MLB Home Run Props: Three Best Bets For Thursday’s Slate

Tonight is a slow night in baseball, with only three games on the evening slate. However, we have still poured through the data and come up with the three best MLB home run prop bets for Thursday, June 22. 

For Friday: Ohtani Among Best MLB HR Prop Bets for June 23

After a hot few weeks, our home run predictions have gone cold. Last night, Jose Ramirez hit a ball off the wall, and the Braves game was postponed, so Ramirez was our only play last night, and he came so close. You will go through extreme ups and downs when betting on MLB home run props. The most important thing to remember is always to trust the data.

A $100 bettor would still be up $560 from our daily home run props, and we are back with three more plays for tonight’s action. 

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Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games we have a home run prop bet on tonight. 

Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Sun (5/19) @ 1:36pm ET SEA Mariners +4.5 -154 +4600 u8.5 +106
BAL Orioles -4.5 +118 -10000 o8.5 -139
Sun (5/19) @ 1:40pm ET NY Mets -2.5 -106 -476 u10.5 -106
MIA Marlins +2.5 -122 +330 o10.5 -122
Sun (5/19) @ 2:10pm ET OAK Athletics +6.5 +134 +240 u11.5 -120
KC Royals -6.5 -175 -345 o11.5 -108
Mon (5/20) @ 6:40pm ET MIL Brewers -1.5 +116 -135 u8.5 -115
MIA Marlins +1.5 -141 +116 o8.5 -105
Mon (5/20) @ 7:05pm ET SEA Mariners +1.5 -192 +112 u7.5 +100
NY Yankees -1.5 +158 -132 o7.5 -122
Mon (5/20) @ 7:40pm ET DET Tigers -1.5 +150 +100 o9 +100
KC Royals +1.5 -182 -118 u9 -122

MLB Home Run Predictions (06/22/2023)

Before placing your bets, remember that odds for home run props tend to change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

MLB HR Props YTD: 8-31 (+5.6u)

Bobby Witt Jr. (+470, FanDuel)

The Royals are one of, if not the biggest mess, in baseball right now, and it does not help that one of the top players in the organization, Bobby Witt Jr., has struggled this season. This is just his second season in the big leagues, but Witt is slashing only .246/.288/.431 with a wRC+ of 93.

However, he has still showcased his incredible power, as he enters tonight’s game vs. the Rays with a Barrel% of 11.9%, which ranks in the 79th percentile. He also ranks in the top 10% of the league in max exit velocity, xBA, and xSLG.

That upward trend has shown this month, as Witt is slashing .304/.360/.435 with an OPS of .795 and two home runs. He has a tough matchup tonight with the current betting favorite to win the AL Cy Young, Shane McClanahan (+230). While he has been dominant this season for Tampa Bay, he has given up a home run in his last four starts, and McClanahan ranks in the bottom half of the league in HardHit%, average exit velocity, and Barrel%.

He has limited right-handed hitters to just a .266 OBP and a .357 SLG this season, but Witt has crushed southpaws this season. In 77 ABs against left-handed pitching, Witt has six home runs, a 140 wRC+, and a HardHit% of 43.1%.

The Rays have a tough pitching staff. However, the bullpen has given up the eighth-most home runs this season, and Witt will start this game with an advantage with a lefty on the mound.

Jorge Soler (+470, FanDuel)

When you are in a rut with your MLB picks, the best thing to do is go back to what worked in the past. Jorge Soler has treated us very well for our home run props, and he should be in an excellent spot to hit another one tonight. 

Soler has not been hitting the ball quite as hard in June, but he has been much better at the plate as a whole, slashing .268/.417/.518 with a .935 OPS. Still, he has four home runs and a Barrel% of 13% this month. 

He ranks in the top 5% of the league in xwOBA, xSLG, max exit velocity, and Barrel%, and while he has not hit the ball as well in Miami this season, his 114 wRC+ against right-handers is his best since 2019. 

The Pirates send out Mitch Keller, who is having a career year, but still has struggled giving up hard contact. He ranks in the bottom 30% of the league in Barrel%, and while his K/9 is at 10.57 this season, he ranks towards the bottom in Chase Rate and Whiff%. 

Simply put, Soler has been one of the best hitters in baseball all season, and although the power numbers have dipped in June, he is still hitting the ball extremely hard and is due for a homer after only hitting one in his last six games. 

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Julio Rodriguez (+550, Bet365)

Julio Rodriguez is going through a massive sophomore slump but is still crushing the ball. He enters tonight’s Mariners vs. Yankees game with 12 home runs, and Rodriguez ranks in the top half of the league in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel%.

Mariners' Julio Rodriguez is among our best MLB home run prop bets for Thursday, June 22, 2023.
Seattle Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

While Rodriguez has not been great in June, he still has a 40% HardHit% this month, and he has the advantage against a home run pitcher in a home run ballpark. With Yankee Stadium ranking sixth in home run factor for right-handed hitters by Statcast, tonight is a night Rodriguez can get rolling, especially with Domingo German on the mound. 

Outside of a few surprisingly great starts, German has been getting smoked this season, allowing a home run in each of his last four starts. He also has an xERA of 4.55, which points towards even more regression, and he ranks toward the bottom of the league in HardHit%, xwOBA, Barrel%, xSLG, xBA, K%, and fastball velocity. 

German also has a 52.2% HardHit% on his fastball this season, and despite his struggles at the plate, Rodriguez has crushed fastballs this year with a 57.7% HardHit%. 

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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