Welcome back for another full night of baseball. We have a loaded 15-game slate tonight, giving bettors plenty of chances to place some MLB wagers, including anytime home run bets. We have poured through the data and come up with the two best MLB home run prop bets for Wednesday, July 5.
Thursday’s action: MLB HR Prop Picks for July 6, 2023
Last time we spoke, our home run prop bets went 0-2, but we are still profitable on the season. A $100 bettor would be up $710 following our home run prediction, and our two plays tonight both carry great value and feature two of the best hitters in baseball.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop bets of Wednesday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (07/05/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 13-45 (+7.1u)
Jose Ramirez (+450, FanDuel)
Jose Ramirez is one of the best hitters in baseball, and in June, he really hit the ball hard. In 25 games played, Ramirez slashed .330/.400/.630 with a .425 wOBA and a 176 wRC+. He also added seven home runs and had a 10% Barrel%.
While Ramirez has gotten off to a slow start in July, he is not striking out, as his K% sits around 9.6%, and he is making more contact on strikes while laying off pitches out of the zone. On the season, Ramirez ranks in the top 20% of the league in xwOBA, xBA, Whiff%, K%, and xSLG.
He has hit the baseball particularly well this season at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Entering tonight, Ramirez is slashing .303/.364/.548 with a .912 OPS and a .245 ISO at home, and he has also hit seven home runs at this ballpark.
Going up against the Atlanta Braves will undoubtedly be a challenge, especially with a dynamite Atlanta bullpen, but tonight’s starter could give Ramirez and the Guardians an edge. The Braves send out Mike Soroka, who enters with a 6.89 ERA and a 7.44 FIP. While his xERA and xFIP point toward a significant uptick in production, he still has a whopping 2.87 HR/9 and has given up a Barrel% of 11.5% this year.
At one time, Soroka was thought to be one of the best young arms in baseball, and at age 25, there is still time. However, his hard-hit numbers have climbed at an alarming rate, and he has been even worse on the road, with an 8.78 FIP.
Ramirez has always stated that he feels more comfortable from the right-handed side of the batter’s box. But he has been mashing right-handed pitching this season, and with a warm night and the wind blowing out in Cleveland, he should be in an excellent spot to hit one out tonight.
Corey Seager (+420, FanDuel)
It truly is amazing to look at Corey Seager‘s stats this season. He enters tonight with a slash of .347/.413/.597, wOBA of .424, and 176 wRC+. He also has accumulated 2.8 fWAR and missed almost a month of action. If Shohei Ohtani did not exist, there is a good chance that Seager would win his first MVP.
In June, Seager hit five home runs with an OPS of 1.083, and he had an 18.6% Barrel% and a hard-hit rate of 53.5%. On the season, he ranks in the top 1% of the league in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Seager is in the 97th percentile in HardHit% and Barrel%.
He also does not strike out a lot and ranks in the 72nd percentile in BB%. Simply put, there may not be a more well-balanced hitter in baseball right now than Seager. He does have a tough matchup with Brayan Bello, one of Boston’s young stars, but Seager mashes right-handed pitching with a 1.064 OPS, and Seager can take advantage of a left-handed hitters’ ballpark, especially with it being a warm night in Boston.
While he has not hit one out since June 17, he still has been demolishing the ball since then, and he has a favorable matchup to hit a home run tonight.
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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
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