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Welcome back for another terrific night of baseball. Tonight’s slate is a little light, with only 10 games on the schedule, but there are plenty of excellent home run bets to make, and we are here to give our three best MLB home run prop bets for Thursday, June 15.

For the first time this week, our daily home run prop picks did not produce a winner last night. However, we have three home run predictions tonight with terrific value, giving bettors more chances at a profitable evening.

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Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games we have a home run prop bet on tonight. 

Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Wed (9/27) @ 7:20pm ET CHI Cubs -1.5 +220 -128 u7.5 +112
ATL Braves +1.5 -294 +100 o7.5 -143
Wed (9/27) @ 8:40pm ET LA Dodgers -1.5 -122 -208 u10.5 -125
COL Rockies +1.5 -104 +160 o10.5 -102
Wed (9/27) @ 9:45pm ET SD Padres -1.5 +158 -102 o8.5 -120
SF Giants +1.5 -192 -116 u8.5 -102

MLB Home Run Predictions (06/15/2023)

Before placing your bets, keep in mind that home run prop odds will change throughout the day. This means that the odds we have for our home run props may differ from when you place a wager on them. 

We list the best odds for each player to hit a home run tonight at the time of writing on Thursday morning. Shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks available to you is essential to maximizing your profits.

Austin Riley (+300, FanDuel)

Although he is having a down year compared to his production from last season, Austin Riley is still a power threat, especially against left-handed pitching.

Riley ranks in the top 2% of the league in max exit velocity, and he still has solid Barrel% and HardHit% numbers. However, he has not hit a home run in his last six games, and during that stretch, he has been practically non-existent in the lineup. Over his last six games, Riley slashes 0.91/.154/.091 with an OPS of .245.

Luckily, he has a favorable matchup tonight against Kyle Freeland and the Colorado Rockies. On the season, Freeland has been solid but is due for some regression. Freeland has cut down on the amount of hard contact he allows, but he is also allowing 5% more contact on pitches in the zone this season, and his SwStr% is down over 2%.

He also ranks in the league’s bottom half in xSLG, Barrel%, xBA, average exit velocity, and xwOBA. His HR/9 is also up to 1.42, and although Riley is in a slump, he has had great success against lefties this year. Against southpaws, Riley is slashing .262/.338/.525, with five home runs in just 61 ABs. 

Freddie Freeman (+500, FanDuel)

Freddie Freeman is having another tremendous season at the plate with the Dodgers, and this year, he has increased his power numbers by a considerable amount. He enters tonight with a .242 ISO, his highest since 2020, and his Barrel% is up to 13.1% on the season.

While his numbers have taken a dip in June, Freeman still has three home runs in 41 ABs, and tonight, he has the elements on his side as the wind will be blowing out hard into right centerfield. He ranks in the top 1% of the league in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, proving that he is due for some positive regression, and although his HardHit% is slightly down this year, Freeman is still barreling up the baseball at an impressive clip.

At his home ballpark this season, Freeman is slashing .339/.418/.532 with a 155 wRC+, and five of his 13 home runs have come at home. Dodgers Stadium also has the second-best HR factor in baseball, according to Park Factor by Statcast, and the wind blowing out gives Freeman a considerable edge to hit a home run.

While Dylan Cease has typically done a good job at limiting home runs in his career, his HR/9 is up to 1.09, and he ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in HardHit%. It also helps that the White Sox bullpen has given up the seventh-most home runs this season.

Manny Machado (+420, FanDuel)

Fresh off a monster contract extension, Manny Machado has not looked like his typical self at the plate this season. His wRC+ sits at 91, and he is not hitting the ball as hard this season, with his HardHit% down over 8%.

Padres' Manny Machado is one of our best MLB HR prop bets for Thursday, June 15, 2023.
San Diego Padres’ Manny Machado (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

However, we are fading Logan Allen and the Cleveland Guardians pitching staff tonight. While Cleveland’s bullpen has been money of late, Allen has been knocked around early in his few career starts, including his last outing against the Astros, where he allowed three runs in the first inning.

Allen has flashed his elite potential in his young career but is due for some significant regression, with his xERA sitting at 4.35, one entire earned run higher than his actual ERA. While batters have not necessarily been smoking his pitches, he ranks in the bottom half of the league in HardHit%, xSLG, and xwOBA.

The Padres have knocked around Cleveland’s starting pitching this series, including Machado, who hit a home run in Wednesday night’s contest. His bat is starting to heat up in June, and we are betting on him to hit another one out tonight.

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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