MLB Home Run Props: Bet J.D. Martinez, Willson Contreras to Go Deep For Thursday, June 29

The 2023 MLB season rolls on with another great day of baseball. The evening slate is a little light, but there are still plenty of attractive matchups for bettors to take advantage of. Here, we have found our two favorite MLB home run prop bets for Thursday, June 29.

We had a winner for the first time this week, with Luis Robert Jr. hitting a home run in the first inning last night to cash a +375 ticket. Although our home run props have cooled off after a hot start to the season, we still are up 3.55 units this season, and our two home run predictions tonight have some great value.

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop bets of the night.

More MLB betting: MLB strikeout props for Thursday | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. 

Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

MLB Home Run Predictions (06/29/2023)

Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

MLB HR Props YTD: 11-42 (+3.55u)

J.D. Martinez (+330, FanDuel)

It has been a terrific season for J.D. Martinez in Los Angeles, as he has 18 home runs and is hitting the ball as hard as ever. He enters tonight with a 17.3% Barrel% and has his highest HardHit% of his career (52.4%).

While he has struggled in June, Martinez still has six home runs, and his Barrel% ranks in the top 15 this month. His xBA and xSLG also point towards an uptick in production, and he can kickstart that process in Colorado against a bad Rockies pitching staff. For his career, Martinez has a slash of .421/.433/.719 with a 1.153 OPS and five home runs at Coors Field, and in this series, he has two home runs and a 1.000 SLG.

The Rockies will send out Chase Anderson to get the start, which is a favorable matchup for Martinez. He ranks in the bottom half of the league in Barrel% and is in the 13th percentile in xSLG. Anderson also has an HR/9 of 2.36, and against right-handed hitting, he is allowing a slash of .275/.333/.484 with five home runs and a 5.05 FIP.

Martinez has also been excellent against righties in his career with a career 125 wRC+, and this season, he carries a .337 ISO in 181 ABs. If he does not hit one out early, the Rockies’ bullpen has given up a lot of hard contact this month.

Willson Contreras (+430, FanDuel)

It is hard to believe just how bad the Cardinals have been this season. With the signing of Willson Contreras in the offseason, many thought this would be the move to bring this super-talented offense together and lead St. Louis back to the World Series.

However, the pitching has been a nightmare, and we have seen some regression from some of the top hitters on the team, including Contreras. He enters tonight with a .214/.302/.370 slash and an 89 wRC+. His ISO is also down to .154, and for the first time in his career, Contreras’ OPS is below .700.

Luckily, he is still hitting the ball hard, with a 10.4% Barrel%, and he has been swinging the bat better this month. On the season, Contreras ranks in the league’s top half in xwOBA, HardHit%, Barrel%, and average exit velo. His xBA and xSLG also rank in the top 40% of the league, which means we are due for some positive results from Contreras.

Houston’s starter for the night, J.P. France, has done a decent job at limiting hard contact, but he still has a 1.52 HR/9 and his xERA of 4.38 points towards some regression. France has also given up three home runs in 26.1 IP this month and has an xFIP of 5.19. The Astros bullpen also helps our cause, as they have the highest Barrel% this month.

Best MLB Sports Betting Bonuses

Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season. 

Here are the best sportsbook bonuses from our favorite sports betting platforms.