Another week is upon us, which means we have a fresh slate of baseball games to watch tonight. While there are only six games on the schedule, there are plenty of bets to be made, especially anytime home run bets. We have poured through the data and come up with the two best MLB home run prop bets for Monday, June 26.
Tuesday’s action: Long Shot Headlines Tuesday’s MLB HR Prop Picks
Our home run props went cold last week, but we finished with a monster day on Friday, going up 4.2 units by picking a pair of winners. On the season, a $100 bettor would be up $680 by following our home run predictions. Moving on to Monday, our picks tonight carry some great value.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop bets of the night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the Brewers vs. Mets game, which has both our home run prop picks for tonight.
Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/26/2023)
Before placing your bets, remember that odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 10-35 (+6.8u)
Pete Alonso (+330, Bet365)
It has been a brutal season for the Mets, but Pete Alonso continues to be one of the best power hitters in the game. Entering tonight, Alonso is ranked second in the league in home runs, and while he has struggled this month, he has four home runs in just 47 ABs.
Alonso has the best ISO of his career (.311), and despite a slash of just .226/.318/.537 with a .197 BABIP, he has a 135 wRC+ and is ranked ninth in fWAR for a first baseman. While he is not hitting the ball quite as hard as last season, Alonso ranks in the top 10% of the league in max exit velocity, xwOBA, xSLG, and Barrel%. Alonso also ranks in the top half of the league in xBA, showing he is due for a significant uptick in production.
While his K% is back over 20%, he is not chasing as many pitches out of the zone, and he is crushing the ball, even when he is in a slump. With the wind blowing out hard towards right-center in New York, tonight is a perfect night for Alonso to hit one out, especially with the pitching matchup.
The Brewers send out Colin Rea, whose struggles have been prevalent all season. He is giving up more hard contact and barrels than ever in his career, and Rea ranks in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity, xBA, and xSLG. Rea is giving up a ton of hard contact on his fastball, a pitch that Alonso has a 50% HardHit% this season, and the Brewers bullpen has given up the eighth-most home runs.
Christian Yelich (+500, FanDuel)
We are sticking with Brewers vs. Mets for our second home run pick, and we are taking a guy who was once one of the best hitters in the game. Entering tonight, Christian Yelich has been solid at the plate, already surpassing his fWAR from last season.
Yelich is not hitting the ball as well as he did in his 2019 MVP season, but he carries a 10.4% Barrel%, and his xBA of .287 and xSLG of .476, both of which rank in the top 20% of the league, are very promising. While his strikeout rate is still an issue, Yelich is hitting the ball hard and taking more swings on pitches in the zone.
In June, Yelich has really been locked in, slashing .313/.406/.506 with a wOBA of .392 and a wRC+ of 148. He may only have two home runs this month, but he has been smoking the ball, with a 15.3% Barrel% and a 61% HardHit%.
Tonight, he faces Justin Verlander, which in any other season, would scare me off from taking Yelich to hit a home run. However, Verlander has struggled all season, giving up a ton of hard contact. On the season, he ranks in the 17th percentile in HardHit% and in the bottom half of the league in xBA, xSLG, K%, Whiff%, and average exit velocity.
The Mets bullpen has also struggled with hard contact this season, as they are tied with Kansas City for the highest Barrel% (9.0%) and have given up the second most home runs this year.
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