runs yesterday in a win over the White Sox, which broke a 10-game homer-less streak.
In those 10 games, Soler struggled, batting only .188 with an SLG of .219. However, he still ranks in the top 5% of the league in xSLG, xwOBA, max exit velocity, and Barrel%. Tonight, he will go up against Bryce Miller, who has been strong for the Mariners in his first season in the majors.
He enters tonight with a 4.46 ERA but also has an xERA of 4.00, pointing towards regression. Miller has also done a nice job limiting hard hits in his young career. Still, he also ranks in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity, xSLG, Barrel%, xBA, and his strikeout numbers are not overly impressive. He also gives up a whopping 90% contact rate on pitches in the zone, and he is only getting guys to swing outside the zone 36.8% of the time.
Soler has been making more contact with pitches in the zone this season. Although he has gone quiet over the last 10 games, he is still hitting the ball hard, and last night could be the start of yet another multi-game home run streak.
Shohei Ohtani (+330, FanDuel)
There is nothing more exciting than a power-hitting bat playing in a dome. That is true for multiple players in this game, but Shohei Ohtani sticks out in this matchup. He is enjoying his best offensive season, as Ohtani enters with a slash of .287/.359/.571 with a wOBA of .392 and a wRC+ of 152.
Ohtani is also tied for fourth in the league lead in home runs, and although he is not hitting the ball quite as hard this season, he still ranks in the top 10% of the league in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, xSLG, xwOBA, and Barrel%.
He has also been screamin’ hot in June, slashing .381/.435/.738 with an OPS of 1.173 and three home runs. On paper, he has a tough matchup with Dane Dunning getting the start for the Rangers, but he has been due for some regression, and Ohtani is the exact type of player that can kickstart that process.
Dunning has done an excellent job limiting barrelled-up balls, but he is getting killed on pitches in the zone and ranks towards the bottom half of the league in HardHit%, average exit velocity, K%, and chase rate. Ohtani has been a much-improved hitter this year, and with the way he is swinging the bat, he should hit one out tonight, especially in a domed ballpark.
Paul DeJong (+800, DraftKings)
We will take a swing here with a guy who was once a great power bat. Paul DeJong has not been a home run threat since 2019 when he hit 30, but this season, we are starting to see some of that power return to his bat.
DeJong has eight home runs on the season, with a .209 ISO and a 104 wRC+. He is also hitting the ball harder than he did in 2019 and is swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone while making more contact on strikes. Even though he is enjoying a mini resurgence of power this year, he is still not a reliable threat to hit one out on any given night, which explains the +800 value DraftKings is offering.
However, he has a favorable matchup tonight against the San Francisco Giants and tonight’s starter, Logan Webb. Entering tonight, Webb has an HR/9 of 1.07, which is more than double his output from the last two seasons, and he has been giving up a ton of hard contact and barrels this year.
Webb ranks in the league’s bottom half in HardHit%, Barrel%, and average exit velocity. He has struggled in his last two outings, with a 5.11 ERA and two home runs given up in 12.1 IP. DeJong has not hit a home run since May 22, and with the way he is hitting the ball this season, he is due for a big fly tonight, and thanks to DraftKings, you can get incredible odds on DeJong to hit one out.
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