It is Friday, and that means we have a tremendous slate of baseball tonight. With 15 games on the schedule, bettors have plenty of opportunity to wager on the action, including home run props. Here, we give out our three best MLB home run prop bets for Friday, June 16.
Our home run props cashed another ticket last night, thanks to a Manny Machado first-inning home run. So far this week, a $100 bettor would be up $1,300 following our home run props, and we look to end the week with another round of winners.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games we have a home run prop bet on tonight.
Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best destination for your wagers. Does it have the best bonus offer? Who has the best odds? Which betting site has the fastest payout?
|Wed (9/27) @ 7:20pm ET||Cubs||-1.5 -106||-222||u9.5 -104|
|Braves||+1.5 -120||+170||o9.5 -122|
|Wed (9/27) @ 9:38pm ET||Rangers||-1.5 +104||-156||u8.5 -102|
|Angels||+1.5 -125||+132||o8.5 -120|
|Wed (9/27) @ 9:40pm ET||Astros||-1.5 +140||-120||o7.5 -122|
|Mariners||+1.5 -169||+102||u7.5 +100|
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/16/2023)
Before placing your bets, remember that the odds for our home run predictions tend to change throughout the day. This means that the odds we have for our home run props may differ from when you place a wager on them.
We list the best odds for each player to hit a home run tonight at the time of writing on Friday morning. Shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks available is essential to maximizing your profits.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+265, FanDuel)
Ronald Acuna Jr. has been a monster the whole season, especially in June. So far this month, Acuna is slashing .357/.393/.661 with a 1.054 OPS, and he has four home runs and 14 RBI in just 56 ABs.
What has been most impressive about Acuna’s season is his strikeout rate. Prior to this season, Acuna had a K% that sat around 25%, which isn’t catastrophically terrible but is certainly not great. Through 69 games played this year, Acuna’s K% is down to 12.7%, and he ranks in the top 25% of the league in chase rate and Whiff%.
Obviously, walks don’t cash home run prop tickets, but this proves he has refined his game at the plate and is making more contact on pitches in the zone. He also has been smoking the ball this season, with a 55% HardHit% and a Barrel% of 16.3%. Both rank in the top 7% of the league, and Acuna is in the top 1% in xSLG, xBA, and xwOBA.
Tonight, Acuna goes up against Dinelson Lamet and a Rockies bullpen that ranks 22nd in ERA. In only 21.1 IP, Lamet has a whopping 10.38 ERA and has given up three home runs. He is due for some positive regression, but that is because he has been terrible to start the season, and this is not the lineup you want to face to try and kick-start that process.
Teoscar Hernandez (+370, FanDuel)
In his first year with the Mariners, Teoscar Hernandez has taken a noticeable step back in production at the plate. However, he still has 11 home runs and ranks in the top 20% of the league in max exit velocity, HardHit%, Barrel%, and xSLG.
While he is making more contact in the zone, his swing rate on pitches out of the strike zone is up 5%, and he ranks towards the bottom of the league in chase rate, K%, and Whiff%. Luckily, he is still strong, and when he gets ahold of one, they go a long way.
Despite his struggles, Hernandez is still a positive in the Mariners’ lineup, with a 102 wRC+, and he has started heating up in June. In 11 games played this month, Hernandez is slashing .250/.422/.600 with an OPS of 1.022, and he has two home runs.
He will face a White Sox pitching staff that gives up a ton of home runs, especially tonight’s starter, Michael Kopech, who has given up 15 home runs this season. Kopech also ranks in the league’s bottom half in HardHit%, xSLG, xwOBA, and Barrel%.
Mike Trout (+310, FanDuel)
One of the best players in the history of baseball has a great matchup tonight against Brady Singer and the Kansas City Royals. Entering tonight, Mike Trout‘s power numbers are down this season, but he still slashes .248/.354/.460 with a 124 wRC+.
When we say that Trout’s power numbers are down, we mean he is “only” in the top 9% of the league in HardHit rate, compared to the top 4% last season. Trout is whiffing on more pitches, but he also has made more contact in the zone this season and is taking fewer swings outside of it.
Last night, our lone home run props winner came from fading the opposing pitcher, and we are doing the same tonight with Singer. While Trout has been practically non-existent in June, Singer has an HR/9 of 1.26, and he ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and he ranks in the 15th percentile in Barrel%.
Again, Trout has been awful in June, but he still hits the ball hard, and Singer gives up more hard contact than anyone.
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