Another day of baseball has arrived, and there are a lot of exciting matchups on the schedule today. While the evening slate is a little light, there are still plenty of late-night games to place a bet on. Here, we have found our two best MLB home run prop bets for Wednesday, June 21.
Thursday’s Action: Click Here for Thursday’s MLB Home Run Prop Best Bets
It has been a tough start for our home run predictions this week, as we are 0-5. However, we are going back to a player we bet on last night, arguably the best power hitter in baseball who has a favorable matchup again tonight.
A $100 bettor would still be up $660 from our daily home run props, and we have two juicy plays for Wednesday.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games we have a home run prop bet on tonight.
Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/21/2023)
Before placing your bets, remember that the odds for our home run predictions tend to change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run props may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 8-30 (+6.6u)
Matt Olson (+310, FanDuel)
Matt Olson hit a monster shot last night and is in a good position to hit another one tonight. Coming off a tremendous first season with the Braves, Olson has been even better in 2023, especially as a power hitter.
He already has 21 home runs in just 73 games played, and he is barreling up the baseball better than anyone. His 19.6% Barrel% is the best in baseball, and he ranks in the top 10% of the league in max exit velocity, average exit velocity, HardHit%, and xSLG.
While Olson is whiffing more than ever this season, he still has a high contact rate on pitches in the zone, and he is due for a bump in power, with his xSLG sitting at .523, and he carries an xwOBA of .371.
The Phillies will start Aaron Nola, who is due for some major positive regression, but also has a career-high 1.43 HR/9, and he ranks in the bottom half of the league in Barrel%. Nola is also giving up more contact on strikes and is getting fewer swings out of the zone. He is also getting less movement on his pitches, specifically his changeup, which is a pitch Olson has had a lot of success against in his career.
Olson has not been hitting the ball as hard this month but still has four home runs in 69 ABs. With a starter that has been giving up more hard contact than ever, and a Phillies bullpen that has struggled with the long ball, Olson is in a prime position to hit another home run tonight.
Jose Ramirez (+440, FanDuel)
We had Jose Ramirez in our home run props last night, and while he did not hit one out, he still had a lovely night at the plate with two hits, including a game-tying double. He is still among the hottest hitters in baseball right now, as he has a .614 SLG this and 158 wRC+ this month.
As we mentioned last night, Ramirez has lowered his strikeout rate by a significant rate, and he ranks in the top 20% of the league in xBA and xSLG. This means we can expect his upward progression to continue. Not only is he taking more balls, but he has more swings on pitches in the zone, and he has a 98.8% contact rate on strikes in June, the highest in baseball.
Once again, he has the pleasure of going up against an Oakland pitching staff that just simply is not that great. While they were able to hold the Guardians to two runs through nine innings before losing in extras, Ramirez still crushed the ball last night, recording three swings with an exit velocity of 104 mph or higher off the bat.
The Athletics send out Paul Blackburn to get the start tonight, and while he is having a career year for Oakland, he has been hit hard over his last few starts. Ramirez has also crushed right-handed pitching this season, with a 150 wRC+ and a slash of .326/.395/.535 with a .930 OPS. He also loves hitting at Progressive Field, with a .254 ISO and a 135 wRC+.
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