Welcome back to another full slate of baseball. There are 15 games on Wednesday’s schedule, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to wager on the action, including anytime home run picks. Trying to find a winner can be overwhelming, so we have poured through the data and come up with the three best MLB home run prop bets for Wednesday, June 28.
Tuesday was another tough night for our home run picks, but all we can do is pick ourselves up and try again for tonight’s slate. We have three home run picks for Wednesday, including going back to a player we bet on last night.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop bets of the night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from Caesars Sportsbook for the games on which we have a home run prop bet.
Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Predictions (06/28/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 10-40 (+1.8u)
Marcus Semien (+370, Caesars Sportsbook)
The Texas Rangers have been one of the more exciting teams in baseball. They rank in the top 10 in home runs and have scored the most runs in MLB.
Although he is having a down season in the power department, Marcus Semien continues to be one of the best hitters in the game. He enters tonight with a slash of .283/.343/.461, a wOBA of .346, and a 122 wRC+. Semien is also walking at a higher rate and has significantly reduced his chase and whiff rates. While his Barrel% is down 1.7% this season, his HardHit% is up to 40.2%, which is just shy of his numbers from a monstrous 2021 season.
This home run prediction is more about the matchup than Semien. However, Semein has done a good job keeping the ball off the ground when he makes contact, and he has the pleasure of playing at Globe Life Field, which has the best HR factor this season, according to Statcast.
Tonight, The Rangers go up against Joey Wentz and a Tigers bullpen that has allowed a 7.7% Barrel% and has a collective HR/9 of 1.00. Wentz has given up 12 home runs to right-handed hitters, and he ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in Barrel%, HardHit%, xwOBA, average exit velocity, and xSLG. He also does not have good strikeout numbers, and with how disciplined Semien is at the plate, he can be patient in his approach and hit one out tonight.
Luis Robert Jr. (+375, Caesars Sportsbook)
The White Sox are heading down an unfortunate road for such a talented team. It is becoming clear that this once promising group is not working out, and it might be time to start thinking about tearing it all down. Luckily, they should be able to get good returns on players, especially for Luis Robert Jr., who is having a great season.
Chicago fans have been patiently waiting for this once-top prospect to blossom into a top player, and he has done just that this year. He enters tonight with 22 home runs (fourth in MLB), which is already nine more than his previous career high, and he carries a 140 wRC+.
While his K% is at an alarming 29.7%, he also has a .293 ISO and a 14.8% Barrel%. Robert ranks in the top 12% of the league in max exit velocity, xSLG, and Barrel%, and he has been spanking the ball in June, with a 20.4% Barrel%, .372 ISO, and a slash of .291/.351/.663 with a 1.014 OPS.
His numbers take a slight dip on the road, but he has an advantage in Angel Stadium, where the wind blows hard towards left-center, where Robert hits most of his home runs.
Anthony Santander (+300, DraftKings)
The Reds vs. Orioles matchup is the best of the night, given how young and exciting both lineups are. It also helps that both teams have a lot of power, and Ballparkpal.com is giving this game a 20% boost on home runs tonight, even though Camden Yards is one of the more challenging places to hit dingers.
Last night, we took a chance with Anthony Santander to hit a home run, and as was the theme for my picks last night, it did not go well, but we will take another shot on him tonight. His slow start to the month has hindered his power metrics, but he hit a home run in each of the three games against the Mariners in Baltimore’s last series.
Santander ranks in the league’s top half in Barrel%, HardHit%, and xSLG, and he is making a lot of contact on pitches in the zone. While both teams are exciting to watch, the pitching staffs on each side are not all that great. The Orioles staff has the highest Barrel%, while the Reds are ranked ninth. For Cincinnati, tonight’s starter, Luke Weaver, has an HR/9 of 2.09, and he ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in xSLG, Barrel%, HardHit%, and xwOBA.
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