We have officially entered that time of year when baseball takes center stage, and that is especially true today with a loaded 16-game slate. That is a lot of games to watch and wager on, which can be intimidating for bettors. Luckily, we have poured through the data and come up with the best MLB home run prop bets for Wednesday, June 14.
Our home run props predictions spit out yet another winner last night, thanks to a Gunnar Henderson grand slam early in the Orioles’ 11-6 win over the Blue Jays. Our other two picks (Nolan Arenado, Josh Naylor) did not leave the yard, but each tallied a couple of hits.
We have only two home run prop bets for Wednesday, but both have tremendous value, including a player who oddsmakers have not shown the proper respect for early in his career.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games we have a home run prop on tonight.
Before placing your wagers, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your bet.
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/14/2023)
Keep in mind that home run prop odds change throughout the day. We list the best odds for each player to hit a home run tonight at the time of writing on Wednesday morning.
Nolan Jones (+560, FanDuel)
Nolan Jones has been on fire since being called up to Colorado a few weeks ago. In 17 games played with the Rockies, Jones has a slash of .345/.406/.638 with a wOBA of .438 and a wRC+ of 164. He also has four home runs, and each one has been an absolute bomb.
Although he has not played much at the MLB level, he immediately showed he could hang in the major leagues. After getting called up to Cleveland in 2022, he made an immediate impact with his bat, but there was no true path to constant playing time with the Guardians, and he was shipped off to a place where he could flourish.
In his short stint with the Guardians, Jones had a 49.1% hard-hit rate and a Barrel% of 14.5%. While he is not hitting the ball quite as hard, he has increased his Barrel-rate by 5% and ranks in the top 7% of the league in max exit velocity.
Against right-handed pitching, Jones has three of his four home runs and has a 60.7% hard-hit rate. He goes up against Garret Whitlock and a putrid Boston Red Sox pitching staff tonight. Whitlock has put together a couple of decent starts this season, including his last one against the Yankees, but his HR/9 is up to 1.69, he has a z-contact% of 88.8%, and he ranks in the bottom half of the league in xSLG, Barrel%, and xwOBA.
Jones hit a home run at Fenway Park when he was with Cleveland, and with his resurgence in a new situation, he can easily hit one out to the shortest right field in baseball. It also helps that the wind will be blowing out tonight.
Mookie Betts (+360, FanDuel)
In his fourth season with the Dodgers, Mookie Betts continues to be one of the best pound-for-pound players in baseball, and this year, he is making an even stronger case. He enters with a .269/.365/.534 slash, and a 145 wRC+ with a .385 wOBA.
He has also increased his BB% to 13.3% and is taking fewer swings outside the zone this year. Most important, however, are Betts’ power numbers this year. He enters tonight with the best power numbers of his Dodgers career, with a Barrel% of 11.8%, HardHit% of 46.3%, and an ISO of .271. Betts also is second behind Max Muncy in team home runs, which puts him in the top 10 in all of baseball.
In June, Betts has slashed .317/.404/.634 with an OPS of 1.038 and four home runs. Tonight, he faces Mike Clevinger and a White Sox bullpen that has the fifth-highest ERA and has given up the seventh-most home runs. For Clevinger, he has done a much better job this season at limiting hard contact, but what made him so dominant in Cleveland was his swing-and-miss stuff.
This year, Clevinger ranks in the bottom 30% of the league in Whiff% and K%, and he is giving up more contact in the zone than ever. Clevinger had a couple of solid starts in May but still has issues giving up the long ball, and that should continue again tonight against Betts and a Dodgers lineup that leads the league in home runs.
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