We are back with another full slate of MLB action, and that means it is time to give out our best home run props of the night. With 15 games on tonight’s schedule, there are plenty of opportunities for bettors. We have done the hard work and offer our three best MLB home run prop bets for Tuesday, June 13.
Congratulations on your newfound wealth if you followed our picks from last night. With Shohei Ohtani and Paul DeJong going deep, a $100 bettor would be up $1,030 from yesterday’s best bets. We cannot promise the same results, but we have some valuable home run props for tonight, including one of the best young power bats in the game.
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Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from BetMGM for the games we have a home run prop on. Keep in mind that home run prop odds will change throughout the day. We list the best odds for each player to hit a home run tonight, at the time of writing on Tuesday morning.
Before placing your wagers, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your bet.
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/13/2023)
Nolan Arenado (+550, DraftKings)
The Cardinals were so close to pulling themselves out of the basement of the NL Central. After a horrible start to the season, St. Louis finally found a grove around mid-May. However, the Cards have lost eight of their last 10 games and are 8.5 games back of the Pirates.
Luckily, we do not care if the Cardinals win or not. All we care about is if Nolan Arendao hits a home run, and based on the way he is swinging the bat lately, he is due. In June, Arenado is slashing an incredible .378/.439/.811 with an OPS of 1.250 and four home runs in just 37 ABs.
While he is striking out at an alarming rate, he is still hitting the ball hard, and he has mashed right-handed pitching this season, with nine of his 13 home runs coming against righties. Tonight, he faces Alex Cobb, who enters with a 3.02 ERA, but his xERA and xFIP point towards regression.
With how he is swinging the bat, especially against right-handed pitching, Arendao is well worth a play here.
Gunnar Henderson (+450, FanDuel)
One of Baltimore’s top youngsters is showing that he already belongs at the big-league level. Entering tonight, Gunnar Henderson has nine home runs, a wOBA of .350, and a wRC+ of 125. While he strikes out at a high rate, he is only 22 years old, and the things he is doing with the bat already are damn impressive.
He also has a high walk rate, ranking in the 93rd percentile, and when he gets a hold of one, they go a long way. Henderson hit a 462-foot home run to right field a few days ago, the longest home run ever to land on Eutaw Street.
Henderson ranks in the top 20% of the league in average exit velocity, HardHit%, and Barrel%. He has hit a home run in his last two games, and in seven games played in June, Henderson has a slash of .458/.480/1.000, with four home runs and an OPS of 1.480.
Tonight, he has a tough matchup against Chris Bassitt, but the righty is due for some regression and is giving up more hard contact than ever. Bassitt enters tonight with an 8.4% barrel rate, the highest of his career, and he has given up six home runs in his last four starts. He also has an HR/9 of 1.32, and against left-handed bats, Bassitt has given up nine home runs and a wOBA of .378 this season.
If Henderson cannot hit one out against Bassitt, he has a Toronto bullpen that has given up the fifth-most home runs this season to play with.
Josh Naylor (+560, FanDuel)
After a slow start to the season, Josh Naylor has been swinging a hot bat for a Guardians lineup that is slowly but surely starting to wake up. Over his last 15 games, Naylor is slashing .436/.476/.618 with an OPS of 1.094.
He has one only home run in that period, but he also has 16 RBI and has struck out only six times. Naylor has always hit the ball hard, but this year, he is putting up career highs in Barrel% (11%) and HardHit% (45.9%). What is even more impressive for Naylor is that he carries an xBA of .302 and an xSLG of .523, showing that he is smoking the ball and has dealt with some bad luck on hard-hit balls.
With the way he is swinging, the fact that he has dealt with bad luck proves that Naylor might be one of the better hitters in baseball right now. He has also dropped his strikeout rate to 15.6%, and he ranks in the top 20% of the league in max exit velocity, xwOBA, and K%. In a 14-inning marathon against the Astros last week, Naylor almost left the yard twice to win the game on hard-hit balls but came up inches short on both of them, although he did tie the game in the ninth with Cleveland down to its last strike.
Naylor is due for a bomb, and why not do it against the team that traded you? He gets to go up against Joe Musgrove tonight, who does a good job at limiting hard contact but also has a 1.31 HR/9 and is giving up a ton of contact in the zone.
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