Happy Friday, and welcome to another terrific night of baseball. There is a loaded 15-game slate with great matchups, including a potential World Series preview on Apple TV+. With plenty of games to bet on, we have done the hard work and come up with the two best MLB home run prop bets for Friday, July 7.
After starting the week hot, our props have crashed back down to earth. As we always say, betting on home run props is a wild rollercoaster ride. You will be profitable as long as you consistently pull out one to two winners a week, but be prepared for some ups and downs. When you are in a rut, the only thing you can do is go back to what has worked before, and that is precisely what we are doing for tonight’s home run predictions.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Friday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (07/07/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 13-50 (+2.1u)
Shohei Ohtani (+280, FanDuel)
We have taken Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run a few times for our daily home run props, and he has treated us well. He enters tonight’s game with a league-leading 31 home runs, and over his last 10 games, he has six home runs and an OPS of 1.311.
Ohtani has been hitting the ball harder than ever, as he enters ranked fourth in Barrel% among qualified hitters, and his xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, average exit velocity, and HardHit% all rank inside the top 10% of the league. He also has the highest ISO of his career (.353), and while he still strikes out at a high clip, he also ranks in the 87th percentile in BB%.
Despite his Z-contact% going down this season and ranking in the bottom 20% of the league in Whiff%, when Ohtani makes contact, he is hitting the ball as hard as anyone in baseball, and he has a favorable matchup tonight. Although Dodgers starter Tony Gonslin is ranked in the top half of the league in Barrel% and HardHit%, his xERA and xFIP point towards some significant regression.
Gonsolin also ranks in the bottom half of the league in xSLG, xBA, xwOBA, Whiff%, fastball spin, and velocity, and his slider has not been as effective this season. While his fastball has a -11 run value, it is still getting hit hard, and Ohtani has crushed fastballs throughout his career.
More Dingers: Home Run Derby Odds & Predictions
Matt Olson (+320, FanDuel)
Since June, Matt Olson has been on fire, as he is slashing .289/.368/.653 with a 1.021 OPS and 12 home runs in 30 games. Not only is he already creeping up on his home run totals from last season in just half the games, but he has been crushing the ball more than ever.
He enters tonight with a 20.3% Barrel%, the highest in the league, and he is ranked in the top five in HardHit%, max exit velocity, and ISO. While he has a tough matchup in Tampa Bay for a possible World Series preview, he faces Tyler Glasnow, who has struggled since returning from Tommy John surgery.
While Glasnow is still striking guys out at a high clip, he also has a 1.50 HR/9, and he is ranked in the bottom 20% of the league in xSLG, average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, and Glasnow is in the 1st percentile in Barrel%. He has had some good stuff in his last few starts, but he still has given up three home runs and a 16.1% Barrel%. Tampa’s bullpen has also had problems keeping the ball in the park, as they have given up the sixth-most home runs this season.
Olson is one of the best power bats in baseball, and he enters this game swinging a hot bat. Like Ohtani, we have bet Olson home run props a lot this season, and we are going back to him tonight with a favorable matchup against Glasnow and a Tampa bullpen that has struggled with the longball.
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