MLB Home Run Props: Mookie Betts, Young Stars Headline Thursday’s Picks

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Another day of baseball is upon us, which means it is time to take a look at the best anytime home run bets. There are 13 games for bettors to pick from today, and we have poured through the data to come up with the three best MLB home run prop bets for Thursday, July 6. 

Friday’s Action: MLB Home Run Prop Picks for July 7, 2023 | Friday’s MLB Strikeout Props

It was another tough night for our home run props last night, but both players we picked had solid nights at the plate. When betting on home run props, knowing you will lose often is important. A quick look at our home run props record may look bad, but a $100 bettor would be up $510 by tailing our HR picks this season. 

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop bets for Thursday night.

More MLB betting: Thursday’s MLB strikeout props | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your home run prop bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Fri (4/19) @ 7:40pm ET BAL Orioles -1.5 +120 -135 o9 -105
KC Royals +1.5 -145 +116 u9 -115
Fri (4/19) @ 10:10pm ET NY Mets +1.5 -127 +168 u8.5 -118
LA Dodgers -1.5 +105 -200 o8.5 -104
Fri (4/19) @ 10:15pm ET ARI Diamondbacks +1.5 -192 +112 o7.5 -114
SF Giants -1.5 +158 -132 u7.5 -106

MLB Home Run Picks (07/06/2023)

Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

MLB HR Props YTD: 13-47 (+5.1u)

Adley Rutschman (+550, DraftKings)

Adley Rutschman has been swinging a hot bat lately and is due to hit a home run. Over his last five games, Rutschman is batting .348, and he has six hits in 15 ABs against the Yankees during this series.

While he is not hitting the ball as hard this season, the Orioles catcher has 11 home runs in 82 games and a favorable matchup against Luis Severino in Yankee Stadium. On the season, Severino has a career-worst 2.25 HR/9 and a barrel rate of 11.9%, which ranks him in the 8th percentile in Barrel%. Severino also ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in xSLG, xBA, xwOBA, and Whiff%.

Left-handed hitters have fared very well against Severino this season (Rutschman is a switch hitter), and at home, he has been getting crushed. He did pitch six shutout innings in his last start at Yankee Stadium, but his xERA of 6.94 points towards regression. Severino also has not been getting batters to swing out of the zone, but when they do, they have a 78.2% contact rate, 18.2% higher than last season, and he has given up more hard contact on pitches in the strike zone this season.

Rutschamn has struggled on the road, but if his last three games are an indicator of what is to come for the Home Run Derby participant, he should be in an excellent spot to hit one out to that short right field tonight.

Mookie Betts (+370, DraftKings)

As we all could have guessed, the Dodgers are back in the NL West race, trailing the Diamondbacks by only 1.5 games. A big reason for that has been the offense, which has carried a pitching staff that has performed fine but is limping to the All-Star break.

Dodgers' Mookie Betts makes our list of best MLB home run props picks for July, 6, 2023.
Los Angeles Dodgers’ Mookie Betts (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

One of those bats is Mookie Betts, who is enjoying one of the best power seasons of his career. He enters tonight’s game with a .283 ISO, 23 home runs, and a 12.2% Barrel%. While his numbers are not quite as elite as they were in his 2018 MVP season, he has been crushing the ball, which was especially true last month.

In June, Betts slashed .309/.398/.638 with a .430 wOBA and a .330 ISO. He also added nine home runs and had a 12.8% Barrel%, and those numbers have held up so far in July. While Pittsburgh’s starter, Johan Oviedo, has done a good job at limiting home runs, he ranks in the bottom half of the league in HardHit%, xSLG, xBA, xwOBA, and K%.

With how well Betts has been swinging the bat over the last month, he is well worth a shot to hit a home run tonight.

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Corbin Carroll (+420, FanDuel)

The runaway in NL Rookie of the Year odds crushed the ball in June, with eight home runs, .340 ISO, and a 9.9% Barrel%. He did strike out more than usual, but he is still swinging a hot bat and making contact on pitches in the zone.

On the season, Corbin Carroll ranks in the league’s top half in HardHit%, Barrel%, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, and average exit velocity. While he has hit the ball better on the road, he is still hitting for power at Chase Field, with 10 home runs and a .267 ISO.

Tonight, Carroll goes up against Carlos Carrasco, who has been getting crushed this season. He enters tonight with a 5.94 ERA, 6.46 FIP, and a 2.04 HR/9. Carrasco has also been giving up some of the hardest contact of his career, and he is ranked in the bottom 20% of the league in HardHit%, Barrel%, xSLG, xBA, average exit velocity, and xwOBA.

Carrasco has also struggled against left-handed hitting and has a tough matchup against a powerful-lefty lineup that is headlined by Carroll. Even if he does not hit one out against Carrasco, the Mets bullpen has given up the second-most home runs this season. 

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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