Welcome back to another loaded night of baseball. We have a full 15-game slate on the diamond tonight, giving bettors plenty of chances to wager on the action, and we have identified the three best MLB home run prop bets for Tuesday, June 20.
Thursday’s Action: Click Here for Thursday’s MLB Home Run Prop Best Bets
We started the week 0-2, as we did not cash a single ticket last night. However, our home run predictions have still been very profitable this season. A $100 bettor would be up $960 tailing our home run props. Last night, we hunted for value, and although both players had decent nights at the plate, neither hit one out.
For tonight’s action, we are going back to the player who has appeared the most on our daily home run props, as well as two of the best hitters in the game.
More MLB betting: Odds to win 2023 World Series | MLB game betting lines
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games we have a home run prop bet on tonight.
Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
| Game Time | Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed (9/27) @ 6:10pm ET | CIN Reds | +2.5 +172 | +560 | o7.5 +210 |
| CLE Guardians | -2.5 -227 | -909 | u7.5 -278 | |
| Wed (9/27) @ 6:40pm ET | PIT Pirates | +1.5 -2000 | +3500 | u13.5 -357 |
| PHI Phillies | -1.5 +870 | 0 | o13.5 +260 | |
| Thu (9/28) @ 4:10pm ET | STL Cardinals | +1.5 -132 | +166 | u8 -110 |
| MIL Brewers | -1.5 +110 | -196 | o8 -110 |
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/20/2023)
Before placing your bets, remember that the odds for our home run predictions tend to change throughout the day. This means the odds we have for our home run props may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks available is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 8-27 (+9.6u)
Jose Ramirez (+420, FanDuel)
The weather is starting to warm up in Cleveland, and so are the bats. This is especially true for Jose Ramirez, who has been on fire entering the series opener against the A’s. Since hitting three home runs against the Red Sox on June 8, Ramirez is slashing .400/.444/.875 with an OPS of 1.319 and five home runs.
Although his wRC+ is the lowest it has been since 2019, when he played most of the season with an injured hand (as he does almost every year), Ramirez has a career-best 8.6% K%. He also is not hitting the ball as well as in previous seasons, but he ranks in the top 20% of the league in xBA and xSLG, and the ball is coming off his bat faster than his incredible 2022 campaign.
Ramirez has a favorable matchup Tuesday night, as the Oakland A’s have given up the most home runs in the league, and the bullpen is tied with the Mets for most home runs allowed. Tonight’s starter, Luis Medina, flashes a lot of potential, especially with his fastball, but he has been getting hammered in his rookie season. He enters tonight with a whopping 2.29 HR/9, and he ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in HardHit%, xwOBA, xSLG, and xBA.
It is hot in Cleveland today, which gives a surging offense an extra boost, especially against the worst pitching staff in baseball. Other Guardians that are swinging a hot bat include Josh Naylor (+480 to hit an HR tonight), Josh Bell (+520), and Andres Gimenez (+700), but Ramirez has been the best of the bunch, and we are officially placing a bet on him to hit a home run Tuesday night.
Nolan Arenado (+350, FanDuel)
The Cardinals continue to be one of the biggest disappointments in baseball, but Nolan Arenado has been on fire in June and has a favorable matchup tonight. This month, Arenado slashes .318/.368/.683 with a 1.050 OPS and six home runs in 63 ABs.
Arenado has been striking out more than ever this season, and he is not hitting the ball as hard as usual. However, he has a 182 wRC+ in June, and his HardHit% is up 16% this month. He also has an 11.5% Barrel%, thanks to two barrels registered against the Mets a few days ago, both of which ended up as home runs.
Tonight, he goes up against a Washington Nationals pitching staff that has given up a ton of hard contact, especially MacKenzie Gore, who will get the start for the Nats. Gore was one of the top prospects the Nationals received from the Juan Soto trade, and he has flashed his elite potential but still is getting hammered.
He has given up 11 home runs this season and ranks towards the bottom of the league in HardHit%, barrel%, average exit velocity, xSLG, xwOBA, and xBA. He does have a great fastball that ranks in the top half of the league in spin and velocity, but that pitch also has a 46.4% HardHit%.
Arenado has also crushed left-handed pitching in his career, and even though he is having a tough year, he still has a 142 wRC+ and a .313 ISO against Southpaws.
Kyle Schwarber (+275, BetMGM)
Kyle Schwarber has made the most appearances on our daily MLB home run props and is making one more tonight. The Phillies are screamin’ hot right now, with a 13-4 record in June, and a big part of that has come from Schwarber’s bat.
While he is still hitting only .187 on the season, in June, Schwarber is slashing .254/.375/.627 with an OPS of 1.002, and he has seven home runs in 67 ABs. Overall, the Phillies’ lineup has dominated June, ranking in the top 10 in wRC+, home runs, RBI, runs, and SLG. They are going up against the team ranked first in most of those categories this month, but we only care about what they do with the bat.
Tonight they face Spencer Strider, who is due for some significant positive regression, but still ranks in the bottom half of the league in HardHit% and Barrel%. Strider is having a rough sophomore slump, and over his last three starts, he has a 9.00 ERA, 7.48 FIP, and he has given up six home runs in just 15.0 IP. Somehow, he is 2-0 in those three starts.
Schwarber has been hot, Strider has struggled with hard contact, and Citizens Bank Park has the fifth-best HR factor for left-handed hitters this season, according to Park Factor by statcast.
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