Welcome back to another great day of baseball. Games will be going on all day today and tomorrow, giving bettors plenty of chances to place some MLB bets, including anytime home run props. To make things easier for you, we have poured through the data and have come up with the two best MLB home run props bets for Monday, July 3.
Our MLB home run predictions had a hot end to the week, cashing three tickets in three days. We are still trying to recover from a brutal stretch, but a $100 bettor would be up $910 from our picks, and we are here with two more home run prop bets with excellent value tonight.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop bets of the night.
More MLB betting: | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet.
Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Predictions (07/03/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 13-43 (+9.1u)
Anthony Rizzo (+425, DraftKings)
It was a brutal June for Anthony Rizzo, and with the Yankees in desperate need of success at the plate, his slump could not come at a worse time. However, Rizzo is hitting the ball very well lately, as he enters tonight with a slash of .303/.489/.394 with a .883 OPS over his last 11 games.
While he does not have a home run in that stretch, Rizzo still hits the ball hard, with a 44% HardHit%. Despite his struggles, Rizzo is still ranked in the league’s top half in Barrel%, xSLG, average exit velocity, and xwOBA.
He will go up against one of Baltimore’s young and promising arms in Tyler Wells tonight. Through 15 starts, Wells carries a 9.23 K/9 and an ERA of 3.21. He also does an excellent job at limiting walks, and he has some great stuff on his pitches, as his fastball spin ranks in the 89th percentile and his curve spin in the 70th percentile.
While he should draw a good amount of swings and misses tonight, Wells has trouble giving up barrels, as he ranks in the 11th percentile in Barrel%. Wells has an HR/9 of 1.85 and has given five home runs over his last three starts.
Rizzo is having a down season but still has a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. He has a favorable matchup tonight with a pitcher that gives up a lot of barrels, and the wind is blowing out hard to right field.
Juan Soto (+390, FanDuel)
The San Diego Padres are in a tailspin, but Juan Soto has continued to be one of the best players at the plate. Since May, Soto has been slashing .316/.450/.563 with a .430 wOBA and a 177 wRC+. Soto also has been hammering the ball during this stretch, with a 12% Barrel% and a 60% HardHit%.
He also has 10 home runs in his last 55 games and has a 91.8% contact rate in the zone. His extremely high walk rate will always be concerning, especially with a guy who does not strike out many batters. However, the Angels starter, Jaime Barria, ranks in the 36th percentile in Barrel% and in the bottom half of the league in xSLG, xBA, and xwOBA.
Soto has had a much better season against right-handed pitching, with a .270 ISO and an OPS of 1.020. Barria is allowing a .783 OPS against lefties, and over his last three starts, he has allowed five home runs and is allowing a slash of .356/.420/.778 with a 1.198 OPS.
While Soto is due for some slight regression, he has been swinging a scorching-hot bat for around two months, and he has a good matchup against a guy who has given up a lot of barrels and will limit the chances of drawing a walk.
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