There is a full slate of action on the diamond tonight, with many games to wager on. You can place many different types of baseball bets, but we are here to focus on anytime home run picks. We have poured through the data to come up with the three best MLB home run prop bets for Tuesday, June 27.
Thursday’s action: MLB Home Run Prop Picks for June 29
Our picks went 0-2 last night, but we still give out plenty of winners for our daily home run predictions. A $100 bettor would be up $480 tailing our HR props this season, and we are back with three plays for tonight’s action, including a bet with a very attractive price.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop bets of the night.
More MLB betting: MLB strikeout props for Tuesday | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games we have a home run prop bet on.
Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/27/2023)
Keep in mind that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 10-37 (+4.8u)
Mookie Betts (+260, FanDuel)
The Dodgers vs. Rockies matchup will be exciting, considering we are facing perfect conditions for a lot of home runs. The game is in Denver, which lends itself to long balls, and Ballparkpal.com gives Coors Field a 29% home run boost tonight.
With the Dodgers leading baseball in home runs, you can practically have your pick of the litter when it comes to Los Angeles’ lineup. However, we are riding with a Mookie Betts anytime home run bet for tonight. While his HardHit% is slightly down this season, Betts is having one of the best power-hitting seasons of his career.
Betts has an 11.2% Barrel%, the highest since his 2018 MVP season, and he is slashing .272/.344/.506 with a .850 OPS this month. He has always been one of the best hitters in the game, and this season, he ranks in the top half of the league in average exit velocity, xSLG, xBA, xwOBA, HardHit%, and Barrel%.
Not only is he hitting the ball harder than ever in a Dodgers uniform, but he is taking 7% fewer swings on pitches out of the zone, and his O-Contact% is up to 61.9% this month. While he is not barreling up the baseball as often in June, Betts has a 55% HardHit%, and he is going up against a Rockies pitching staff that gives up a ton of home runs and hard contact.
More MLB Betting: AL Cy Young Odds 2023 | 2023 MLB Rookie of the Year Odds |
Anthony Santander (+360, FanDuel)
The Baltimore Orioles continue to be one of the most exciting teams in baseball, and Anthony Santander has played a significant role in that. It would be damn near impossible to replicate the power he displayed during the Covid-shortened 2020 season, but Santander has been smoking the ball this year.
He enters tonight with a 10.8% Barrel%, and his .500 SLG and .835 OPS are the highest since his memorable 2020 campaign. He got off to a slow start this month, but he has three home runs over his last four games, and despite having just a 33.3% HardHit%, he has nine barrels and is making a lot of contact on pitches in the zone.
Camden Yards is one of the most challenging places to hit a home run since the fences back were moved back. However, Santander has crushed the ball at Orioles Park this season. He has a .295/.351/.538 slash with a .889 OPS and a wRC+ of 142 at Camden Yards.
The Cincinnati Reds are one of the more fun teams in baseball, but the pitching staff is terrible, and they send out Andrew Abbott, who has made only four starts in his career. While his ERA of 1.14 looks spectacular, his HR/9 of 1.14, his xERA of 3.39, and his xFIP of 4.83 point towards regression. Abbott also has a 9.8% Barrel%, and against right-handed hitting, he has a 42% HardHit%, and an xFIP of 5.12.
Even if Santander does not hit one out against Abbott, the Reds bullpen has given up 34 home runs this season and has a Barrel% of 7.2%.
Ha-Seong Kim (+825, Bet365)
Bet365 Sportsbook is giving us tremendous odds on Ha-Seong Kim hitting a home run tonight. While Kim is not necessarily a slugger, he is enjoying his best power-hitting season in MLB. He enters tonight with eight home runs in 74 games (11 home runs in 150 games last season), and he has hit three dingers in his last four games.
While he ranks in the bottom 30% of the league in Barrel% and the 4th percentile in HardHit%, he has been crushing the ball lately and has a favorable matchup tonight. Over the last week of play, Kim has an 18.2% Barrel%, slashing .333/.419/.667 with a 1.086 OPS and a 195 wRC+.
Again, he will not overwhelm you with power, but he is swinging a hot bat and faces Rich Hill and a terrible Pirates pitching staff. Entering tonight, Hill has a 1.19 HR/9 and has given up the 10th-highest Barrel% among qualified starting pitchers. Even though Hill has not allowed a home run over his last two starts, he is still getting hit hard, and Kim has had a lot of success this season against left-handed pitching.
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