Another week has arrived, and although we have a light slate on the diamond tonight, there are still plenty of MLB bets to be made. Today, we will look at the best MLB home run prop bets for Monday, June 19.
Our home run prop bets from last week turned a nice profit, as a $100 bettor would be up $1,470 from our home run predictions. With a small schedule tonight, we only have two home run prop bets today, but both carry exceptional value, including one sportsbook offering almost 10/1 odds for one of our home run picks.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games we have a home run prop bet on tonight.
Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/19/2023)
Before placing your bets, remember that the odds for our home run predictions tend to change throughout the day. This means that the odds we have for our home run props may differ from when you place a wager on them.
We list the best odds for each player to hit a home run tonight at the time of writing on Monday morning. Shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks available is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 8-25 (+11.6u)
Bo Bichette (+925, Bet365)
Bet365 Sportsbook offers insane odds on Bo Bichette hitting a home run tonight. This season, I have implemented a system for my home run props, which has proven profitable to this point. Today, Bichette did not fit my system to make an official home run prediction, but you absolutely have to take a shot at this price.
On the season, Bichette ranks in the top 10% of the league in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. He also has a 10.5% barrel rate, which is an upgrade from last season. Although his HardHit% is down, he still ranks in the 75th percentile.
He has not hit a home run since June 7, and his bat has gone cold since then. However, he will face a guy making his fourth career start in Bryan Hoeing and a Marlins bullpen that has given up 32 home runs.
Hoeing has actually been fairly decent this season, with a 3.12 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 26.0 IP. He also has only given up two home runs this season and has done an excellent job limiting hard contact. The problem is he is due for some significant regression, as he ranks in the bottom half of the league in xSLG, xwOBA, and xBA.
It also helps that Bichette is making a ton of contact in the zone, and Hoeing is in the bottom 30% of the league in K% and chase rate. Bichette also has punished fastballs this season, and Hoeing’s best pitch is his sinker, which Bichette has a +2 run value and a HardHit% of 49.2%.
Masataka Yoshida (+630, FanDuel)
Masataka Yoshida, one of the betting favorites to win AL Rookie of the Year, has continued his excellent play from the plate in June. While he has not hit a home run this month, he enters tonight’s game with a slash of .281/.349/.404 with a .753 OPS.
However, Yoshida has started hitting the ball harder over the last few days. He has a barrel in each of his previous two games and a 40% HardHit% this month. Those numbers are down from his terrific May, but not only has Yoshida been solid the past few days, but he has a favorable matchup with Pablo Lopez on the mound.
In his first season with the Twins, Lopez has upped his strikeout rate and is due for some major positive regression, but he has given up 11 home runs and ranks in the bottom half of the league in HardHit% and Barrel%.
Against left-handed hitting, Lopez is allowing a slash of .265/.336/.382, and Yoshida has been very good on the road this season, hitting three home runs and owning a 121 wRC+. He is not a power hitter, but Yoshida ranks in the top 20% of the league in xwOBA, xBA, and max exit velocity.
Yoshida has not hit a home run since May 31, but he has been swinging a hot bat as of late, and he has an advantage against Lopez and one of the more friendly ballparks for left-handed hitters.
Best MLB Sports Betting Bonuses
Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
Here are the best sportsbook bonuses from our favorite sports betting platforms.
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