Welcome back to another exciting night of action on the diamond. While we only have 10 games on the schedule tonight, some great wagers are still out there, including anytime home run bets. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Monday, July 17.
Thanks to Manny Machado, we ended a brutal last week with a winner, cashing a +370 ticket. That saved us from entering the red on our home run props, and we are feeling good about tonight’s home run predictions. We have one of the game’s most exciting young power hitters tonight and a guy who we have yet to pick this season but still is swinging a hot bat.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Friday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (07/14/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 14-53 (+3.8u)
Gunnar Henderson (+540, FanDuel)
Gunnar Henderson was among the hottest players in baseball in June, slashing .320/.354/.640 with a .417 wOBA and a 171 wRC+. He also added six home runs and a BABIP of .400. Entering June, Henderson had struggled throughout the season, as he was only batting .203 with a .386 SLG. Since then, he has raised his batting average to .245 with a strong July and is slugging .462.
He also has been crushing the ball this season, ranking in the 74th percentile in Barrel% and 93rd for HardHit%. Henderson also ranks in the 91st percentile in average and max exit velocity, and he is in the league’s top half in xwOBA and xSLG, showing that he is due for an uptick in production.
Gunnar Henderson makes things even in Baltimore! pic.twitter.com/fruAw82xlA
— MLB (@MLB) July 16, 2023
Tonight, Henderson and the red-hot Baltimore Orioles will welcome in the equally hot Los Angeles Dodgers, but they have the advantage on the mound, which helps with Henderson’s odds of hitting a home run. Los Angeles will send out rookie Emmet Sheehan for his fifth major league start. While he has not been bad in his young career and is even due for some positive regression, he still has an HR/9 of 1.31 and allows a Barrel% of 10.3%.
Sheehan also ranks in the bottom 6% in max exit velocity. While his four-seamer has some great movement, his lack of breaking stuff will not fare well against Henderson, who has a 58.6% HardHit% against sliders this season. Henderson also hits the fastball very well, and against right-handed pitching, he has crushed the ball.
Lane Thomas (+440, FanDuel)
After a scorching-hot June, Lane Thomas has cooled off slightly in July but is still swinging a very hot bat. Since June, Thomas has been slashing .320/.358/.540 with a .898 OPS and six of his 14 home runs this season.
While he is not hitting the ball quite as hard as he did in his rookie season with the Cardinals, Thomas still has increased his Barrel rate by 2% and is making more contact on pitches in the zone. His expected numbers point towards regression, but he has been swinging a hot bat for well over a month now, and since June 1, he has a 42.5% HardHit% and has increased the amount of contact he is producing in the zone.
There are undeniable signs of decline from Thomas, but he still is hitting the ball harder than ever as a full-time player. He is going up against a lefty tonight, which he has crushed this year. Against southpaws, Thomas has a .652 SLG, 1.076 OPS, and a .278 ISO.
It also helps that the lefty he is facing, Drew Smyly, has had trouble keeping the ball in the park over his last five starts, with a 2.82 HR/9, 7.66 ERA, and 7.63 FIP. He also has walked 14 batters in 22.1 IP over his last five appearances, and he is giving up an alarming 71.6% contact rate on pitches out of the zone.
Although Thomas is not a significant power threat, he has been hitting the ball hard for over a month, has a favorable matchup against a lefty who gives up a lot of power, and the wind is blowing out hard to left-center, with BallParkPal.com giving Wrigley Field a 16% boost on home runs tonight.
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