MLB Home Run Props: Bet J.D. Martinez, Willson Contreras to Go Deep For Thursday, June 29

GamingToday.com is an independent sports news and information service. GamingToday.com has partnerships with some of the top legal and licensed sportsbook companies in the US. Gaming Today may receive referral compensation from the sportsbook company when you claim a bonus offer or promotion through a link on this site. Although the relationships we have with sportsbook companies may influence the order in which we place companies on the site, all reviews, recommendations, and opinions are wholly our own. They are the recommendations from our authors and contributors who are avid sports fans themselves.

For more information, please read How We Rate Sportsbooks, Privacy Policy, or Contact Us with any concerns you may have.

Gaming Today is licensed and regulated to operate in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MS, NJ, NV, NY, OH, ON, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.

The 2023 MLB season rolls on with another great day of baseball. The evening slate is a little light, but there are still plenty of attractive matchups for bettors to take advantage of. Here, we have found our two favorite MLB home run prop bets for Thursday, June 29.

We had a winner for the first time this week, with Luis Robert Jr. hitting a home run in the first inning last night to cash a +375 ticket. Although our home run props have cooled off after a hot start to the season, we still are up 3.55 units this season, and our two home run predictions tonight have some great value.

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop bets of the night.

More MLB betting: MLB strikeout props for Thursday | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. 

Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Mon (4/15) @ 10:10pm ET WAS Nationals -2.5 -102 -476 u12.5 -132
LA Dodgers +2.5 -128 +330 o12.5 +102
Tue (4/16) @ 9:40pm ET STL Cardinals -1.5 +110 -154 u8 -110
OAK Athletics +1.5 -132 +130 o8 -110

MLB Home Run Predictions (06/29/2023)

J.D. Martinez is featured in our MLB home run props.
Los Angeles Dodgers’ J.D. Martinez is having a terrific season and is featured in today’s MLB home run props. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

MLB HR Props YTD: 11-42 (+3.55u)

J.D. Martinez (+330, FanDuel)

It has been a terrific season for J.D. Martinez in Los Angeles, as he has 18 home runs and is hitting the ball as hard as ever. He enters tonight with a 17.3% Barrel% and has his highest HardHit% of his career (52.4%).

While he has struggled in June, Martinez still has six home runs, and his Barrel% ranks in the top 15 this month. His xBA and xSLG also point towards an uptick in production, and he can kickstart that process in Colorado against a bad Rockies pitching staff. For his career, Martinez has a slash of .421/.433/.719 with a 1.153 OPS and five home runs at Coors Field, and in this series, he has two home runs and a 1.000 SLG.

The Rockies will send out Chase Anderson to get the start, which is a favorable matchup for Martinez. He ranks in the bottom half of the league in Barrel% and is in the 13th percentile in xSLG. Anderson also has an HR/9 of 2.36, and against right-handed hitting, he is allowing a slash of .275/.333/.484 with five home runs and a 5.05 FIP.

Martinez has also been excellent against righties in his career with a career 125 wRC+, and this season, he carries a .337 ISO in 181 ABs. If he does not hit one out early, the Rockies’ bullpen has given up a lot of hard contact this month.

Willson Contreras (+430, FanDuel)

It is hard to believe just how bad the Cardinals have been this season. With the signing of Willson Contreras in the offseason, many thought this would be the move to bring this super-talented offense together and lead St. Louis back to the World Series.

However, the pitching has been a nightmare, and we have seen some regression from some of the top hitters on the team, including Contreras. He enters tonight with a .214/.302/.370 slash and an 89 wRC+. His ISO is also down to .154, and for the first time in his career, Contreras’ OPS is below .700.

Luckily, he is still hitting the ball hard, with a 10.4% Barrel%, and he has been swinging the bat better this month. On the season, Contreras ranks in the league’s top half in xwOBA, HardHit%, Barrel%, and average exit velo. His xBA and xSLG also rank in the top 40% of the league, which means we are due for some positive results from Contreras.

Houston’s starter for the night, J.P. France, has done a decent job at limiting hard contact, but he still has a 1.52 HR/9 and his xERA of 4.38 points towards some regression. France has also given up three home runs in 26.1 IP this month and has an xFIP of 5.19. The Astros bullpen also helps our cause, as they have the highest Barrel% this month.

Best MLB Sports Betting Bonuses

Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season. 

Here are the best sportsbook bonuses from our favorite sports betting platforms.

📱Sportsbook 💰Welcome Offer🎯 Promo Code⭐️Why We Like It🇺🇸 Availability
📱BetMGM Sportsbook💰Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Does Not Win (except NC, NY, NV, PR)🎯 Click to claim with code TODAY⭐️ Best overall app🇺🇸 AZ, CO, DC, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MS, NJ, NC, OH, NV, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV & WY - Note: Offer not available in NV or NY
📱Caesars Sportsbook💰 $1,000 First Bet on Caesars (Iowa, Maine, and Maryland only:
Bet $1, Double Your Winnings on Your Next 10 Wagers with Caesars with code TODAYDYW)
🎯 Click to claim with code TODAY1000⭐️ Best rewards program🇺🇸 AZ, CO, IN, IL, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NY, NC, OH, PA, TN, VA & WV
📱FanDuel Sportsbook💰 Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose🎯 Click to Claim⭐️ Best for new bettors🇺🇸 AZ, CO, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, NC, OH, PA, TN, VT, VA, WV & WY
📱BetRivers Sportsbook💰 Second Chance Bet up to $500 ($100 in AZ, OH, & WV; $250 in CO & NJ)🎯 Click to claim with code TODAYRIV⭐️ Best sports-based profit boosts🇺🇸 AZ, CO, IL, IN, IA, LA, MD, MI, OH, NJ, NY, PA, VA & WV
📱bet365 Sportsbook💰 First Bet Safety Net up to $1,000 OR Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets🎯 Click to claim with code GTODAYVA⭐️ Best variety of betting markets🇺🇸 AZ, CO, IN, IA, KY, LA, NJ, NC, OH & VA
📱DraftKings Sportsbook💰 Claim up to $1,250 in Bonuses + Daily NBA Playoffs No Sweat SGP 🎯 Click to Claim⭐️ Best ongoing promotions🇺🇸 AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, NC, OH, PA, TN, VT, VA, WV & WY

About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

Get connected with us on Social Media