The All-Star break is finally past us, which means we get to enjoy an excellent slate of baseball tonight. With a full 15-game slate, bettors will have plenty of opportunities to place an MLB wager, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our best MLB home run prop bets for Friday, July 14.
Our home run props had a brutal end of the first half, but we still are profitable for the season, and we have two great plays tonight featuring two of the best players of the last decade. Luckily, we had a few days to reset our minds and get back in the lab to find the best home run props of the evening.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Friday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (07/14/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 13-52 (+1.1u)
Manny Machado (+370, FanDuel)
It has not been the best season at the plate for Manny Machado, but heading into the All-Star break, he was swinging a hot bat. Over his last eight games, Machado is slashing .406/.472/.1000 with an OPS of 1.472 and six home runs, including two multi-home run games.
While this may just be a mini power surge, a closer look at his numbers indicates how well he has been hitting the ball in July. Machado carries a .594 ISO and a 21.4% Barrel%, and he is making contact on 88.6% of strikes while laying off pitches out of the zone.
He may be having his worst season at the plate, especially in the power department, but he still ranks in the league’s top half in HardHit%, Barrel%, average exit velocity, and xSLG. Tonight, Machado will have a favorable matchup against a lefty who has had trouble giving up hard contact in Cristopher Sanchez.
In his young career, Sanchez has shown some flashes of being a quality arm for the Phillies, but he has given up a homer in his last three starts. He also is not getting guys to swing out of the zone and has been getting crushed on strikes.
Although Machado is having a down season overall, he still has fared very well against left-handed pitching, and with the way he was swinging the bat entering the break, he should be in an excellent spot to hit one out tonight.
Freddie Freeman (+420, FanDuel)
Freddie Freeman had the worst power-hitting season of his career in his first season with the Dodgers last year. He had a .186 ISO (the lowest Freeman has totaled since 2015) and a 10.1% Barrel%, which is still very solid but noticeably down from previous seasons.
This year, however, Freeman has found his power stroke and has been putting up some of the best power numbers of his career. He has a .236 ISO and ranks in the top 3% of the league in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. Freeman also ranks in the 80th percentile in Barrel% and has 17 home runs in just 89 games, compared to 21 home runs in 159 games last season.
He will have a tough challenge with Justin Verlander getting the start for the Mets, who has settled in nicely after having a rough start to the season. However, he ranks in the 21st percentile in HardHit%. His fastball, which typically has been one of — if not — his best pitch next to his slider, has a 55.2% HardHit% this season, and Freeman has always been a great fastball hitter.
On the season, Freeman has a .374 BA against the four-seamer, an SLG of .713, and a 50% HardHit%. This has been one of the best pound-for-pound seasons of his career, and with Verlander showing apparent signs of decline, Freeman is a good pick to go deep tonight.
Even if he does not get one off Verlander, the Mets’ bullpen has been a disaster as they have the third worst Barrel% and have given up the third-most home runs.
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