We have a loaded slate of action on the diamond tonight, and that means it is time to place some bets on MLB, including any time home run predictions. We have poured through the data to come up with the three best MLB home run prop bets for Friday, June 23.
Our home run prop bets are officially ice-cold. Sometimes, when things are going wrong, you need to go back to what has worked all season, and that is what we are doing tonight. Our home run prop for Friday features three familiar faces who all happen to be among the best power hitters in baseball.
We went 0-3 last night in our home run predictions, but a $100 bettor is still up $260 on our picks, and we plan on getting back in the win column tonight.
More MLB betting: Odds to win 2023 World Series | MLB game betting lines
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games we have a home run prop bet on tonight.
Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
| Game Time | Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat (9/23) @ 1:05pm ET | ATL Braves | -1.5 -147 | -250 | o9 -104 |
| WAS Nationals | +1.5 +122 | +205 | u9 -118 | |
| Sun (9/24) @ 1:05pm ET | NY Mets | +1.5 -128 | +152 | o9 -110 |
| PHI Phillies | -1.5 +106 | -179 | u9 -110 | |
| Sun (9/24) @ 2:10pm ET | LA Angels | +1.5 -110 | +205 | o8 -114 |
| MIN Twins | -1.5 -110 | -250 | u8 -106 |
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/22/2023)
Before placing your bets, remember that odds for home run props tend to change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 8-34 (+2.6u)
Shohei Ohtani (+320, Caesars Sportsbook)
At this point, the only way Shohei Ohtani does not his second AL MVP is if he gets injured. Not only is he one of the best pitchers in the AL, but he leads the league in SLG (.616), OPS (.993), OPS+ (168), RBI (58), and HRs (24).
Ohtani has also been scorching hot at the plate this month, slashing .361/.466/.847 with an OPS of 1.313 and nine home runs in just 72 ABs. He also ranks in the top 10% of the league in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xBA, Barrel%, and HardHit%. His xSLG ranks in the top 1% of the league, meaning he is due for an uptick in power, which is an incredible thought given how good he has been at the plate this season.
While he is whiffing at more pitches this season, he still has a high z-contact%, and Ohtani is disciplined at the plate, as he is swinging at only 29.5% of pitches out of the zone, and he ranks in the 83rd percentile in BB%.
Playing in Colorado, where he can really tattoo the ball, Ohtani is in an excellent spot to hit one out tonight.
Bryce Harper (+350, FanDuel)
There is not a player in baseball more due to hit a home run than Bryce Harper. Since returning from Tommy John surgery in the offseason, Harper is slashing .296/.390/.415 with a .350 wOBA and a 119 wRC+.
He is still hitting the ball very hard, but he has only three home runs in 42 games played and has not hit one in his last 22 starts. Harper ranks in the top 20% of the league in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xBA, Barrel%, and xSLG, proving that he is due to see an increase in power.
Even with his power numbers not translating to the field, his OPS is over .800, and he still ranks in the league’s top half in HardHit%. He has been practically the same with his plate discipline and swing numbers, as he still has a high z-contact%, but he is just not hitting home runs.
Luckily, he has a good matchup against the Mets and Kodai Senga, who has given up a lot of hard contacts this season. He has also given up three home runs in his last three starts, and with the wind blowing out hard in Philadelphia tonight, if Harper can barrel one up, he should be able to hit one out.
Matt Olson (+200, FanDuel)
Once again, we are going back to Matt Olson for our home run prop bets. Olson has hit a home run in three of his last six games and has been hitting the ball as hard as ever this season, ranking in the 100th percentile in max exit velocity.
He also ranks in the top 10% of the league in HardHit%, xwOBA, xSLG, and Barrel%, and Olson has a .272 ISO, the highest since his incredible 2019 campaign. Tonight, he is in Cincinnati, which has the best home run factor in the majors, according to Statcast. Also, the wind is blowing out heavy, with BallParkPal.com giving Great American Ball Park a +30% boost on home runs tonight.
The Reds are the hottest team in baseball, and the pitching staff has been much better than expected. However, tonight’s starter, Luke Weaver, has an HR/9 of 2.05, and he ranks in the bottom 30% of the league in HardHit%, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, K%, Whiff%, chase rate, fastball velocity, and curve spin.
That is a lot of important stats to be ranked near the bottom of the league in.
With the wind advantage and how Olson is swinging the bat, he should be able to hit one tonight. A +200 price for a home run prop is not very attractive, but it will still net you a nice chunk of change. FanDuel also has Olson’s odds of hitting 2+ home runs tonight at +1600 if you are feeling adventurous.
Best MLB Sports Betting Bonuses
Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
Here are the best sportsbook bonuses from our favorite sports betting platforms.
📱Sportsbook ⭐️Why We Like It 💰Promotion 🎯 Promo Code 🇺🇸 States With Legal App
📱Caesars Sportsbook ⭐️ Best for deposit match 💰Up to $1,000 First Bet on Caesars 🎯 Click to claim with code TODAY1000 🇺🇸 AZ, CO, IN, IA, IL, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA & WV
📱BetMGM Sportsbook ⭐️ Best for new bettors 💰Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets 🎯 Click to claim with code TODAY 🇺🇸 AZ, CO, DC, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MS, NJ, OH, NV, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV & WY - Note: Offer not available in DC, MS, NV or NY
📱BetRivers ⭐️ Best for easy deposit bonus 💰Second Chance Bet Credit up to $500 ($100 in AZ, IA, NY, OH, & WV; $250 in CO & NJ) 🎯 Click to claim with code TODAYRIV 🇺🇸 AZ, CO, IL, IN, IA, LA, MD, MI, OH, NJ, NY, PA, VA & WV
📱FanDuel Sportsbook ⭐️ Best overall app (iOS & Android) 💰Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets 🎯 Click to Claim 🇺🇸 AZ, CO, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV & WY
📱Bet365 ⭐️ Best welcome offer 💰Bet $1, Get $365 in Bonus Bets 🎯 Click to claim 🇺🇸 CO, IA, KY, NJ, OH & VA
📱PointsBet Best for advanced bettors 💰Get up to $1,000 in Second Chance Bets. 🎯 Click to claim CO, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, VA & WV
📱DraftKings Sportsbook ⭐️ Best for ongoing promotions 💰Claim up to $1,400 in Bonus Offers 🎯 Click to Claim 🇺🇸 AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NH, NJ, OH, PA, VA, WV & WY
MLB Player Prop Bets for Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna Jr. on Friday, Sept. 22
Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 21
Top MLB NRFI Bets for Wednesday, Sept. 20
About the Author
