Happy Friday, and welcome to yet another full slate of baseball. We have a loaded 15-game slate, which means there are plenty of bets to be made, including anytime home run props. Here, we have poured through the data and have come up with the two best MLB home run prop bets for Friday, June 30.
Our MLB home runs prop predictions pulled off another winner last night, thanks to a big performance from J.D. Martinez. While our HR props are not as profitable as they were at the beginning of the season, a $100 bettor would still be up $585 for tailing our picks.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop bets of the night.
More MLB betting: MLB strikeout props for Friday | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet.
Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/30/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 12-43 (+5.8u)
Shohei Ohtani (+330, Bet365)
At this point, do I really need to tell you how good Shohei Ohtani is?
He is in the middle of arguably the greatest season ever, and this month, he has stepped his game up at the plate. In June, Ohtani slashes an unbelievable .392/.484/.931 with a 1.415 OPS with 14 home runs and 28 RBI.
Not only is he swinging a hot bat, but he is smoking the ball, as he is ranked first this month in Barrel% (26%), home runs (14), and runs (28). Not that this helps Ohtani’s home run odds, but he has been lights out on the mound.
Ohtani ranks in the top 10% of the league in xSLG, xBA, xwOBA, average exit velocity, and HardHit%. While his strikeout numbers are higher, he also ranks in the 81st percentile in BB%.
He also has had a lot of success at Angel Stadium, as he has 13 home runs and a .340 ISO in 39 games played. While Ohtani has struggled at home against left-handed pitching, he has a favorable matchup tonight against Tommy Henry. The Diamondbacks’ young southpaw is due for a slight uptick in production, but he still ranks in the bottom half of the league in xSLG, xwOBA, fastball velocity & spin, as well as curveball spin.
Henry’s fastball has been crushed this season despite his ability to limit hard contact, and for his career, Ohtani has been one of the better fastball hitters in the league. Even if Ohtani does not get one off Henry, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen, which has been solid this season, has given up an 8% Barrel% this month.
Spencer Torkelson (+310, FanDuel)
The Detroit Tigers are in a weird spot as a team. Not only are the acquisitions they have made over the last few seasons failing to work out, but their top draft picks are not performing as well in the majors as they would have hoped. That includes 2020 first-overall pick Spencer Torkelson.
This month, Torkelson has slashed .194/.275/.449 with a .724 OPS and 32 strikeouts in 98 ABs. However, he has seven home runs (including two last night), and when he makes contact, he smokes the ball with an 11.9% Barrel%. Tonight, he will play in the best ballpark for sluggers like himself and go up against a left-handed pitcher who has been crushed this year.
Torkelson has a 134 wRC+ against southpaws and an ISO of .242. His numbers get even better on the road, with a .412 ISO and a slash of .324/.395/.735 with an OPS of 1.130. It also helps that the Rockies starter tonight, Austin Gomber, ranks in the bottom 15% of the league in HardHit%, Barrel%, xSLG, xwOBA, and K%.
Although he is still trying to get comfortable at the plate in the majors, Torkelson has been hammering the ball this month, and he has a very favorable matchup to leave the yard for the third-straight game.
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